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2010 elections
It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)
Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.
Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.
But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: 2010 elections, AK-SEN, AR-SEN, CA-SEN, CO-SEN, CT-SEN, DE-SEN, HI-SEN, IL-SEN, IN-SEN, KY-SEN, MD-SEN, ND-SEN, NV-SEN, NY-SEN, OR-SEN, PA-SEN, Polls, Senate '10, VT-SEN, WA-SEN, WI-SEN, WV-SEN
Ron Wyden
NRSC Says Wyden Has Lost Touch With Voters From The Evergreen State -- But He's From Oregon
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR)
If the NRSC wants to paint Oregon Senator Ron Wyden as an out of touch D.C. Democrat, they're gonna have to try harder.
"Despite his claims that he is 'like Oregon,' it's clear from Ron Wyden's record that he has simply lost touch with his constituents during his 14 years in Washington," reads a recent NRSC press release. "Senator Wyden is a career politician who has championed a reckless economic agenda that has driven our national debt to a staggering $13 trillion and failed to create jobs as the Evergreen State's unemployment has skyrocketed to 10.6 percent."
But it's hard to blame Wyden for abandoning the voters of the Evergreen State, because it's a totally different state from the one he represents in the Senate. Washington is the Evergreen State. Wyden enjoys the distinction of representing the Beaver State, Orgeon.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: 2010 elections, NRSC, OR-SEN, Ron Wyden, Senate '10
2010 elections
Races To Watch Tomorrow: It's Not Just The Big Senate Primaries
PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)
All eyes are on the big Senate primaries tomorrow in Arkansas, Kentucky And Pennsylvania -- but there are some other races going on, too, which could have important repercussions for the fall.
One of the top races to watch will be the special election for the Johnstown-area district formerly held by the late Rep. John Murtha, who passed away in February. The TPM Poll Average gives Republican businessman Tim Burns an edge of 43.0%-42.4% over Democratic candidate and former Murtha aide Mark Critz. A key X-factor in the race is that Democratic turnout could be disproportionately high in this swing district, because the election is being held at the same time as the regular statewide primaries. There are far more contested Democratic primaries than Republican ones -- most notably the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak -- and this could disproportionately drive Dem voters to the polls.
Murtha was first elected in a 1974 special election, picking it up from the Republicans in the middle of the Watergate scandals, and held the seat for 36 years until his death in February 2010. The district voted for John McCain in 2008 by a margin of less than one point -- the only district in the country to switch from John Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008, having voted for Kerry 51%-48% in 2004. CQ, Stuart Rothenberg, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato all rate this race as a toss-up.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: 2010 elections, AR-01, AR-02, AR-03, Chris Dudley, House '10, John Kitzhaber, Mark Critz, OR-GOV, OR-SEN, PA-12, Senate '10, Tim Burns
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