
In many ways, 2010 will be the Year of the Tea Party. The angry conservative movement has bumped off a number of moderate and establishment Republicans in the primary season, packed huge rallies across the country and provided most of the best drama of the political year. But the success and prominence of the tea party movement has led to another trend: across the country, Democrats have been accused of helping get phony "Tea Party" candidates on the ballot in competitive races, in an attempt to split the vote between the Republican and fake "Tea Party" nominee so the Dem can cruise to victory.
It all made a lot of sense at the start. Back at the beginning of 2010, the tea party movement was showing real signs of splitting off into a separate political party. This was before the tea partiers set their sights on remaking the GOP with Senate nominees like Sharron Angle, Ken Buck and Christine O'Donnell, and, in turn, the GOP embraced the movement with both arms. A few clever Democratic activists, it appears, set about to take advantage of the schism between the GOP and tea party.
Evidence of the alleged plan has popped up in Florida, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania this year. Time will tell how successful it's been, but so far it's had very little effect.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Times Leader is out with a new Pennsylvania statewide poll and things appear to be looking up for the state's Democratic nominees. In the race for Senate, Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak trails Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey by four points, 40%-36%. In the state's gubernatorial race, Democratic nominee Dan Onorato finds himself down only one point, 38%-37%, to Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett.
These findings show each race as tight as they've been in recent months' polling. Since this is the first poll conducted for The Times Leader, there are no polling results for direct comparison. A September 13 Rasmussen poll found Toomey up 49%-41% in the Senate race, and an earlier September 11 Fox News poll gave the Republican nominee a 47%-41% advantage over Sestak. The September 13 Rasmussen poll also showed Corbett up double-digits on Onorato, 49%-39%, while the Fox poll produced an equivalent 10-point lead for the Republican, 50%-40%.
The TPM Poll Average for both races still show the Republican nominees comfortably ahead-- in the Senate race, Toomey leads 46.6%-39.8%, while Corbett finds himself on top of the gubernatorial race, 47.3%-37.6%.
The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.
For the latest on the closely-watched Senate race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Lawsuits challenging health care reform have popped up in several states and are drawn nearly entirely on partisan lines, in some cases fracturing top state government officials where the governor is a Democrat and attorney general is a Republican who joined the legal challenge. In Missouri, Lt. Gov Peter Kinder (R) so badly wanted to be part of the lawsuit that he bucked his Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon and the attorney general to say he'll be joining the other attorneys general on his own.
There are a handful of other splits across the country -- Michigan, Washington state, Pennsylvania and Colorado -- which create a tough political climate for anyone attempting to get something done at the state level. Louisiana is the one bipartisan example, with Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) and Attorney General Buddy Caldwell (D) agreeing to join the lawsuit.
The legal challenge has been the latest trend among Republicans, with GOPers trying to one-up each other on the question of whether health care should be repealed, deemed unconstitutional, or left alone. It's become a litmus test for conservatives.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)We can add a new item to the list of Republican litmus tests that has included taxes, abortion, guns and gays: How staunchly do you support repeal of health care reform? If you're a Republican seeking higher office, this is indeed an important question.
It has become clear that the stronger somebody opposes the health care bill, the better one's chances are for political advancement as a Republican. The GOP leadership has thus far adopted "repeal and replace" as their mantra, which will likely be the standard line throughout the election. (Just how much of it would be repealed, and what would replace it, is still not quite so clear.) In addition, challenging its very constitutionality is another way to burnish one's conservative credentials with the party's base even more.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Pennsylvania state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe says he's a different kind of Lt. Gov. candidate. The self-described "most conservative lawmaker in the legislature" says he won't be "a silent partner" to the top of the ticket in Pennsylvania, where Republicans hope to retake the governor's mansion for the first time since 2003.
Instead, Metacalfe -- best known across the state for his controversial statements about gays and climate change -- promises to be a political check on the Republican nominee he might share the ticket with. If the nominee veers away from the right toward positions that "hurt our freedom," Metcalfe says he'll call him out in public. He's already running against his own party, claiming he had to run a secret campaign to get on the ballot so the state GOP wouldn't try to stop him.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Republicans may have gotten some good news today, with Pennsylvania Rep. Jim Gerlach dropping out of the gubernatorial race -- and possibly saving the party from dealing with a highly vulnerable open seat.
Gerlach had been badly trailing state Attorney General Tom Corbett in all the polls for the Republican nomination. Gerlach's district is a blue district that voted 58%-41% for Barack Obama in 2008, and 51%-48% for John Kerry in 2004. Gerlach himself has had close races throughout his time in Congress -- his best result was winning 52.1% of the vote in 2008 -- but if Gerlach runs again it would intuitively seem to be better for Republicans than dealing with an open blue seat.
It is not immediately clear whether Gerlach will actually run for another term, which would shut down the campaigns of the four local Republicans who had already been running. But a GOP source expressed some optimism to us: "If Jim Gerlach gets in, he'll hold the seat."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)