Super Committee

GOP's False Claim Of Proposing Higher Taxes On The Rich Spreads (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | November 22, 2011, 2:34PM

This is how bad information spreads. Channeling Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson, Mort Zuckerman -- the billionaire real estate and media mogul -- claimed on MSNBC Tuesday that Republicans on the super committee had broken with their anti-tax orthodoxy and proposed to increase taxes, modestly, on upper income Americans.

Here's Zuckerman:

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Super Committee

CHART OF THE DAY: The Regressive Tax Plan Super Committee Dems Shot Down

Brian Beutler | November 10, 2011, 12:40PM

A new Democratic memo rips apart a GOP Super Committee proposal -- offered by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) -- that would have reduced, and made permanent, Bush-era tax rates. Many of the key details of the plan remain undisclosed, even to Democrats, but they've included a table laying out all of the lower rates the GOP has proposed, and deduced from what's known that the changes would significantly reduce the progressiveness of the tax code.

Here's how. The GOP claims the plan would raise $300 billion in revenue, and also make the newer, lower Bush tax rates permanent. To accomplish this, simple arithmetic implies he'd have to raise a ton of tax revenue elsewhere. But since he objects to raising taxes on capital income, that would require him to slash deeply into credits and preferences that benefit lower and middle income taxpayers.

Democrats drew a comparison to a similar plan -- one with smaller tax cuts that has been scored by the Joint Committee on Taxation, and concluded:

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Super Committee

Dems, GOP Play Super Committee Hot Potato As Talks Stall Over Taxes

Brian Beutler | November 10, 2011, 6:03AM

Members of the deficit Super Committee are still meeting, still talking, but for all intents and purposes, negotiations have stalled. The underlying difficulty remains the GOP's unwillingness to agree to raise significant new tax revenue, enough to match Democrats' willingness to cut spending on popular programs like Medicare and Social Security. But with days ticking down quickly until the panel's November 23 deadline, each party is claiming that the ball is in the other's court.

One of the most recent offers, the details of which were leaked to the press earlier this week, came from Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA). It's been characterized by Republicans as a plan that would raise $300 billion in new revenue, Republicans say, by limiting certain tax preferences. But it also would require reducing, and making permanent, Bush-era tax rates for high income earners -- a requirement Democrats oppose. Additionally, the overall revenue figure may be the product of a controversial "dynamic" model, which assumes that the tax changes will lead to economic growth.

Democrats have applauded Republicans for finally acknowledging that higher net tax revenues need to be part of the committee's overall mix. But they've also rejected the offer as not serious, and wildly dismissive of Dem demands that the panel reduce deficits nearly as much by rolling back spending on safety net programs as by requiring wealthier Americans to pay higher taxes.

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Super Committee

Super Committee Riven By Major Divide Over Basic Facts

Brian Beutler | September 14, 2011, 5:59AM

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)

Political debates over deficits and debt are always marked by obfuscation and technicality. The numbers are huge and frightening, the terms obscure and technical, and the simple, fundamental point of the argument gets buried underneath this avalanche of panic and esoterica.

But for a brief moment Tuesday, under questioning from Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), Congress' top economic analyst made it perfectly clear to everybody who was listening.

"I think really the fundamental question for you is not how we got here, but where you want the country to go, what role do you and your colleagues want the government to play in the economy and the society?" said Doug Elmendorf, who heads the Congressional Budget Office. He was addressing the six Democrats and six Republicans on the new joint deficit committee, and for three hours he did his best not to get buried under the same avalanche.

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Default

Who's Really Responsible For U.S. Debt Downgrade

Brian Beutler | August 17, 2011, 10:00AM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

This article was updated at 10:00am Eastern on August 17, 2011 to include additional names pointed out by TPM readers.

Now that Standard & Poors has confirmed that the chorus of default doubters in the GOP was part of what spooked them into downgrading the U.S. credit rating, Republicans will do all they can to pretend that they never questioned the risk of missing payment obligations, or allowing borrowing authority to lapse. But they sure did! Here's a long, partial timeline of influential Republicans either vouchsafing default, or downplaying the consequences of passing the August 2 deadline without raising the debt limit.

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Debt Ceiling

After Triggering Downgrade, Debt Default Skeptics Try To Run From Their Records -- But They Can't

Brian Beutler | August 12, 2011, 10:16AM

Standard & Poors has a specific justification for downgrading the U.S. bond rating, and it's deadly for Republicans. It wasn't just that Congress showed itself to be reckless and dysfunctional, or that the GOP shows no sign of ever ending their anti-tax jihad. It's that for a period of weeks, some lawmakers (read: Republicans) were quite literally shrugging off the risks of blowing past the August 2 deadline, running out of borrowing authority, and missing payment obligations.

"[P]eople in the political arena were even talking about a potential default," said Joydeep Mukherji, senior directior at S&P. "That a country even has such voices, albeit a minority, is something notable," he added. "This kind of rhetoric is not common amongst AAA sovereigns."

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Super Committee

GOP Leaders Pick Conservative Members To Serve On Deficit Super Committee

Brian Beutler | August 10, 2011, 12:19PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have announced their selections to serve on the new so-called Super Committee -- the panel called for in the debt limit bill that's been tasked with reducing deficits by at least $1.2 trillion.

McConnell's picked his Whip, Jon Kyl (R-AZ), as well as conservative freshman Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), and arch-conservative Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA).

Boehner tapped Reps. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), chair of the GOP conference, and the caucus' top message man; Dave Camp (R-MI) chair of the Ways and Means Committee, which controls tax revenue; and Fred Upton (R-MI), whose powerful Energy and Commerce Committee has broad jurisdiction over just about everything other than taxes, but particularly health care.

As head of the majority party in the House of Representatives, Boehner was asked to name the committee's GOP co-chair, and for that he chose Hensarling -- an extremely conservative member who in recent weeks falsely characterized the debt limit fight as a consequence of spending policies enacted by President Obama and past Democratic congresses. By quite a ways, most existing debt is the result of GOP policies, or bipartisan initiatives like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Hensarling served on President Obama's fiscal commission, headed by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, but ultimately opposed their recommendations, because they included higher revenues.

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John Boehner

CIVIL WAR: GOP Coalition Splinters Into Open Conflict Over Debt Ceiling

Benjy Sarlin & Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 27, 2011, 6:00AM

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Speaker Boehner

The Republican leadership's efforts to avert a debt ceiling crisis with a two-tiered set of cuts is turning into the most divisive wedge issue the party has confronted since President Obama took over in 2009.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) may have thought his face-saving plan, which he hoped to bring to the floor Wednesday, offered a path to victory. However, since treading upon it he's been beset from all sides. It's not just that the President is threatening to veto the bill, should it ever make it past the Senate; it's that Boehner's fellow conservatives are sniping at him with (not so) friendly fire. Now the vote he'd hoped to bring triumphantly to the floor Wednesday looks delayed until at least Thursday, and even then the outcome is uncertain.

That's because the GOP is teetering on the brink of a debt-based civil war. More traditional Republicans and big business types are desperate to avoid a recovery-crushing default. But their Tea Party colleagues are leading a rebellion of epic - perhaps even galactic - proportions. Cue the John Williams music and find out who stands where in this stand-off between the Establishment's storm-troopers and the Rebel Alliance.

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Debt ceiling

GOP Demand Obama Protect Social Security, Cut Something Or Other

Benjy Sarlin | July 26, 2011, 2:43PM

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Republican lawmakers from the House and Senate gathered on Tuesday to repeat demands that the Treasury Dept shield seniors, soldiers, and bondholders from any ill effects of a default crisis. They've created legislation to this effect as well, which they urged the White House to back. Once again, however, the top sponsors of the measure are silent on what should be cut back instead.

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) was asked repeatedly by reporters what payments Treasury Department should suspend to make up for the guarantees to Social Security and troop pay. He offered no specifics.

"There's room for other payments to be made," he said. "It is not our intent to specify every last dollar, but rather to identify these vitally important programs and avoid default on our debt."

The Treasury Department has said that Social Security payments may be suspended to deal with a default crisis if the debt ceiling is not raised by August 2. While Social Security, troop pay, and interest payments would not take up all the revenue projected to come into the Treasury on their own, the Bipartisan Policy Center (which Toomey cited in his press conference as well) has warned that the process will be so "chaotic" that "handling all payments for important and popular programs (e.g., Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, active duty pay) will quickly become impossible."

Medicare

Senate Republicans Vote Overwhelmingly To End Medicare

Brian Beutler | May 25, 2011, 5:52PM

Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

The GOP continued its bloody walk into the Medicare buzzsaw Wednesday, when 40 out of 47 Senate Republicans voted in support of the House GOP budget, and its plan to phase out and privatize the popular entitlement program.

The test vote failed by a vote of 57-40. But the roll call illustrates that Medicare privatization -- along with deep cuts to Medicaid and other social services -- remains the consensus position of the GOP despite the growing political backlash against them.

Voting with all of the Democrats against debating the plan were Sens. Scott Brown (R-MA), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) -- both 2012 incumbents -- along with Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Rand Paul (R-KY) voted against it because it wasn't radical enough.

Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Pat Roberts (R-KS), and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) did not vote.

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Debt Ceiling

How Republicans Are Convincing Themselves That A Debt Default Wouldn't Be So Bad -- And Why They're Wrong

Brian Beutler | May 20, 2011, 1:53PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Congressional Republicans are falling under the spell of an unorthodox group of financial experts who dispute the views of their peers and say that the U.S. could default briefly on debt payments without major, lasting consequences to the U.S. economy and international markets.

The most influential of these dissidents is Stanley Druckenmiller, a billionaire former-hedge fund manager who helped George Soros build his fortune. His recent comments to the Wall Street Journal have carried the day with senior Republicans like House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (WI), House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (VA), and Sen. Pat Toomey (PA), all of whom now say the U.S. could weather three or four days of missed interest payments, as long as the U.S. debt ceiling were quickly lifted, and a credible debt reduction plan signed into law.

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Debt Ceiling

Toomey, Top Republicans: Not Raising The Debt Ceiling? No Biggie!

Brian Beutler | May 18, 2011, 1:56PM

Top Republicans in Congress are advancing the idea that allowing the U.S. to default on its debts for a short time will be fairly harmless, and is a far better option than lifting the debt ceiling without simultaneous, dramatic spending cuts.

The new push comes just days after the country hit its statutory debt limit. In essence, the GOP is arming itself with a rationale to continue to oppose a debt ceiling hike, despite dire warning from economists, finance experts, and the Obama administration about the consequences of default.

At an event at the conservative American Enterprise Institute Wednesday morning, Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) laid out the case. "This problem is so urgent that there is -- an alternative school of thought has emerged recently," Toomey said. "The most high-profile advocate for this was Stanley Druckenmiller ... one of the world's most successful hedge-fund managers, extraordinarily wealthy from his knowledge of the markets, a big money manager now, and a big holder of Treasury securities -- and he has said that he would actually accept even a delay in interest payments on the Treasuries that he holds. And he would prefer that if it meant that the Congress would right this ship."

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CPAC

Bachmann, McConnell, King Kick Off Day One Of CPAC

Jillian Rayfield | February 10, 2011, 9:06AM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Here are the main speakers scheduled for the Conservative Political Action Conference, day one.

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Debt

Show Them The Money! Who Wins And Who Loses Under Toomey Debt Limit Plan

Brian Beutler | February 7, 2011, 2:26PM

PA-SEN Candidate Pat Toomey (R)

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) recently proposed a stop-gap measure to prioritize paying off interest on U.S. debt in the event that the country reaches its debt ceiling. Democrats have attacked this plan as a "pay China first" proposal, which will disadvantage American retirees and veterans who are also owed money by the Treasury.

But who would really get the money? Well, yes, China. But so too would many other countries, institutions, and individuals in the United States. The Christian Science Monitor has a handy breakdown here.

About 53 percent of U.S. debt held by the public was held domestically. Says CSM, "Within this slice, the largest category is individuals - Treasury notes are good solid additions to any portfolio. US individuals hold 12 percent of the country's debt. Next under the domestic category comes the Federal Reserve, which holds 9 percent of US debt, then pension and retirement funds, mutual funds, and state and local governments."

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Debt Ceiling

Toomey Pushes 'Pay China First' Plan

Brian Beutler | February 2, 2011, 11:17AM

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is trying to attach a controversial debt-limit provision to an unrelated aviation bill, now on the Senate floor.

As described here, the measure would manage the fallout of a default on the national debt by prioritizing Treasury payments to investors -- foreign countries, financial institutions -- over other obligations like Social Security beneficiaries and veterans benefits, among others.

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Debt Ceiling

'Pay China First' -- Republicans' Wild Plan To Avoid U.S. Debt Default

Brian Beutler | January 31, 2011, 9:30AM

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

New Republican legislation in the House and Senate would force the U.S. government to reroute huge amounts of money to China and other creditors in the event that Congress fails to raise its debt ceiling.

"I intend to introduce legislation that would require the Treasury to make interest payments on our debt its first priority in the event that the debt ceiling is not raised," Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) wrote in a Friday Wall Street Journal op-ed.

If passed, Toomey's plan would require the government to cut large checks to foreign countries, and major financial institutions, before paying off its obligations to Social Security beneficiaries and other citizens owed money by the Treasury -- that is, if the U.S. hits its debt ceiling. Republican leaders insist they will raise the country's debt limit before this happens. But first, they're going to try to force Democrats to accept large spending cuts, using their control over the debt limit as leverage. That means gridlock, and the threat that they'll come up short.

That's where Toomey's idea supposedly comes in. And yet, according to the Treasury Department, his plan wouldn't actually avoid a default, or its catastrophic consequences.

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Earmarks

Earmark Fight In Senate Pits Tea Partiers Against Establishment GOP

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 12, 2010, 8:50AM

Jim DeMint

Total opposition to earmarking is a key tea party tenet, and the battle to get Republicans to voluntarily ban it in their ranks is already raging. Establishment leaders like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell -- who favor earmarking for its time-honored electoral implications -- are clashing with pro-ban Senators led by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), the body's tea party hero.

Lining up behind DeMint in the push to end earmarks are Sens. Jim Coburn (R-OK), John Cornyn (R-TX), John Ensign (R-NV) and Mike Enzi (R-WY) -- along with Senators-elect Pat Toomey (R-PA), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rand Paul (R-KY), Mike Lee (R-UT), Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) and Ron Johnson (R-WI).

McConnell has reportedly been fighting behind the scenes to squash the proposed ban, and Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) -- one of the Senate's most conservative members -- is publicly blasting his anti-earmark colleagues for hypocrisy.

Who wins the scrum could have broad implications in 2012.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 6:17PM

Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R-KY), Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), former Reagan administration Budget Director David Stockman.

• CBS, Face The Nation: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Sen.-elect Pat Toomey (R-PA).

• Fox News Sunday: House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA), Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

• NBC, Meet The Press: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ).

Government Shutdown

PA Sen.-Elect Pat Toomey Squirms When Grilled On Coming Debt Vote (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | November 4, 2010, 10:45AM

Soon after the next Congress is sworn in, members will face their first major test: can they agree to increase the nation's debt ceiling, or will they refuse to do it and force either a government shut-down or a government default on our existing debt.

Republicans are already threatening to attach major strings to that legislation -- but more on that later. Suffice it to say: the consequences of a default or a shut-down would be dramatic.

Today, though, one of Tuesday night's big Republican winners wouldn't commit to forcing a showdown with President Obama on the debt ceiling -- at least not with the fierceness conservatives would like to see.

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PA-SEN

Comeback Kid: GOPer Pat Toomey Finally Gets To The Senate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 12:10AM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Pennsylvania voters chose Republican Pat Toomey to take over the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Arlen Specter (D) tonight.

This is a storyline that was supposed to play out for Toomey six years ago, when the conservative former Congressman challenged the moderate Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and lost.

A lot has changed in those six years, most of it tipping the balance of things in Toomey's direction. His fringy conservative fiscal politics -- Toomey is a former head of the Club For Growth -- have become GOP mantra with the rise of the tea party, and the shift rightward for his party forced Specter to change parties and become a Democrat. Specter's story ended, of course, with a successful primary challenge from the left mounted by Rep. Joe Sestak, the man Toomey defeated tonight.

Toomey now heads into a Senate caucus seemingly read to adopt his hardcore conservative fiscal views and equally right-leaning social policy agenda. Like Toomey, many of the incoming class of freshman Republican Senators have flirted with the idea of privatizing Social Security, and suggested the best way to reform the nation's health care problems is to undo all the reforming the last Congress just got done with.

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2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Keeps 2-Point Lead For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 11:35AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race has Republican Pat Toomey maintaing a narrow lead against Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 45%, Sestak 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

Yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- had an identical Toomey lead of 45%-43%, after several previous days that had Toomey with stronger leads.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 47.7%-43.4%.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Leads Sestak In PA-SEN -- But By How Much?

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2010, 12:36PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

Two new polls of the Pennsylvania Senate race both put Republican Pat Toomey ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak, but by very different margins, and with different levels of undecided voters.

The new Marist poll: Toomey 52%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the previous Marist poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 51%-42%.

In today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll: Toomey 45%, Sestak 43%. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- Toomey's lead was a stronger 47%-42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 48.0%-43.6%.

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PA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Toomey Leads By 4 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 1:00PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race has Republican Pat Toomey maintaining a narrow lead against Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 50%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Toomey led by 48%-44%.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By 5 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 10:04AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

Today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a five-point lead, 47%-42%, over Democrat Joe Sestak.

In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- Toomey had a slightly wider lead of 48%-40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.2%-43.1%.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By 8 Points For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 9:59AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

Today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a solid lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 40%. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out the four-day samples -- Toomey had a slightly narrower lead of 46%-41%

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.4%-43.1%.

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PA-SEN

CNN Poll: Toomey Leads By 4 Points In PA-SEN, Aided By Enthusiasm Gap

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 5:18PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new CNN poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a narrow lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers, among likely voters: Toomey 49%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 49%-44%.

This poll also provides a further data point about how the enthusiasm gap is hurting Democrats. Among registered voters, a wider pool than the likely voters, Sestak actually leads by 47%-43%, up from a 45%-45% tie in the last poll.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.1%-43.7%.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Still Ahead In PA-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 9:45AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

Two new polls out this morning for the Pennsylvania Senate race show Republican Pat Toomey with a lead over Democrat Joe Sestak, but with a significant number of undecideds remaining.

The new Franklin & Marshall poll gives Toomey 43% and Sestak 36%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.4% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 46%-34%.

In today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, Toomey leads by 46%-41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out the four-day samples -- Toomey led by a slightly wider 48%-40%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 45.4%-43.2%.

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PA-SEN

Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Toomey And Sestak Tied In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 2:04PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Reuters/Ipsos poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows a tie between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, the latter of whom has shown strong momentum at closing the gap in some recent polls.

The poll has Toomey and Sestak at 46%-46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.9% margin of error. In the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll from all the way back in late August, Toomey led by 47%-37%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a narrowing lead of just 45.9%-45.1%.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey's Lead Grows To 8 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 9:48AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race suggests Republican Pat Toomey is solidifying his lead again, after Democrat Joe Sestak was previously closing the gap.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- Toomey led by 47%-42%. By contrast, the tracking poll released last Friday had the two tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average still shows a very close race: Toomey 45.8%, Sestak 44.0%.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By Five Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 9:29AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows Republican Pat Toomey regaining a lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 47%, Sestak 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- Toomey led by 46%-43%. In the poll released last Friday, the two were tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a narrow lead of 46.2%-44.3%, with a recent strong surge for Sestak.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 2:13PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, Retired Army Gen. Hugh Shelton

• CBS, Face The Nation: Karl Rove, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I).

• Fox News Sunday: Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R-PA), Senate candidate Joe Manchin (D-WV).

• NBC, Meet The Press: RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

PA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Toomey's Lead Shrinks To Four Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 1:40PM

Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey

The new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race provides yet another data point that Democrat Joe Sestak is closing the gap against Republican Pat Toomey, with Toomey's lead shrinking from ten points down to just four.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous poll from less than two weeks ago, Toomey led by a much stronger 49%-39%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.1%-44.4%, with Sestak's blue line rapidly approaching Toomey's red one.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey and Sestak Tied In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 9:48AM

Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey

Today's Muhlenberg tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows a tie between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, at 43%-43%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- the two were also tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.2%-44.2%. As we noted this morning, Sestak trailed for months, but is quickly catching up in the home stretch.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Sestak Surging From Behind (Again) -- Will It Be Enough?

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 8:30AM

PA-SEN Candidate Joe Sestak (D)

Something very odd is happening in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Just two weeks ago or so, Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey seemed the odds-on favorite to pick up the open seat of Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter, who had lost his Dem primary to Rep. Joe Sestak in a revolt against Specter's party-switch. This would have quickly returned the seat to GOP hands, after Specter's nearly 30 years as a Republican Senator were interrupted by his party switch. But suddenly, there's a real race again.

Right after the Democratic primary, Sestak enjoyed an initial bump, and took the lead against Toomey. But then various factors set in -- notably the general Republican gains in the polls around the country, and Sestak having to awkwardly deal with questions about an attempted job offer from the White House to get him out of his Dem primary challenge against Specter.

Soon Sestak and Toomey began to tie, and then tie some more. Soon enough, Toomey took a definite lead, and held it throughout much of the summer and early fall.

But now that's all beginning to change.

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PA-SEN

Toomey: 'I Couldn't Believe' Sestak Ran The Dog-Poop Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 1:56PM

From a Joe Sestak ad, "Belle"

Pat Toomey is now responding to a recent ad from Joe Sestak, in which the Democratic nominee in the Pennsylvania Seante race compared the Republican's policies and the legacy of the Bush years to the fecal matter that his dog leaves behind, and which he has had to clean up.

During a friendly interview with the local Fox station in Philadelphia, Toomey was asked about the ad. "I gotta tell you, I think it's ridiculous. First of all, I couldn't believe that he would run an ad like that," Toomey said.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Sestak And Toomey In A Dead Heat For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 9:58AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

New polls out this morning confirm that the Pennsylvania Senate race has gotten very tight, and very quickly, with Democrat Joe Sestak catching up rapidly after Republican Pat Toomey had previously led by strong margins.

Toomey had led in polls for months, but Sestak is now making a serious race of it in the home stretch. In some ways, this is a lot like Sestak's win in the Democratic primary over incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter -- the political world had largely written him off, but then undecided voters broke heavily his way in the end. Will it be enough this time, too?

The new daily tracking poll from Muhlenberg, conducted over a four-day period: Sestak 43%, Toomey 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the previous, overlapping survey from yesterday, Sestak had taken a lead of 44%-41%.

The numbers from Quinnipiac: Toomey 48%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous survey from a month ago, Toomey was ahead by 50%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average has Toomey holding on to a narrow advantage of 46.4%-43.9%, largely the on the strength of previous surveys that gave him wider leads.

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PA-SEN

Sestak And Toomey Clash In PA-SEN Debate: No, You're More Extreme

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2010, 8:51PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The two men vying to replace Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) squared off in a televised debate tonight that centered around which of them was the more extreme. Pat Toomey, the Republican nominee, tried to paint Democrat Joe Sestak as representing the extreme liberal edge of the Democratic Party, negatively associating him with teachers unions and what he called Democrats who are "not friends" of Israel.

Sestak, a retired admiral and current member of Congress, fought back by positioning Toomey with personalities like Sarah Palin and Delaware Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell. He also took every possible opportunity, it seemed, to place President Bush's name as close to Toomey's as possible.

Toomey is the former president of the ultra-conservative Club For Growth and a former Republican member of Congress. He held firm on his belief in school vouchers, decreased regulation and at least the partial privatization of Social Security.

Toomey also got Palin's endorsement today, perhaps reaffirmig his conservative bona fides with his base, but also leaving him open to Sestak's attacks that he's too far to the right for Pennsylvania's swinging electorate. (Toomey declined to say whether he thinks Palin is qualified to be president.)

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PA-SEN

Second Poll Shows Sestak Leading In PA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2010, 10:54AM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

A second public poll is confirming yesterday's big PPP (D) numbers showing that Democrat Joe Sestak has closed the gap with Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

A new Muhlenberg College poll -- the first set of numbers in the school's two week tracking poll of the final sprint to the finish in Pennsylvania -- shows Sestak leading 44-41.

The poll creates an interesting dynamic for tonight's live debate between Sestak and Toomey. Where national observers had all but written off the race for Sestak, now virtually everyone is chattering about the potential for a Democratic surprise in the Keystone State.

The TPM Poll Average shows Toomey with a 46.0-43.3 lead in the race. Trendlines show Sestak is closing that gap, fast.

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