2010 elections

Howard Dean Tells TPMDC: 'Big Night' For Progressives

Christina Bellantoni | May 19, 2010, 2:30AM

Former DNC Chairman Howard Dean.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said in an interview that Tuesday's elections look like a "pretty big sweep" for progressives. "They are having a big night," he said.

"My belief is that progressive Dems are a lot more appealing to mainstream voters than tea party advocates," Dean told me in an interview just after Rep. Joe Sestak was declared the winner over Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary.

"This is a big night for people who really want Washington to be a change agent," Dean said, adding the results show a "backlash" against both parties in official Washington. Dean, also former governor of Vermont and a 2004 presidential candidate, said he views Jack Conway as the progressive choice in Kentucky and said Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's forcing of a runoff in Arkansas proves that candidates on the left can prevail.

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PA-12

Democrats Win Special Election In PA-12

Christina Bellantoni | May 18, 2010, 10:32PM

Rep-elect Mark Critz (D-PA)

Mark Critz (D-PA) appeared to narrowly win a special election today to fill the late Rep. John Murtha's seat, a victory the Democrats believe means the fall midterm elections might not be so bad after all. He'll be quickly seated by House leadership once results are finalized.

Critz was leading Republican Tim Burns with 53 percent of the vote to Burns' 45 percent and 70 percent of precincts reporting, and Burns conceded the race around 10:30 p.m. In an unusual twist, both candidates are aiming to be on the November ballot. Critz was on track to prevail in a party primary to be the nominee in the general election, and if Burns' lead for his primary holds steady, these two candidates will be matched up again in November.

The Dem turnout was boosted by a competitive Senate primary between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak, one reason the majority party had been sounding quite confident about the race for several days. Critz was fueled as well by labor activists and Democratic volunteers who made calls and knocked on doors for weeks to help keep the seat. Former President Bill Clinton stumped for Critz over the weekend.

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PA-SEN

Sestak Defeats Specter For Democratic Nod In Pa.

Christina Bellantoni | May 18, 2010, 10:17PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)

Updated at 11:44 ET

Rep. Joe Sestak has defeated Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary for the Senate seat Specter held as a Republican for nearly three decades, an upset reinforcing that this fall might be a tough slog for incumbents. Sestak was leading Specter with 54 percent of the vote to Specter's 46 percent. There were 95 percent of precincts reporting and Specter conceded after several news outlets called the race. Sestak will face Republican Pat Toomey in November.

Specter, 80, has been a key ally of President Obama's White House since being one of just three Republicans to back the $787 billion economic stimulus plan in February 2009. Ironically, that's the vote that started to seriously harm his political chances as more and more Republicans defected to Toomey. He switched parties on April 28, 2009, declaring he'd looked at his "bleak" poll numbers and wanted to remain in office. "I am not prepared to have my 29-year record in the United States Senate decided by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate," Specter said then. He said he wouldn't be a rubber stamp 60th vote, but became a reliable supporter of the Democrats' agenda including health care reform.

But for all of his support from Obama, Gov. Ed Rendell and the battleground state's powerful Democratic machine, Specter was haunted by his past relationship with former President George W. Bush. Sestak ran a tough ad showing Specter and Bush side-by-side, and his team banked on Democrats having long memories that they'd been voting against Specter for years.

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PA-12

What To Watch For In Tonight's PA-12 Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | May 18, 2010, 6:19PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

The two candidates vying for the late John Murtha's set have been battling in a race that's been neck and neck for the last two months. So it's no surprise this race is going to depend on voter turnout -- which is lower today because of the rain -- and where the parties can get their supporters out.

Terry Madonna, the well-known political analyst at Franklin & Marshall College told us that for Critz to win, he will need a big margin in the Democratic strongholds of Cambria County, particularly in the Johnstown area, and in Westmoreland county, particular in the New Kensington area.

PA-12

Confident Dems Goad GOP By Calling PA-12 A 'Must-Win' For Republicans Today

Christina Bellantoni | May 18, 2010, 3:20PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

Democrats and the White House are pointing to a lesser noticed special election in southwestern Pennsylvania today, saying that result will have far more import than the results of contentious party primaries statewide there and in Arkansas and Kentucky. Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz are locked in a close battle to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) in the 12th Congressional district. If Democrats keep that seat in a battleground district, they think that bodes well for this fall.

Murtha held the seat for more than three decades, weathering multiple challenges. It was the only district that voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004 (51%-49%) but which Barack Obama lost in 2008 by less than one percentage point. Al Gore handily won the district in 2000.

"If the bottom were really falling out the GOP should be walking away with this race," a Democrat close to the White House told me. Given the district demographics, the tough year for the majority party and the president's diminished approval ratings, Republicans have a great chance at a pickup, the source said. "Even if it's close it's a good sign for us."

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2010 elections

Races To Watch Tomorrow: It's Not Just The Big Senate Primaries

Eric Kleefeld | May 17, 2010, 12:29PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

All eyes are on the big Senate primaries tomorrow in Arkansas, Kentucky And Pennsylvania -- but there are some other races going on, too, which could have important repercussions for the fall.

One of the top races to watch will be the special election for the Johnstown-area district formerly held by the late Rep. John Murtha, who passed away in February. The TPM Poll Average gives Republican businessman Tim Burns an edge of 43.0%-42.4% over Democratic candidate and former Murtha aide Mark Critz. A key X-factor in the race is that Democratic turnout could be disproportionately high in this swing district, because the election is being held at the same time as the regular statewide primaries. There are far more contested Democratic primaries than Republican ones -- most notably the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak -- and this could disproportionately drive Dem voters to the polls.

Murtha was first elected in a 1974 special election, picking it up from the Republicans in the middle of the Watergate scandals, and held the seat for 36 years until his death in February 2010. The district voted for John McCain in 2008 by a margin of less than one point -- the only district in the country to switch from John Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008, having voted for Kerry 51%-48% in 2004. CQ, Stuart Rothenberg, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato all rate this race as a toss-up.

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PA-12

Poll: Dead Heat In Race For Murtha's House Seat

Eric Kleefeld | May 17, 2010, 9:22AM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

The new survey of the PA-12 special election by Public Policy Polling (D) shows a dead heat in tomorrow's election for the House seat formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, with Republican businessman Tim Burns having a bare one-point edge over Democratic candidate and former Murtha aide Mark Critz.

The numbers: Burns 48%, Critz 47%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.4% margin of error. In the last PPP survey from a month ago, Burns had a lead of 44%-41%. The TPM Poll Average gives Burns a lead of 43.0%-42.4%.

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PA-12

As Clock Winds Down, Money Flows Into Race For Murtha's House Seat

Eric Kleefeld | May 13, 2010, 1:44PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

Along with the high-profile Senate primaries this Tuesday, another race to watch will be the PA-12 special election, for the Johnstown-area House seat formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha. Democratic candidate Mark Critz, a former Murtha aide, and businessman Tim Burns are fighting it out for the swing seat -- and a lot of money has been spent along the way.

In the most recent federal filings, the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent a total of nearly $960,000 on the race, including a $230,000 expenditure in the last few days. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $937,000, including $291,000 in the last few days. The candidates have also raised a lot of money, and spent the majority of it so far: Burns has raised a total of $1.18 million, including $380,000 of his own money, and Critz has raised about $784,000.

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PA-12

Poll: GOPer Leads Race For Murtha Seat

Eric Kleefeld | April 30, 2010, 1:30PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the PA-12 special election gives Republican businessman Tim Burns the edge in the race for the House seat formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha.

The numbers: Burns 46%, with Democratic candidate and former Murtha aide Mark Critz at 40%. The sample of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. The Democrats have held this seat since 1974, when Murtha picked it up from the Republicans in a special election held in the midst of the Watergate scandals. The special election will be held on May 18. The TPM Poll Average gives Burns a lead of 43.0%-40.3%

Two key numbers: President Obama's favorable rating in this western Pennsylvania seat is only 38%, with an unfavorable rating of 55%. Respondents were also asked this question: "Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely?" The answer: candidate who supports the bill 34%, candidate who would repeal the bill 48%.

PA-12

DCCC Ad Attacks GOPer Burns On Jobs In Race For Murtha Seat (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | April 27, 2010, 6:40PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a new TV ad in the PA-12 special election, to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Democratic Rep. John Murtha. The new ad depicts Republican businessman as somebody that voters can't trust -- alleging that he helped ship local jobs overseas.

"Millionaire Tim Burns sold his company -- sold it to a corporation that used a tax loophole, which encourages sending American jobs overseas," the announcer says. "Burns got rich, even though he knew there may be layoffs in Pittsburgh."

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Jobs

Biden Predicts 100K-200K Jobs Next Month

Eric Kleefeld | April 23, 2010, 6:19PM

Vice President Joe Biden

Vice President Biden predicted today that the economy will add between 100,000-200,000 jobs next month, and between 250,000-500,000 jobs per month in time thereafter.

Biden made his comments while campaigning for Mark Critz, the Democratic nominee in the May 18 special election for the House seat in Pennsylvania formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha. "All in all we're going to be creating somewhere between 100 and 200,000 jobs next month, I predict," Biden said, according to the pool report from the Pittsburg Tribune-Review.

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PA-12

Gingrich And Biden To Campaign In Special Election For Murtha Seat

Eric Kleefeld | April 21, 2010, 10:08AM

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) and Vice President Joe Biden

Some big names are headed in to campaign in the special election for the Pennsylvania House district formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha: Vice President Joe Biden for Democrat Mark Critz, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) for Republican Tim Burns.

Gingrich will headline a private fundraiser for Burns on Thursday, with a ticket cost of $150 for the general reception and $4,800 for a VIP event. Biden will campaign for Critz on Thursday.

Two recent polls show a toss-up in the race, with a possible edge for Burns due to the unpopularity of President Obama in the district. However, it must also be noted that the special election will be held on May 18, the same day as the statewide primaries. There are more contested Democratic races than Republican ones that day, and this could potentially boost Democratic turnout for Critz.

PA-12

Polls: Toss-Up In Race For Murtha's Seat

Eric Kleefeld | April 20, 2010, 12:25PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

Two new surveys show a toss-up result in the special election for the House seat in Pennsylvania formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, with a possible edge to the Republicans.

In a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D): Republican businessman Tim Burns 44%, Democratic nominee and former Murtha staffer Mark Critz 41%. Two key numbers form the internals are that President Obama's approval is only 33% in the district, with 57% disapproval, and likely voters also oppose the new health care reform law by a margin of 59%-28%. The Democrat Critz recently ran an ad declaring his own opposition to the health care bill.

"It's going to be somewhat amazing if Mark Critz wins this race given the way voters in his district feel about Barack Obama," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "His low ratings are something a long time incumbent like Murtha might have been able to weather, but you wouldn't expect Democrats to win an open seat anywhere that gives Obama an approval rating under 40%. Still it remains a toss up with a month to go before the election."

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PA-12

Dem Candidate For Murtha's Seat Releases Ad Opposing Health Care Reform (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | April 19, 2010, 9:35AM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

Mark Critz, the Democratic nominee in the special election for the House seat of the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), has a message in his latest ad: He opposed the health care bill, and he is not a liberal.

In his new ad, Critz responds to an ad from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which attacked "liberals like Mark Critz" for passing the health care bill.

"That ad's not true," Critz says in his new TV spot. "I opposed the health care bill. And I'm pro-life, and pro-gun. That's not liberal."

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PA-12

GOP Ad Goes After Health Care Bill In PA-12 Special Election (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | April 12, 2010, 1:33PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

The National Republican Congressional Committee is making the health care bill a bit issue in the upcoming May 18 special election for the Pennsylvania House seat formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, with a new TV ad attacking Dem nominee and ex-Murtha staffer Mark Critz.

"Americans said 'no' to government-run health care. But Congress and liberals like Mark Critz didn't listen," the announcer says. The phrasing makes it seem almost as if Critz is already the incumbent, though he was not in Congress for these votes. (Murtha voted for the House health care bill this past November, and there is no reason to think he would have voted otherwise on the final bill in March if he had not passed away in February.)

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PA-12

Poll: Dem Candidate Starts With Narrow Lead For Murtha's Former House Seat

Eric Kleefeld | March 18, 2010, 1:27PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

The new Susquehanna (R) poll of the special election for Pennsylvania's 12th District, formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, shows an initial lead for the Democratic candidate, but with very high undecideds.

The numbers: Mark Critz, a former Murtha chief of staff, 36%, businessman Tim Burns 31%.

The district is a swing seat, having voted for John McCain by a margin of less than one point in 2008 -- and it was the only district in the country to switch from John Kerry in 2004, who had a 51%-48% margin, to McCain in 2008. One factor that could help Democrats is that the special election will be held on May 18, the same day as the statewide primaries. There are more contested Democratic races than Republican ones that day, and this could potentially boost Democratic turnout for Critz.

PA-12

GOP To Pick Candidate For Murtha House Seat Tonight

Eric Kleefeld | March 11, 2010, 2:41PM

PA-12 Republican candidates Tim Burns and Bill Russell

Pennsylvania Republicans will be picking their candidate tonight to run in the May 18 special election for the House seat previously held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha.

The two leading candidates are businessman Tim Burns, and Retired Air Force Colonel Bill Russell, who was also the nominee against Murtha in 2008. The two of them will not be competing in a primary, but instead will fight for the nomination through an internal party process, explained to us by Pennsylvania GOP executive director Luke Bernstein.

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John Murtha

Murtha's Death Triggers Special Election In Swing District

Eric Kleefeld | February 9, 2010, 11:29AM

The late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA)

The passing of Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) has triggered a special election that could have national implications for both parties.

Murtha's district is a swing seat, in general terms. It always returned Murtha by comfortable margins, but underneath that were some close races. John Kerry carried it with 51% in 2004, but it gave John McCain a very narrow 49% plurality in 2008 -- the only district in the whole country to actually cross the line from Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008.

Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell has 10 days to select a date for the election, which could occur at the same time as the regular Pennsylvania primary, May 18, in order to save the substantial money that a separate election would require. Under Pennsylvania laws, there would not be primaries for the special election -- instead, the parties would select candidates through their own internal processes. Whoever wins the special election would then face the voters again in the regular 2010 general election.

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John Murtha

Murtha's Office Denies Retirement Speculation, After Requesting What-If Memo From DCCC

Eric Kleefeld | December 17, 2009, 11:23AM

Rep. John Murtha (D-PA).

Rep. John Murtha's (D-PA) office is shooting down a rumor that the long-time Congressman could retire in 2010 -- despite having asked the DCCC for a memo on how his war-chest could legally be spent if he were to do so.

The request to the DCCC was made in late October, The Hill reports. Murtha spokesman Matthew Mazonkey responded to the news: "Congressman Murtha is not retiring and looks forward to winning reelection to a 20th term in 2010."

Murtha's office and the DCCC both told The Hill that the memo was obtained in response to an inquiry by one of Murtha's constituents, who worried that retiring members of Congress might be able to put campaign money to personal use. The Hill points out that this explanation "seemed strained to some observers," since his office could have easily informed a constituent that this would be illegal.

If Murtha were to retire, it could present a headache to Democrats. His district narrowly voted for John McCain in 2008 -- the only Congressional district in the whole country to switch from John Kerry in 2004 to the Republican column in 2008.