Arlen Specter

Poll: Sestak Gains On Specter, Both Men Still Lead Toomey

Brian Beutler | August 14, 2009, 11:12AM

A new Research 2000 poll reaffirms what a separate Rasumussen poll found earlier this week: that in the last month Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) has made serious gains on his Pennsylvania Senate primary opponent, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA).

Specter now leads Sestak 48-33 among likely voters. But that 15 point margin is down by 30 from May when Specter lead 56-11. And 40 percent of voters still don't know who Specter is.

Meanwhile, according to R2K, both men still lead Pat Toomey--Specter 45-40, and Sestak 42 41. Both men have lost ground in recent weeks, though. Specter was throttling Toomey 55-31, and Sestak enjoyed a more comfortable 37-32 margin three months ago.

Though Toomey's clearly gaining ground, Rasmussen recently found that Toomey had actually surpassed both of his potential rivals.

Arlen Specter

Rasmussen: Toomey Now Leads Specter, Sestak In Statewide Poll

Brian Beutler | August 13, 2009, 9:03AM

There might be one beneficiary of the flame war between Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA): Republican Pat Toomey.

Whomever wins the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania next year will battle Toomey in the general election, and now, for the first time, Toomey shows a lead over both men. A Rasmussen telephone survey of likely voters, released today, shows 48 percent would vote Toomey, 36 Specter if the election were held today. Four percent opt for a third option, and 12 are not sure.

Specter's taken a beating in recent months for switching parties at a crucial political moment, and though he enjoys extremely wide name recognition, the attacks seem to be taking their toll. But the situation's no better for Sestak, who until recently was also beating Toomey. Toomey now has a 43-35 lead over Sestak, down from June, when Sestak enjoyed a six point lead over Toomey.

Arlen Specter

Toomey: Town Halls Show "Political Extremism" -- Of The Democrats' Health Plan

Eric Kleefeld | August 11, 2009, 6:41PM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who is running for Senate in 2010, released this statement on the rough town hall experience today for his long-time nemesis, Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter:

Allentown, PA - The negative reaction Senator Arlen Specter received today at a town hall meeting on health care in Lebanon, PA is a demonstration of the growing frustration and concern shared by taxpayers across Pennsylvania.

"The health care plan Senator Specter supports reflects the kind of political extremism that results from complete Democratic control of Washington," said U.S. Senate candidate Pat Toomey. "Arlen Specter is giving the Democrats in Congress a blank check that will take us down the wrong path."

"People across Pennsylvania have real concerns about the cost and intrusiveness of the government-run health care plan Arlen Specter supports. They deserve reforms that will lower the cost of health care and give them more choices, not government control, higher taxes, and a larger deficit. If elected to the U.S. Senate, I will work tirelessly to find real solutions to our health care problems through increased choice, personal ownership, and competition."

Arlen Specter

Poll: Specter In Dead Heat With Toomey For 2010 General Election

Eric Kleefeld | July 22, 2009, 9:12AM

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) in a dead heat with Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey, whose challenge against Specter in the Republican primary triggered Specter's party switch a few months ago.

The numbers: Specter 45%, Toomey 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error. Back in May, shortly after he'd become a Democrat, Specter had a much better lead of 46%-37%. When Toomey is pitted against Specter's Dem primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, Toomey has a lead of 39%-35%, with high undecideds because both candidates lack heavy name recognition.

In the Democratic primary, Specter currently leads Sestak by 55%-23%.

Only 40% of voters say Specter deserves another term, to 49% who say he does not. From the pollster's analysis: "Voters see Sen. Specter much less favorably than they once did and are net negative about giving him a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. Independent voters have shifted narrowly to Toomey 46 - 42 percent and say 53 - 35 percent that Specter does not deserve reelection."

Arlen Specter

As PA-Dem Primary Fight Heats Up, Republican Toomey Weighs In Against Specter

Brian Beutler | July 20, 2009, 12:15PM

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) are officially trading blows in the opening rounds of what promises to be a bruising primary fight over Specter's Senate seat. And now conservative Pat Toomey, the winner's likely general-election opponent, is weighing in...against Specter.

This comes via pa2010, which concludes that Toomey "still considers Senator Arlen Specter to be his eventual general election opponent."

That's a perfectly plausible interpretation. But, as always, politics can be a hall of mirrors, and this is just as likely a sign that Toomey wants Specter to lose the primary, because he thinks he'd have an easier time defeating Sestak in the general.

Whatever the logic here, though, it should be perfectly clear, if it wasn't already, that Specter will be contending with his abrupt party switch and mad dash from right to left for the duration of his candidacy.

Arlen Specter

Club For Growth Seeks To Help Specter Donors Ask For Their Money Back

Eric Kleefeld | June 25, 2009, 5:16PM

The Club For Growth is looking to employ a fun new tactic against their long-time nemesis, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-turned-D-PA), and has sent a letter to the FEC asking permission for this novel maneuver: To send a mass mailing to previous Specter donors, reminding them of the incumbent's offer to return donations to anyone who asks, and including a form to help them do just that!

The Club, of course, previously bankrolled then-Rep. Pat Toomey's conservative primary challenge against Specter in 2004, which Specter just barely won by 51%-49%. Toomey became the Club's president some time afterward, then left to challenge Specter again in 2010 with the group's full backing. This then led to Specter's party switch, and he singled them out for condemnation during his press conference announcing his move.

The Club's letter to the FEC includes their arguments for why they believe this action by them is permitted under the law, along with various disclaimers -- that Specter is not legally required to return donations and their own letter would remind recipients of this, that they would not broker any mailing lists from this, that they won't solicit recipients for any donations to the Club or another candidate, etc.

Bottom line: Assuming this is legal, the Club has found yet another way to annoy Specter.

PA-SEN

Toomey Picks Up Another Endorsement In 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | June 25, 2009, 2:47PM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose conservative primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter triggered the incumbent's shocking party switch, is building up further momentum towards the GOP nomination, with this campaign announcing the endorsement of Congressman Joe Pitts.

"Pat Toomey is the right candidate. No one else comes close," Pitts says in the press release, later adding: "A lot of politicians have lost credibility in recent years. Pat Toomey isn't one of them. Pat has good ideas that he actually believes in, and he will work hard to make people's lives better."

The Republican Party establishment briefly went looking for other possible candidates, but prospective recruits like former Gov. Tom Ridge or Rep. Jim Gerlach all bowed out. As it now stands, Specter is facing a Democratic primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak -- but we can be pretty sure that the winner of the Dem primary will have Pat Toomey as his general election opponent.

Arlen Specter

Toomey: Specter Has "Raised A Real Question About Whether He Can Be Trusted"

Eric Kleefeld | June 24, 2009, 11:20AM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose conservative primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter caused Specter to switch to the Democrats, is showing off what could be his main talking point for the 2010 general election: You just can't trust this guy.

"If Senator Specter does manage to win the Democratic primary, he has raised a real question about whether he can be trusted," Toomey told the Cumberland County Sentinel. "He took one look at a poll and he abandoned the party."

Toomey previously ran against Specter in the 2004 primary, and only lost by 51%-49%. After Toomey declared that he would be challenging Specter again, and when polls showed he could win the primary in a landslide, Specter then joined the Democrats -- and is now facing a Dem primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak.

Arlen Specter

Poll: Specter And Sestak Both Lead Toomey In 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Match-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | June 18, 2009, 12:28PM

A new Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania finds that both the newly-Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter and his primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, lead Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey for the 2010 Senate general election.

The numbers: Specter is ahead of Toomey 50%-39%, while Sestak leads Toomey 41%-35%, with the higher undecided numbers presumably coming from Sestak having lower name recognition than Specter with his nearly 30 years in the Senate. The margin of error is ±4.5%.

Specter has a favorable rating of 53%, to 43% unfavorable. Sestak's favorable ratings are 42%-33%, and Toomey's are at 50%-35%.

Arlen Specter

Toomey Raises $1 Million In 60 Days, Signs Up Former Specter Backers

Eric Kleefeld | June 15, 2009, 10:01AM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose conservative primary challenge spurred Sen. Arlen Specter into switching to the Democrats, has announced that he's raised $1 million in the past 60 days since he declared his candidacy -- a sign that he's building up the momentum to potentially nail down the GOP nomination.

In a fun side-note, the Toomey campaign's press release also announces that he's signed on long-time Pennsylvania Republican fundraisers Amy Petraglia and Carey Dunn: "Petraglia and Dunn have helped raised money for a number of statewide Pennsylvania candidates, including Rick Santorum, Lynn Swann, and Arlen Specter." (Emphasis added.)

Toomey has also signed up Specter's former finance director, Louisa Boyd, to be his own top fundraiser.

Arlen Specter

Republican Toomey Welcomes "Principled Liberal" Sestak Into Democratic Primary Against Specter

Eric Kleefeld | May 27, 2009, 6:21PM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose conservative primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter scared him into switching to the Democrats, has put out this a release welcoming Rep. Joe Sestak into the race as a Democratic primary challenger against Specter. Toomey contrasts the "principled liberal" Sestak against the "distortions and mudslinging" of Specter:

Toomey Welcomes Sestak Run

Looks Forward to Honest Campaign on the Issues

ALLENTOWN, PA - With news emerging that Rep. Joe Sestak is telling supporters he is going to run for the U.S. Senate, Pat Toomey welcomed Rep. Sestak to the race.

"While Joe Sestak and I disagree on a host of issues," Mr. Toomey said, "I commend him for being a principled liberal who stands up for his beliefs and values. I have always believed that Pennsylvania voters--not party bosses in Washington--should have the final say over whom their nominees will be."

"There would be no lack of substantive policy differences in a general election race between Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak, but Pennsylvanians would get the kind of refreshing campaign they deserve--honest and straightforward, without the distortions and mudslinging that characterize Arlen Specter's tired old approach to politics," added Toomey Communications Director Nachama Soloveichik. "If you want to see what kind of campaign Senator Specter will run, just look at the first ad he ran this year--an ad he was forced to remove from the airwaves because it contained blatantly false attacks on Pat Toomey. Pennsylvania Democrats are just as likely to reject Arlen Specter's politics of expediency as Pennsylvania Republicans did."

Guantanamo Bay

TPMDC Sunday Roundup

Eric Kleefeld | May 24, 2009, 12:53PM

Mullen: Gitmo Needs To Be Closed
Appearing on ABC's This Week, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen reaffirmed his belief that the prison at Guantanamo Bay should be closed. "The concern I've had about Guantanamo in these wars is it has been a symbol, and one which has been a recruiting symbol for those extremists and jihadists who would fight us. So and I think that centers -- you know, that's the heart of the concern for Guantanamo's continued existence, in which I spoke to a few years ago, the need to close it."

Obama's Day: Camp David
President Obama has been spending the weekend at Camp David, and is scheduled to arrive back at the White House tonight at 10 p.m. ET. He does not have any public events scheduled. Vice President Biden is in Wilmington, Delaware, and also does not have any scheduled public events.

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Pat Toomey

Toomey Picks Up Senate Endorsement From Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent

Eric Kleefeld | May 14, 2009, 10:17AM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey's (R-PA) campaign has just announced the endorsement of a prominent GOP Congressman from Pennsylvania, Rep. Charlie Dent, a sign that Toomey's effort might just be picking up more steam now that former Gov. Tom Ridge declared that he wouldn't be running for the GOP nod.

Dent represents Toomey's old House seat, but is generally viewed as a relatively more moderate, establishment personality. For example, he voted against federal intervention in the Schiavo case, and he endorsed the socially-liberal Rudy Giuliani for president in 2007.

The first big step for Toomey was declaring his candidacy at all, which then had the very-much unforeseen consequence of triggering Sen. Arlen Specter's party switch. The GOP establishment then began looking for another candidate, such as Ridge, but Toomey appears to be gaining momentum now.

Arlen Specter

Toomey: GOP Is A Big Tent For Freedom -- And Arlen Specter Didn't Fit

Eric Kleefeld | May 13, 2009, 9:44AM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose conservative primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter triggered Specter's switch from the GOP to the Democratic Party, has a new op-ed piece in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, arguing that the GOP is in fact a big tent for people who believe in freedom. But, he says, it's Arlen Specter who doesn't fit in with this overarching theme of freedom:

Arlen Specter never believed in limiting the power of government and defending the freedom of the individual. As long as he is wielding the levers of power, he wants that power to grow. His active cooperation with the current regime's massive expansion of government power was the straw that broke the camel's back for Pennsylvania Republicans. Or perhaps the last tearing of the fabric of freedom of the Republican tent.

That's the reason Mr. Specter fit so uncomfortably in the Republican tent. But for all of those out there who share the desire for more personal freedom and a less intrusive and growing government in Washington, the Republican Party's tent has the welcome mat out for you.

Arlen Specter

Ridge Won't Say Toomey Can Win -- Or If He'll Vote For Him

Eric Kleefeld | May 7, 2009, 5:44PM

Tom Ridge appeared on Hardball to discuss why he chose not to run for the Pennsylvania Senate seat currently held by party-switcher Arlen Specter, and at the end of the conversation there was a very strange exchange: Ridge, a former Republican governor and Bush cabinet member, not only wouldn't say that conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey can win -- but he wouldn't say he'd vote for him.

When Chris Matthews asked whether Toomey can win, Ridge paused and eventually had to say he didn't know. When asked who he would vote for, between Toomey the Republican or Specter the ex-Republican, Ridge replied: "Well, it's a wonderful country, this America -- it's called secret ballot."

Transcript after the jump.

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Arlen Specter

Poll: Specter In (Mostly) Good Shape, Toomey Unelectable

Eric Kleefeld | May 7, 2009, 3:13PM

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) in good overall shape to win re-election in 2010 -- though there just might be an opening for a Democratic primary challenger.

In a Democratic primary against the lesser-known Rep. Joe Sestak, Specter has 56% to Sestak's 11%, and Specter also leads current challenger Joe Torsella by 60%-5%. However, a separate question shows that only 37% of Dem primary voters say they would definitely vote for Specter, while 23% would consider someone else, 16% are definitely for someone else, and 24% are undecideds. This would indicate that some of Specter's support is soft, and a challenger could have a plausible (though definitely uphill) chance.

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Arlen Specter

Toomey: "Tom Ridge Is A True Patriot And A Leader"

Eric Kleefeld | May 7, 2009, 2:44PM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose conservative primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter caused the incumbent to switch parties, released this statement on the news that former Gov. Tom Ridge won't run for the GOP nomination:

"Tom Ridge is a true patriot and a leader. In his eloquent statement today, he said: 'My belief is that those in my home state can best be served by the principles of limited government, less taxes, competent governance and shared responsibility.' I agree with Governor Ridge's statement 100%. That is exactly the message I will carry to the people of Pennsylvania in my campaign for the U.S. Senate. It is a message that will not only unite the Republican Party, but more importantly, it is one that a majority of our fellow citizens can rally around, regardless of their party affiliation."

The Toomey campaign is off to a very fast start. In only three weeks since Pat Toomey declared his candidacy, the campaign has raised over $500,000 from over 4,000 contributors, signed up thousands more grassroots supporters, and brought on board many leading Republican elected officials and state party leaders.

Despite not being widely known throughout the entire state, two polls out this week show Toomey within a single digit margin of 30-year incumbent Senator Arlen Specter in the general election. This is in keeping with former Congressman Toomey's record of running and winning three general elections in the Democratic-leaning 15th Congressional District. By all accounts, Pat Toomey is the candidate who can unite Republicans and defeat the Democratic nominee in the general election.

Arlen Specter

BREAKING: Ridge Will Not Run For Senate In 2010

Brian Beutler | May 7, 2009, 12:47PM

Tom Ridge will not be challenging Pat Toomey for the Republican Senate nomination in Pennsylvania in 2010. In a statement released today, the former governor and Homeland Security chief said, "[a]fter careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate."

I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.

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Arlen Specter

SEIU Talks EFCA With Specter--Says It's 'Critical' Issue

Brian Beutler | May 5, 2009, 4:02PM

As we noted earlier, Sen. Arlen Specter met with senior SEIU officials this afternoon, just one day after his most likely competitor for the Democratic Senate nomination in Pennsylvania--Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)--met with the group's president Andy Stern.

One of those officials was Eileen Connelly, Executive Director of SEIU's Pennsylvania State Council, who, reached by phone, said the meeting "was all about EFCA". "We didn't really talk about health care," she said.

Specter's support for both issues, but particularly the Employee Free Choice Act, has been flagging. Before he became a Democrat, he disavowed his prior support for EFCA, and then reiterated that position after switching parties last week.

"I think that part of our concern is--the Employee Free Choice Act is a critical issue for us," Connelly said. "It's why we've been talking to Specter, whether he's a Republican or a Democrat."

I asked her whether the Pennsylvania SEIU would consider getting involved in a Democratic primary if one of the candidates took stronger position on that issue. She said it was a bit too early to make big calls like that but that "there's nothing automatic for anybody."

"I don't want to say that it's all or nothing," Connelly added, "but it's very critical."

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Arlen Specter

Poll: Ridge Leads Toomey In 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Primary -- By A Landslide

Eric Kleefeld | May 5, 2009, 3:35PM

A new poll of Pennsylvania from Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies shows that former Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA), who is reportedly considering a bid for the Senate seat now held by Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter, would currently lead conservative candidate Pat Toomey in a 60%-23% landslide for the Republican primary.

Toomey's big lead over Specter in the primary polls spurred the incumbent to switch parties, which in turn created the question of whether the Republicans were guaranteed Toomey as the nominee, or whether another Republican could take him. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), who is also vice chair of the NRSC, has openly said Toomey cannot win, so the establishment could understandably be eager for someone else. And if Ridge gets in, they just might have it.

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Arlen Specter

Specter Meets With Labor Leaders

Brian Beutler | May 5, 2009, 2:20PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) isn't the only potential Pennsylvania Senate candidate meeting with senior labor officials. Sam Stein reports that earlier today Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)--the former Republican who's been all-but promised an easy road to the nomination by establishment Democrats--met with SEIU Officials Anna Burger--Chair of Change to Win and Secretary-Treasurer of SEIU--and Eileen Connelly, the Executive Director of the SEIU Pennsylvania State Council.

These were Specter's natural allies when he was a pro-labor Republican, but between the threat of a primary challenge by conservative Pat Toomey, and his sudden defection into the Democratic party, Specter has doubled down on more conservative positions, saying that he no longer supports the Employee Free Choice Act and opposes a publicly funded insurance option as a component of comprehensive health reform.

Those statements and others have drawn the ire of Sestak and labor officials, who say Specter better get in line, or his road to the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010 won't be as smooth as he first expected. We'll get you more specifics about these talks as they come in.

Arlen Specter

Toomey Raised Over $500,000 Since Entering Race Three Weeks Ago

Eric Kleefeld | May 5, 2009, 11:34AM

It turns out that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose Republican primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter had built up such a lead in the polls that Specter switched to the Democrats, has had a pretty good time fundraising.

The Toomey camp has announced that it raised over $500,000 in the time since Toomey got into the race on April 15. Dave Weigel also reports that the campaign says donations surged on the day of Specter's switch a week ago.

The takeaway here is that Toomey has already gained significant support from grassroots conservative voters and activists in Pennsylvania. So if the national party wants to get another candidate who is viewed as more electable, such as former Gov. Tom Ridge or Rep. Jim Gerlach, that new player could face their own set of difficulties in the primary.

Arlen Specter

Poll: Democrat Arlen Specter Beats Toomey In Landslide, Only Narrowly Edges Ridge

Eric Kleefeld | May 4, 2009, 9:22AM

The new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania finds that Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) is in fairly decent shape going into his 2010 election campaign post-party switch, but there could be some vulnerabilities for Republicans to exploit if they play their cards right.

Against Pat Toomey, the conservative former Congressman whose primary challenge spurred Specter's switch, Specter leads in the general election by a whopping 53% to 33%. Specter's calculation appears to be correct, that he would have lost a Republican primary to Toomey but would also win big in a general election.

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Arlen Specter

Republicans Running Anti- And Pro-Specter Robocalls In PA

Brian Beutler | May 1, 2009, 10:24AM

Here's a weird gambit from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

As my colleague Eric Kleefeld reported earlier this week, the NRSC is running an anti-Arlen Specter robocall in Pennsylvania meant to create a chasm between the new Democrat and the voters who will select the party's nominee in the 2010 Senate race. You can listen to that call here.

But that's not the full extent of their shenanigans. They're also running a vaguely pro-Specter (but anti-Sestak) robocall at the exact same time. Take a look.

So what's the play here? That, should Sestak run, the first robocall will result (or help result) in a Sestak nomination, and that the second robocall will drive independent voters away from Sestak over to Toomey? That's the only thing I can think of, but it seems like a stretch. Then again, this is the NRSC....

Transcript follows:

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