Polls

Ohio Poll: Obama Bests All Challengers, Brown Up

Kyle Leighton | July 21, 2011, 9:44AM

President Barack Obama

As any political pundit worth his or her salt will tell you, you can't win the presidency as a Republican, Democratic, Whig or Bull Moose party member without winning the state of Ohio. Right now, President Barack Obama leads all GOP challengers there.

The quintessential swing state has done just that over the last two cycles, with Democrats making gains in 2006 and 2008 and Republicans taking some back 2010. In 2006, the Goverorship went Democratic for the first time in sixteen years, and incumbent GOP Sen. Mike DeWine lost his re-election bid in the wake of former Gov. Bob Taft (R) becoming the first Ohio Chief Executive to be convicted of a crime. In 2008, President Obama took the state by well over 200,000 votes.

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OH-SEN

GOP Challenger To Sherrod Brown Raises Big Bucks

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 13, 2011, 9:42AM

Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel

Progressive Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) may have a harder time getting reelected than some observers thought. Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R), a 33 year-old Iraq War vet and former state Representative in his first year of statewide elected office, raised $2.34 million in the last fundraising quarter, significantly more than the $1.5 million Brown hauled in between April and June.

Brown still has an impressive $3.5 million cash on hand for his reelection bid, and Mandel still has a Republican primary to deal with. In fact, Mandel has not yet made an official campaign announcement, though he's been raising money for a Senate races and gathering up endorsements for months.

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OH-SEN

As Kasich Sinks, Dem. Senator's Reelection Odds Get A Big Boost

Jon Terbush | March 16, 2011, 12:26PM

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Just two months ago, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) looked vulnerable to defeat heading into 2012. But now, amid a state-level showdown over union rights that has energized voters and sent Republican Gov. John Kasich's approval rating into a tailspin, a new PPP poll of registered voters finds Brown suddenly dominating a slate of potential Republican challengers.

In December, polls showed Brown in a precarious position, barely leading relatively unknown Republicans in hypothetical 2012 contests. But in the latest survey, Brown has suddenly shot ahead of his GOP rivals, such that he now leads each of them by double-digit margins; his lead over one challenger exploded from a miniscule 2 points in December to 19 in the latest poll.

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2012 elections

PPP Poll: Sherrod Brown Faces Tough Reelection Fight In Ohio

Jon Terbush | December 15, 2010, 3:13PM

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Is Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in big trouble in 2012?

In a PPP poll released today, Brown is tied in a hypothetical rematch with Mike DeWine, whom he beat by 12 points four years ago. Perhaps more concerning for Brown, he barely edges three other potential challengers despite the fact that they are each virtually unknown to over 60% of the electorate.

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OH-SEN

In Ohio, One Democrat Appears To Throw In The Towel

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 5:16PM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

Ohio is still a central battlefield for the 2010 election. Democrats in the state and elsewhere still think they have a real shot at keeping Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in office, and President Obama is heading back to the Buckeye State this weekend to help them do it. But for one Democrat, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the fight appears to be over.

As the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported yesterday, Fisher -- the Democratic nominee for Senate -- decided to turn what little campaign cash he has left -- $100,000 -- over to the state Democratic Party for general GOTV efforts.

Two weeks ago, "Fisher's campaign for U.S. Senate was down to $308,631 in its bank account," the paper reported. "Sums like that don't last long and replenishing it is a challenge when a candidate lags in the polls."

Though Fisher has promised "he is not abandoning the campaign or giving up" against former Rep. Rob Portman (R), the Columbus Dispatch reports that the move by Fisher "essentially drained his campaign treasury."

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OH-SEN

Don't Ask, Don't Tell Splits OH-SEN Debate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 13, 2010, 10:29AM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

Ohio voters got a stark look at their choice for Senate in last night's final debate of the contest. Vote Democrat, and you'll be supporting military service for open homosexuals. Vote Republican and you'll be supporting the status quo when it comes to Don't Ask, Don't Tell.

For months, the Senate race -- like all the major races in the Buckeye State this year -- has been defined by the economy. Republican nominee Rob Portman has pulled out to a huge lead in the polls on the back of ads slamming President Obama's economic policies and attempting to associate Democratic nominee Lee Fisher with Ohio's high unemployment. The plan appears to have worked: the TPM Poll Average shows Portman ahead 52.9-36.6, and most observers expect the campaign to end with a easy Portman victory.

But there are significant differences between the two candidates, as evidenced in last night's debate, and it's possible that some increased talk of social issues could rally the Democratic base that so far seems content to pay Fisher little mind.

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OH-SEN

Polls: GOPer Portman Surging In OH-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 6, 2010, 2:56PM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

In the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH), Republican nominee and former Rep. Rob Portman appears to be in prime position to keep Republican control of the Senate seat.

This morning, a Quinnipiac poll of the Ohio race was released and found the Republican leading Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 55%-36% (the previous Q poll, from mid-September, put Portman up 20). Earlier this week, a Fox News poll had the race at 53%-37% (the previous Fox News poll put Portman up 13).

In the last month of polling, the narrowest margin produced for the contest was Portman leading by seven points.

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OH-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Dem Strickland Trails, Struggling With Independents In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 5, 2010, 9:17AM

OH Gov. Ted Strickland

The new Quinnipiac University poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race shows incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) closing the gap with his opponent, Republican nominee John Kasich, but still trailing badly among the all-important independent vote.

The Q poll of likely voters shows Kasich ahead 50-41. The last poll of the race taken by the firm, released in mid-September, showed Kasich ahead 54-37. Strickland's momentum here echoes other recent polls of the contest that have shown Strickland picking up steam. The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich leading 49.6-41.5.

Despite the apparent good news here for Dems, the new Q poll suggests that Strickland still has quite an uphill climb in the final four weeks of campaigning.

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OH-SEN

Poll: GOPer Running Away With OH-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 2:26PM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

A new poll of the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) shows Republicans are looking pretty likely to retain the seat. The University of Cincinnati poll of likely voters shows GOP nominee Rob Portman with a huge lead over his Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher. The poll shows Portman leading 55-40.

The last University of Cincinnati poll of the race -- from May -- showed Fisher up 47-46.

Internals show the race skewing toward the Republican across the state, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, a co-sponsor of the poll.

"Portman's lead in southwest Ohio, his home base, is astronomical -- he has 66 percent support to Fisher's 28 percent," the paper reports. "But in Fisher's backyard - northeast Ohio -- the race is nearly a dead heat -- 47 percent Fisher, 49 percent Portman."

Past polling suggests the lead in the new poll is no fluke. The TPM Poll Average shows Portman leading 49.3-39.2.

Trend lines show that Portman is in danger of running away with election as early voting begins next week:

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American Crossroads

Rove-Backed Group Pushing Out More Ads In Senate Races (VIDEOS)

Eric Kleefeld | September 22, 2010, 3:04PM

Ad from American Crossroads, "Not My Job"

American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-backed group that is spending heavily on ads for this year's Senate races, has been rolling out a whole bunch of ads in some top races.

An ad against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) reprises a theme from an earlier Crossroads ad, hammering Reid for his past remarks on the Senate floor about how "only" 36,000 jobs had been lost in a previous month, which was "really good."

Then the announcer uses a clever turn of phrase: "Harry Reid. Extremely out of touch with Nevada." Look at that as a clear effort to counter Reid's ads, which have derided Republican nominee Sharron Angle as being "extreme."

The TPM Poll Average puts Reid ahead by 47.2%-44.0%.

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OH-Gov

Fox News Poll: GOPers Continue To Lead Dems In OH-GOV And OH-SEN

Marc Kilstein | September 21, 2010, 1:04PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Recent polls have suggested that Ohio's high-profile Democratic candidates are falling increasingly behind in the Senate and gubernatorial races, with no indication of a coming momentum shift. A new Fox News poll doesn't really change that narrative.

The survey, conducted by Rasmussen offshoot Pulse Opinion Research using an automated dialing system, finds both Democratic nominees, Gov. Ted Strickland and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, behind in the polls. Republican former Rep. John Kasich is leading Strickland by six points in the gubernatorial race, 47%-41%. In the Senate race, Republican nominee and former Rep. Rob Portman is up big on Fisher, 49%-36%.

When Fox polled both of these contests on September 11, Kasich was found on top of the gubernatorial race, 48%-43% and Portman was ahead of Fisher in the Senate race, 48%-41%. In other polling last week, Strickland was found to be as much as 17 points behind Kasich and Fisher was seen trailing by 20.

The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race shows Kasich ahead of Strickland 49.8%-40.9%. For the Senate race, the TPM Poll Average has Portman ahead 48.6%-39.1%.

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OH-GOV

Trouble Brewing For Ohio Dems: Polls Show Major GOP Momentum In Key Races

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 17, 2010, 8:45AM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

The Republican nominees for Governor and Senator in the crucial presidential swing state of Ohio appear poised to run away with their respective races, according to the latest polls. The situation is not as dire for the Democratic nominee for Senate, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, as it appears to be for Gov. Ted Strickland, who public polls suggest could be in free fall against his Republican opponent, former Rep. John Kasich. But neither Dems look to be in great shape.

Democrats on the ground in Ohio scoff at the notion that the situation is especially bad for their high-profile Democratic candidates, but the numbers really don't look good. And there's at least one report that national Democrats could be considering pulling up stakes in the Buckeye State and sending valuable resources elsewhere to shore up Democratic candidates with better chances in other states.

Publicly released polls of likely voters from Quinnipiac University, CNN/Time and SurveyUSA this week show Strickland down big against his Republican opponent. The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 50.0-40.9. (The average doesn't include the SurveyUSA poll which showed Kasich leading Strickland 52-40 on a general election ballot featuring Green and Libertarian nominees.) Trendlines show that Kasich is taking off like a rocket lately, while Strickland is actually losing support.

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OH-SEN

Pair Of Rasmussen-Produced Polls Show GOPer With Big Lead In OH-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 14, 2010, 3:34PM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

Two polls from the Rasmussen polling empire out today show the Republican nominee for Senate in Ohio, Rob Portman, with a big lead over his Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher.

The first poll was commissioned by Fox News through Rasmussen's Pulse Opinion Research subsidiary. Conducted Saturday among 1000 likely voters, it shows Portman ahead 48-41. The second poll, conducted by Rasmussen on Sept. 13, shows Portman ahead 49-41.

Past numbers on the race, from non-Rasmussen pollsters, have also shown the Republican with a sizable lead. A much discussed Columbus Dispatch poll from Sept. 3 shows Portman ahead 50-37.

The TPM Poll Average shows Portman ahead 46.6-40.2.

2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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2010 elections

Obama To Campaign For Reid, Other Top Senate Candidates

Eric Kleefeld | September 9, 2010, 3:22PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama

President Obama will be hitting the campaign trail for the home stretch of several top-tier races this fall -- including for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada.

The Democratic National Committee today announced a series of Obama events. The appearance with Reid will be held October 22 in Las Vegas.

Other appearances on tap are: September 28 in Madison, Wisconsin, where Sen. Russ Feingold is up for re-election; October 10 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is facing Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey for Senate; and October 17 in Ohio, where Democrat Lee Fisher is facing Republican Rob Portman for Senate.

Late Update: As Greg Sargent reports, Feingold will not be at the event in Wisconsin.

OH-SEN

Ohio Polls Show GOPers Ahead In SEN, GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 6, 2010, 5:23PM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

It's a good time to be running for statewide office in Ohio if you're a Republican. That's the message from a pair of polls out this weekend showing Republican nominees for Senate and governor in Ohio with big leads over their Democratic rivals.

The polls were conducted by the Columbus Dispatch Aug. 25-Sept. 3. Surveys were mailed to respondents by the paper and then returned. The total number of respondents is 1,622 and the margin of error is 2.2%.

In the race for Ohio's open Senate seat, Republican Rob Portman is leading Democratic nominee Lee Fisher 50-37 in the Dispatch poll. The TPM Poll Average for that race shows Portman ahead 45.7-40.0.

Recent surveys have shown Portman gaining momentum in the contest as the final two months of campaigning begins:

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OH-SEN

PPP Poll: GOPer Portman Leads By 7 Points In Ohio Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 11:31AM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

The new survey of the Ohio Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican Rob Portman taking the lead against Democrat Lee Fisher -- and being helped immensely by the enthusiasm gap of Republicans being far more motivated to vote than Democrats are.

The numbers: Portman 45%, Fisher 38%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from late June, Fisher had an edge of 40%-38%. The TPM Poll Average gives Portman a lead of 44.8%-40.4%.

A key tell is that in the June poll, respondents said that they voted for Obama in 2008 by a margin of 50%-44%. (This question never adds up to 100%, because some voters will not divulge their past choice, and others are new to the electorate.) In the new poll, though, respondents said they voted for John McCain, by a 48%-45% margin -- in a state that Obama actually carried by 51%-47%.

"Democrats almost everywhere are suffering not just from independents leaning toward Republicans but from a base problem--fewer of their voters are planning to show up at the polls than even in usual midterm elections, and those who do are not as unified around their nominees as are Republican voters around theirs," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "Lee Fisher has to galvanize his base to win this race. If only 40% of the electorate is Democrats, and only 70% of them vote for him, he loses."

OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Portman Leads Ohio Senate Race By Six

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 31, 2010, 11:05AM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

Former Bush administration official Rob Portman's (R) lead in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) has shrunk to six points, according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today.

Portman leads Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 47-41 in the new survey of 750 likely voters, conducted Aug. 29. The margin of error is 4%. In the last Rasmussen poll of the race, conducted Aug. 16, Portman led 48-39.

Both polls include results from "leaners," respondents who first say they are undecided about the race and are then pressed by the pollster to make a decision about which candidate they're more likely to support in the end. "Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant," Rasmussen writes. "Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more."

With campaign season essentially fully underway, the results of the Rasmussen poll suggests that Fisher has at least a fighting chance in the contest. Since his convincing win in the bitter Democratic primary May 4, Fisher's campaign has been plagued by bad press, including reports of numerous staff shakeups and low fundraising totals.

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OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Portman Widens Lead In Ohio Senate Race

Marc Kilstein | August 17, 2010, 12:20PM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

A new Rasmussen poll released today has Republican Rob Portman leading Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 48%-39% in Ohio's Senate race.

This is the largest lead held by the Republican nominee over the last few months of polling. Notably, the latest Rasmussen survey includes "leaners" -- or respondents who do not initially indicate a preference for either candidate, but when pressed in a follow-up, declare that they are leaning towards a particular nominee. The survey showed a slightly narrower eight-point margin for respondents' initial preferences, with Portman up 45%-37%. An August 2 Rasmussen poll gave the Republican a four-point lead, 44%-40%, but that poll did not press those surveyed beyond their initial responses.

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OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Portman Leads Fisher By 4 In OH-SEN

Thomas Rhiel | August 4, 2010, 1:53PM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

Republican Rob Portman leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in Ohio's Senate race, a new Rasmussen poll shows. The poll, released today, puts Portman ahead of Fisher 44%-40%.

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OH-SEN

Ohio GOPer Rob Portman Fractures Collarbone

Ben Frumin | July 13, 2010, 9:37AM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

Ohio Republican Senate nominee Rob Portman has fractured his collarbone in a mountain biking accident, he announced on Twitter.

just got out of x-ray, fractured my collarbone mtn biking w my son Will. will be in a sling for a couple weeks. great ride until i fell!

The TPM Poll Average shows Democrat Lee Fisher leading Portman 42.5-41.4.

OH-SEN

GOPer Portman Raising Fat Stacks In Ohio Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 8, 2010, 11:07AM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

Republican Rob Portman is sitting pretty at the end of second quarter fundraising in the Ohio Senate race. The former Congressman and Bush Administration official hauled in $2.65 million between April and June, bringing his total cash on hand to an impressive $8.8 million in the race against Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the Democratic nominee.

Fisher has not released his fundraising numbers yet, but Portman's figures show that the Republicans are more than ready to play for the open Ohio seat.

The race is sure to be one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it's still either party's to win. The TPM Poll Average shows the race to be a dead heat, with Fisher drawing 42.5% of the vote to Portman's 41.4%

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OH-SEN

Ohio GOPer's New Ad: Now Is The Time To Attack Cap-And-Trade

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 6, 2010, 9:08AM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

Rob Portman, the Republican Party's Senate nominee in Ohio, has chosen today -- when a blistering heat wave is baking the East Coast and oil continues to pour into the Gulf of Mexico -- to launch a new TV ad attacking Democratic plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the nation's dependence on foreign oil. In a new TV ad running in Ohio, Portman warns against "a new energy tax coming our way from Washington that's a job killer for Ohio."

"It's called cap-and-trade," Portman says in the ad.

Watch:

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OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Kasich Leads Dem Strickland In OH-GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 5, 2010, 1:10PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Despite a slew of negative press over the past two weeks, former Rep. John Kasich (R) is building a lead on incumbent Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today which shows Kasich leading Strickland 47-40.

Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters on June 29. The new poll has a margin of error of 4.5%. A similar poll taken by Rasmussen on June 3 showed Kasich ahead 47-42. But other recent polling of the race has shown the race to be closer than that, and some show Strickland in the lead.

The TPM Poll Average shows the race to be a dead heat (Strickland's ahead in the average by a margin of 43.3-42.9.)

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OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Portman Narrowly Ahead In OH-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | July 2, 2010, 10:21AM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Ohio Senate race gives Republican former Congressman and ex-Bush administration official Rob Portman a narrow lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, in the race for the seat of retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich.

The numbers: Portman 43%, Fisher 39%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, the two were tied at 43%-43%.

Two other polls from yesterday, one Public Policy Polling (D) and the other from Quinnipiac, gave Fisher narrow leads -- but in any case, the race is definitely too close to call. The TPM Poll Average gives Fisher an edge of 42.5%-41.4%.

OH-SEN

PPP Poll: Dem Fisher Leads GOPer Portman By Two Points In OH-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | June 30, 2010, 1:31PM

OH Senate candidates Lee Fisher (D) and Rob Portman (R)

The new survey of the Ohio Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher a narrow edge against Republican Rob Portman, a former Congressman and Bush administration official. The key takeaway: Even though Obama's popularity has gone downhill in this perennial swing state, Portman's ties to Washington are tripping him up.

The numbers: Fisher 40%, Portman 38%. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous general election poll from March, during the Democratic primary between Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Portman led Fisher by 41%-36%.

These numbers come on the same day as a Quinnipiac poll, which gave Fisher a similar lead of 42%-40%. The TPM Poll Average has Fisher ahead by 43.3%-41.0%.

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OH-SEN

Poll: Fisher Leading Portman By Two Points In OH-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | June 30, 2010, 9:21AM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Ohio Senate race gives Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher a narrow lead over Republican former Rep. Rob Portman, in the race for the open GOP-held seat of retiring Sen. George Voinovich. And in a key internal figure, both candidates remain virtual unknowns with the wider electorate.

The numbers: Fisher 42%, Portman 40%. The survey of registered voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous poll from late April, Fisher led by a similar figure of 40%-37%. The TPM Poll Average has Fisher leading Portman by 44.3%-41.9%. This race is one of the major toss-ups of the cycle, with Vice President Joe Biden in Cleveland today to raise money for Fisher.

From the pollster's analysis: "The Senate race remains far, far from any kind of clear picture, mostly because neither candidate is well known to Ohioans. Even though Fisher has been a figure in Ohio politics for two decades, 54 percent of voters say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Portman, 66 percent can't rate him. With four months until Election Day the Senate race is wide, wide open."

OH-SEN

Poll: Anybody's Race In OH-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 7, 2010, 6:38PM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

A new poll from Rasmussen confirms recent polling showing that former Bush administration official Rob Portman (R) is running neck-and-neck with Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D). The new Rasmussen poll, taken June 3 among 500 likely voters, shows the two men locked in a dead heat, 43-43. The margin of error is 4.5%.

Other recent polls have shown a similar result. A May 20 University Of Cincinnati poll showed Fisher head by just one point, 47-46, with a margin of error of 3.8%.

The TPM Poll Average also shows the race is tied up. Fisher leads the average by a margin of 44.1-42.0.

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OH-SEN

Poll: Dem Fisher Has One-Point Edge In OH-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | May 28, 2010, 11:20AM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

The new University of Cincinnati poll of the Ohio Senate race gives Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher a one-point lead over Republican ex-Congressman and former Bush administration official Rob Portman.

The numbers: Fisher 47%, Portman 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.8%. The TPM Poll Average gives Fisher a lead over Portman of 43.6%-41.5%.

This race, to succeed retiring two-term GOP Sen. George Voinovich, is in a big perennial swing state that will likely see a lot of money and manpower put into it. Barack Obama carried ohio by 52%-47% in 2008, after it voted twice for George W. Bush by narrow margins. This current poll also gives Obama a 46% approval rating in the state, with a slightly higher 49% disapproval.

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OH-SEN

Poll: Dem Fisher Has One-Point Lead in Ohio Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | May 7, 2010, 2:44PM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Ohio Senate race shows Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher enjoying a bump from his win in this past Tuesday's primary, gaining a one-point edge on Republican former Congressman and ex-Bush administration official Rob Portman.

The numbers: Fisher 43%, Portman 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, while Fisher was fighting it out with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner for the Democratic nomination, Portman led Fisher by 43%-38% and led Brunner by 45%-38%. The TPM Poll Average for the race currently gives Fisher a lead of 41.5%-39.8%.

As the pollster's analysis notes: "But as is often the case after a primary is over, party support lines up behind the chosen nominee. It remains to be seen whether the new numbers reflect a temporary bounce or a lasting change in the race."

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Lee Fisher

Ohio GOP Web Video Sets Topless Shot Of Dem To Smooth Jazz (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | May 5, 2010, 3:53PM

LT. Gov Lee Fisher (D-OH), OH Senate candidate

Political candidates are forced to expose much -- just usually not their chests.

Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher beat Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner last night to win the Democratic nomination for Senator, and a new GOP web video mercilessly juxtaposes an image of Fisher topless with a smooth jazz soundtrack.

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OH-SEN

AP: Fisher Wins Democratic Nomination In Ohio Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 4, 2010, 10:09PM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

In the final result of a trio of competitive Senate primaries tonight, the AP is reporting that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher easily beat Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner to win the Democratic nomination tonight.

The result pits Fisher against former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a battle for the open seat vacated by Sen. George Voinovich (R). The TPM Poll Average of that matchup shows that race to be a dead heat, with Fisher leading by a margin of 40.5-39.2.

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2010 elections

Off To The Races: Days Away From Primaries In IN, NC, OH

Evan McMorris-Santoro | April 29, 2010, 9:11AM

A woman voting

May is just around the corner, and with it comes one of the busiest months for primaries in 2010. By the time the month is out, we'll have nominees in ten states, including some of the most closely-watched races of the year. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Before we get to the big races Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas (May 18), there are several smaller, relatively below-the-radar primaries to look out for next week.

The May 4 primaries will decide which Republican is going to try and take back Evan Bayh's Senate seat in Indiana, and which Democrat is going to get the chance at knocking off Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). In Ohio, the Democratic Senate primary has drawn some real excitement from progressives, if not much attention from national observers.

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OH-SEN

Ohio Secretary Of State Bungles FEC Forms For Her Senate Campaign

Rachel Slajda | April 23, 2010, 11:44AM

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who's running for the Democratic nomination in the U.S. Senate race there, appears to have failed to correctly report her staffers' salaries, the Plain Dealer reported this week.

Instead of itemizing their salaries, Brunner lumped them altogether in a single payment to a payroll company. The payment in the first quarter of 2010 was $37,000.

But according to Federal Election Commission rules, any payment above $200 must be itemized.

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OH-SEN

Poll: GOPer Portman Has Narrow Lead In Ohio Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | April 2, 2010, 2:02PM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

The new Rasmussen poll in Ohio gives Republican candidate Rob Portman a small lead in the open Senate race for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich.

Portman, a former Congressman and Bush administration official, leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 43%-38%, and leads Dem Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner by 45%-38%. These numbers are not significantly changed from Rasmussen's poll last month.

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2010 elections

Poll: Dems Lead In Key Ohio Races

Eric Kleefeld | March 31, 2010, 10:43AM

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D-OH) and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D-OH)

The new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio shows the Democratic candidates leading in the gubernatorial race, plus the election for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich -- with the potential for a Democratic turnaround in the wake of the health care bill's passage.

In the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner were each tested against Republican Rob Portman, a former Congressman and former Bush administration official. Fisher leads Portman by 41%-37%, and Brunner has an edge of 38%-37%. In February, Portman led Fisher by 40%-37%, and led Brunner by 40%-35%. The margin of error is ±2.5%. The TPM Poll Average gives Portman an edge of 39.6%-38.6% over Fisher, and a 39.4%-38.1% edge over Brunner, with recent movement in the Democrats' direction.

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OH-SEN

Poll: Ohio Dem Senate Primary Up In The Air

Eric Kleefeld | March 30, 2010, 9:49AM

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D-OH) and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D-OH)

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows that in the run-up to the May 4 Democratic primary for Senate, the big leader in the race is..."undecided," with this race way up in the air.

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has 33% support, while Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner has 26%. Another one percent answered "someone else," and 40% are undecided. Furthermore, among those respondents who did express a choice, only 31% said their minds are made up, and 65% could change their minds.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Rob Portman, a former Congressman and Bush administration official. The Dem primary poll does give Fisher a possible leg-up in this regard: 37% think he is the one more likely to win a general election, compared to only 18% who say the same about Brunner.

OH-SEN

Poll: GOPer Portman Has Narrow Lead In Ohio Senate Race, Obama Unpopular

Eric Kleefeld | March 24, 2010, 3:34PM

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

The new survey of Ohio by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman a narrow lead in the race for the open seat of retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich. But more importantly, a lot will ultimately ride on President Obama's popularity or lack thereof in November -- and as of right now, Obama is not doing too well in Ohio.

The poll of registered voters finds that Portman, a former Congressman and ex-Bush administration official, leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 41%-36%, and has a statistically insignificant edge of 38%-37% over Dem Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, with a ±3.9% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Portman a lead of 40.8%-37.2% over Fisher, and a lead of 40.9%-37.9% over Brunner.

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2010 elections

Ohio Republicans Crack Birther Jokes When Introducing Senate Candidate Rob Portman (AUDIO)

Christina Bellantoni | March 9, 2010, 1:16PM

Former State Rep. Jim Buchy (R-OH) and Rep. Jim Zehringer (R-OH)

Two Ohio Republicans this weekend made birther jokes questioning President Obama's citizenship status at a local fundraising dinner starring Senate candidate and former Bush administration official Rob Portman.

Master of ceremonies and former state Rep. Jim Buchy, president of Buchy Food Service, opened his remarks at the Darke County Lincoln Day Dinner Saturday with a comparison between Obama and the 16th president.

According to audio recorded by someone at the dinner and obtained by TPMDC, the joke concludes with: "Lincoln was a skinny lawyer. Obama is a skinny lawyer. Lincoln was a Republican. Obama is a skinny lawyer. Lincoln was highly respected. Obama is a skinny lawyer. Lincoln was born in the United States. Obama is a skinny lawyer."

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