Student loan reform

What The Fight Over Student Loans Is Really About

Brian Beutler | April 26, 2012, 6:26AM

In a reprise of the winter fight over the payroll tax cut, Republicans are now reluctantly agreeing to support something that just weeks ago they strongly opposed: preventing student loan interest rates from doubling later this year.

It's an issue Republicans fear will fire up the youth vote -- a key Democratic constituency -- and in an effort to keep that bloc from flocking back to President Obama in November they're attempting to bigfoot Democrats on their own issue.

But the Republicans' strategy threatens to tear at existing divisions within the party, and exposes them once again to political repercussions over their unwillingness to finance any popular policies by raising taxes on wealthy people.

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Debt

Top Congress Scholar Says Country Could Easily Fall Off Fiscal Cliff In January

Brian Beutler | April 25, 2012, 5:57AM

Protestors demand "Cut Spending Now" near the Capitol building in Washington DC

A renowned congressional analyst thinks there's a good chance that the country could fall off a fiscal cliff on Jan. 1, no matter who wins this November.

At an American Enterprise Institute event on the future of Medicare Tuesday, AEI scholar Norm Ornstein outlined a scenario in which Congress falls on its face this winter, and fails to address the expiring Bush tax cuts and payroll tax holiday, automatic sequestration spending cuts, lapse of federal borrowing authority and other spending and tax provisions set to contract the budget automatically at the end of the year.

"Most of the cognoscenti in Washington say, Of course they'll reach an agreement because they can't not reach an agreement,'" Ornstein said. "Get inside the belly of the beast and you realize these days they can not reach an agreement."

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Joe Manchin

Man On A Wire: Joe Manchin's Two-Step Alienates Dems And Fails To Convince Republicans

Brian Beutler | April 20, 2012, 12:52PM

Updated at 2:05 p.m.

Sen. Joe Manchin's may think running for re-election as a Democrat while remaining uncommitted to President Obama will buy him cover with ... somebody. But it's not with Republicans.

"What a difference one Democratic Senator's upcoming re-election and three years of failed economic policies by the Democrats makes," emails Brian Walsh, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in a statement. "But no amount of election-year rhetoric from Senator Manchin will cause voters in West Virginia to forget that three years ago he unabashedly supported President Obama, while predicting great things for West Virginia under his Administration. Instead of trying to put distance between he and the President, Senator Manchin should be more focused on a simple, three word message to his constituents - 'I am sorry.'"

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John Boehner

Quiet Season On Capitol Hill Exposes Boehner's Deep Challenges

Brian Beutler | March 23, 2012, 6:03AM

John Boehner and Eric Cantor

John Boehner's never had strong control over his conference. Since he became House Speaker last January he's needed Democratic help to advance every must-pass bill.

That was true from the first government shutdown battle last spring, through the debt-limit showdown last summer, and into the payroll tax cut fight, which left Republicans in political dark territory from the end of 2011 through February of this year.

But now that the calendar's mostly clear of "must-do" items, a series of smaller imbroglios has exposed the fact that Boehner's members can't unite behind even the simplest, most politically innocuous measures. Now it's reached the point where even Senate Republicans are outwardly admitting that their House counterparts don't have their act together.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Winners And Losers Of The Payroll Tax Cut Debacle

Sahil Kapur | February 23, 2012, 2:39PM

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden

President Obama signed the payroll tax cut package into law late Wednesday night, capping off a months-long saga that might prove to be Congress's last major battle before the 2012 election. So just what does the final outcome mean for the various political players? Here's how things broadly broke down.

President Obama is the obvious winner, having portrayed himself throughout the long fight as the champion of middle-class tax cuts and economic security for the long-term unemployed. The payroll battle, which played out alongside a gradually improving economy, helped bump up Obama's approval ratings and gave him an important political weapon for re-election.

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Mitt Romney

The GOP's Real Tax Cut Goal Has Nothing To Do With The Middle Class (CHART)

Brian Beutler | February 23, 2012, 5:50AM

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks at the Livonia and Greater Farmington Hills Area Chambers of Commerce luncheon at the Farmington Hills Manor in Farmington Hills, Michigan, Thursday, February 16, 2012. (Patricia Beck/Detroit Free Press/MCT)

You'd think that with the economy growing, and indeed accelerating in its growth, the GOP would be setting itself up to claim all the credit come November -- rather than reluctantly embracing President Obama's call for a payroll tax cut, while talking down its efficacy as a tonic for the job market.

Instead they're obstinately digging in. And with all of the party's presidential hopefuls lukewarm on the payroll tax cut and leapfrogging each other with plans to cut taxes for wealthy Americans alone, Republicans are inadvertently clarifying for voters what they know to be unpopular economic policies.

"Let's be honest, this is an economic relief package, not a bill that's going to grow the economy and create jobs," said House Speaker John Boehner last week in a statement ahead of the passage of the payroll tax cut deal.

The package itself won a modest majority of Republican votes in the House and a significant minority of Republican votes in the Senate. But both stand in complete agreement with the GOP presidential field on the need to enact large, permanent tax cuts for the highest earners in the country. This is what Mitt Romney refers to as pro-growth tax policy. So to give you a clearer sense of what the GOP would have rather done than renew the payroll tax cut, here's a graphical breakdown.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Senate Passes Payroll Tax Bill Over Broad GOP Opposition

Brian Beutler | February 17, 2012, 12:17PM

Harry Reid (D-NV) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Quick on the heels of the House, the Senate has passed legislation to extend a two percent payroll tax cut through the end of the year.

The final vote was 60-36 with 30 Rs and 6 Ds bucking their leaders to oppose the package. It now goes off to a jubilant White House for President Obama's signature.

The legislation, which also extends emergency unemployment benefits and Medicare reimbursement rates until January 1, 2013.

Payroll Tax Cut

House Passes Payroll Tax Cut Compromise

Brian Beutler | February 17, 2012, 11:41AM

John Boehner

By a comfortable margin, the House of Representatives on Friday passed legislation to extend a two percent payroll tax cut through the end of the year.

The final vote was 293-132, with 91 Republicans and 41 Democrats bucking their party leaders to vote against the package. Five Republicans and four Democrats did not vote.

The bill reflects an agreement between GOP and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate. It also extends emergency unemployment insurance though December, though it reduces the number of weeks in which people looking for work can draw on benefits. And it means that Medicare physicians won't experience a steep pay cut by extending their reimbursement rates for at least 10 months.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Details Of The Final Payroll Tax Cut Deal

Sahil Kapur | February 16, 2012, 4:02PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

TPM has obtained a detailed summary of the payroll tax cut deal, prepared by House GOP. Scroll down to read the document.

The deal caps off lengthy negotiations that achieved a breakthrough this week after House Republicans agreed to extend the payroll tax cut without offsets. Unemployment insurance and the Medicare "doc fix" will be paid for with spending cuts elsewhere in the budget.

"As of 4 p.m. a majority of House conferees and a majority of Senate Conferees have signed the conference report for HR 3630," a GOP aide told TPM Thursday.

It's expected to be voted on and wrapped up by the end of this weekend.

Payroll Tax Holiday Agreement-TPM

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Payroll Tax Cut

Payroll Tax Drama Exposes Rift Between House And Senate GOP

Brian Beutler | February 16, 2012, 1:05PM

The House and Senate have cut a deal to extend the payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician reimbursement rates. But it almost didn't happen. And the near miss is exposing a rift between House GOP leaders and their Senate counterparts.

Late on Wednesday evening, Senate negotiators -- four Democrats, three Republicans -- had a vote count problem. To move the payroll tax cut forward, four of them needed to sign on to the broad agreement. House Dem and GOP negotiators were all lined up. But none of the Senate Republican conferees would put pen to paper. When Democrat Ben Cardin (D-MD) wouldn't sign on either, based on his objection to cuts to federal worker pensions, the Senate found itself one vote shy.

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Payroll Tax Cut

It's A Wrap: Congress Finalizes Payroll Tax Cut Deal

Sahil Kapur | February 16, 2012, 10:20AM

Lawmakers sealed the deal late Wednesday night on yearlong extensions of the payroll tax cut, unemployment compensation and Medicare physician payment rates. It's a political victory for President Obama and the conclusion of a no-win situation for Republicans that they were eager to move past.

The agreement was announced by Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Rep. Dave Camp (R-MI), the two lead negotiators in conference committee. Final votes are expected by the end of this weekend.

The conclusion comes at the end of a grueling series of negotiations that spilled over from last year. That led House Republicans to this week drop their demand that the payroll tax cut be offset with spending cuts elsewhere, paving the way for the agreement as the two sides had been deadlocked on pay-fors.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Paul Ryan: Yes, Payroll Tax Fight Hurt GOP

Brian Beutler | February 16, 2012, 10:15AM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) speaks during a press conference on the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. on August 1, 2011

With the ink drying on a final deal, one of the highest profile Republicans in Congress said the December and February fights over extending the payroll tax cut and other expiring provisions through the end of the year have hurt Republicans -- at least in the short term.

"It's a tough issue because they had to compromise... But yeah, I think the payroll tax deal, from a political perspective, certainly caused damage because it muddled the differences [between the parties," House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) told reporters at a breakfast roundtable hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "It got us down into a skirmish, where the differences got muddled, which is I think what the President loves."

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Payroll Tax Cut

Last-Minute Fights Slow Down Payroll Tax Cut Deal

Brian Beutler and Sahil Kapur | February 15, 2012, 11:31AM

Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)

Barring an unexpected collapse in negotiations, a broad deal to extend the temporary payroll tax cut and other expiring measures will be finalized Wednesday. But with time winding down, top Democrats and Republicans are still fighting over key details -- particularly how to pay for over $50 billion of the approximately $150 billion package.

One of the likely financing provisions would require federal workers to provide greater contributions to their own retirement packages.

"I'm very unhappy with the projected pay-fors which hit average working Americans, otherwise known as federal employees, pretty hard," House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) told TPM and one other reporter in the Capitol Wednesday. "I don't know the exact details and the exact details are being worked on. So from that standpoint I'm not happy."

Hoyer represents a Maryland district that's chockablock with federal workers, which underlies his concerns. Asked if he himself planned to vote for the measure, Hoyer proclaimed "I don't know."

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Payroll Tax Cut

Lawmakers Strike Tentative Deal On Payroll Tax Package

Sahil Kapur | February 14, 2012, 9:05PM

Harry Reid (D-NV) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Top Democratic and Republican negotiators have struck a broad tentative agreement to extend the payroll tax cut, unemployment insurance and Medicare physician payment rates through the end of the year, aides from both sides who are familiar with the deal tell TPM. Some of the details have yet to be ironed out, but Congress appears to have had a critical breakthrough in negotiations to prevent the three provisions from lapsing.

The payroll tax cut will be extended through 2012 without an offset, at a cost of $185 billion. House Republicans paved the way for it this week by dropping their demand that continuation of the tax holiday be matched with equal spending cuts elsewhere.

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Harry Reid

As Payroll Fight Wraps Up, Dems Prepare For Next Battle

Brian Beutler | February 14, 2012, 3:47PM

House Democrats will support a GOP bill to extend the expiring payroll tax cut through the end of the year, when Republicans bring it to a vote later this week. That basically puts to rest any remaining doubts that the provision will expire at the end of the month.

Now the fight is on between the parties over whether and how to renew two other expiring provisions -- extended unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician reimbursement rates (the "doc fix") -- before March. And the balance of power in this battle is much less clear.

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Barack Obama

Obama Urges Public To Keep Up The Payroll Tax Pressure On GOP

Sahil Kapur | February 14, 2012, 11:29AM

President Barack Obama during his 2012 "State of the Union" address

President Obama on Tuesday suggested that the House GOP's recent willingness to extend the payroll tax cut without offsets is "good news" but warned that it can't be taken for granted -- and capitalized by demanding an extension of the tax break and unemployment insurance without "ideological sideshows."

"The good news is over the last couple of days we've seen some hopeful signs in Congress that they realize that they've got to get this done. And you're starting to hear voices talk about how can we go ahead and make this happen in a timely way on behalf of the American people," Obama said at the White House. "That is good news."

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems Plot Payroll Tax Cut End Game

Brian Beutler | February 13, 2012, 5:29PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

After a few hours of thought, Democrats have decided the GOP's blink on the payroll tax cut is an unvarnished good, not some devious trick.

Republicans have all but agreed to renew the payroll tax cut through the end of the year without paying for it -- a huge tactical swing for them. But they're still insisting that the other expiring measures -- extended unemployment insurance (UI), and Medicare physician reimbursements (the "doc fix") -- are somehow offset with cuts elsewhere.

Having taken the most politically important, and most costly item off the table, are Republicans in the driver's seat in negotiations over extending the other two items? Not necessarily.

A senior Senate Dem aide explains how Democrats might well proceed from here.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Why The GOP's Payroll Tax Cut Cave Is An Even Bigger Deal Than You Think

Brian Beutler | February 13, 2012, 4:40PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

The GOP's accession to reality on the payroll tax cut is being cast as a key victory for Democrats and President Obama. Republicans caved, the payroll tax will almost certainly be renewed, and the economy won't take a tough hit just as the recovery's beginning to accelerate.

But it also reveals a flaw -- a potentially huge flaw -- in the conservative movement's generational strategy to roll back the federal safety net.

These might sound like two wildly disparate issues, but they're actually variations on a years-long theme. And the outcome of the payroll tax debacle bodes poorly for the GOP on the rest of their long-run goals.

Here's why.

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Payroll Tax Cut

GOP Drops Demand For Offsetting Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | February 13, 2012, 2:10PM

Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Facing emboldened Democratic negotiators and a quickly thinning legislative calendar, House Republican leaders have offered to extend the payroll tax holiday through the end of the year without paying for it. The development represents a dramatic reversal for GOP leaders, who nearly allowed the payroll tax cut to lapse in December in part because of their insistence that the package be financially offset.

"Because the president and Senate Democratic leaders have not allowed their conferees to support a responsible bipartisan agreement, today House Republicans will introduce a backup plan that would simply extend the payroll tax holiday for the remainder of the year while the conference negotiations continue regarding offsets, unemployment insurance, and the 'doc fix,'" said GOP leaders in an official statement Monday afternoon.

That's a huge concession to legislative and political realities, and a tacit admission that Republican leaders desparately want to avoid another no-win fight over renewing a tax cut that overwhelmingly benefits the middle class.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems: GOP Bet On Bad Economy Creating Payroll Tax Cut Gridlock

Brian Beutler | February 7, 2012, 4:03PM

Democrats are emboldened enough by their political turn of fortune that party leaders are laying payroll tax cut contretemps at the feet of Republicans rooting for further economic strife.

"[W]e've seen improvement: The unemployment rate's going down; people are getting back to work; there's a more confident air in America," Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) told reporters Tuesday at a leadership briefing with reporters on Capitol Hill. "Let's make no mistake: There's some Republicans that don't think that really works with their strategy of defeating President Obama. These are some of the same voices that are opposing any bipartisan agreement to extend the payroll tax cuts."

Other top Democrats say the same.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Why The Payroll Tax Cut Is In Jeopardy

Brian Beutler and Sahil Kapur | February 7, 2012, 1:26PM

Top Democrats are openly calling into doubt the chances that Congressional negotiators will reach an agreement to renew the payroll tax cut before it expires at the end of the month. The culprit, they say, is a deep schism within the Republican conference over whether the the tax holiday is a good policy or just a political gimmick to help President Obama win re-election.

The consequences of failure would result in a typical middle-class worker taking home about $1000 less this year, just as demand is starting to return to the U.S. economy and the unemployed are beginning to find work. Democrats, sensing political momentum from improving economic conditions, are warning Republicans that they'll be held to account for the consequences if the tax cut ultimately lapses.

"Time is wasting, so that I'm very concerned about it, and whether or not they can get to agreement is in doubt at this point in time," House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer told reporters at his weekly Capitol briefing Tuesday. "Democrats want to see the economy grow, and there are some here, frankly, who are just as satisfied to have the economy not grow, not create jobs, not have GDP growth, so it can help their politics."

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Taxes

Senate Democrats Plan To Put Republicans On The Wrong Side Of The Middle Class

Brian Beutler | January 25, 2012, 3:11PM

Senate Democrats are preparing an aggressive legislative agenda to complement the vision President Obama outlined in his State of the Union Address. The goal is to test the idea that the public supports an agenda of aggressive federal action on behalf of the middle class, and that Republicans are locked in a pattern of reactionary opposition, even to popular policies.

The push is premised on the notion that the country has turned the corner on the fights over deficits and the size of government, and that keeping issues of equity and opportunity for the middle class at the center of the national debate will redound to Democrats' political benefit, either by breaking the GOP or by putting them on the wrong side of public opinion.

But in an extremely consequential election year, when consensus becomes an endangered species on Capitol Hill, it will take a groundswell of political pressure to force either party to work with the other on a substantive agenda. So expect the Dems to hawk these issues relentlessly.

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Eric Cantor

Cantor: Health Care And Tax Fights Will Be Decided By The Election

Brian Beutler | January 23, 2012, 3:51PM

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) urges the Senate to vote on the house-passed jobs bill during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on October 27, 2011.

At a briefing with a handful of reporters in his Capitol suite Monday afternoon, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor outlined the coming year on Capitol Hill -- one he said would be marked by increased oversight of the Obama administration; an ongoing debate between the parties about how best to grow the economy; and what he called a bipartisan effort to prevent automatic cuts to defense spending from kicking in at the end of the year.

But the two issues that have most divided the parties since President Obama took office -- the two most consequential pieces of the budget and the U.S. economy -- will most likely be decided by the election.

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Rick Santorum

CHART: Santorum Calls For Tiny (Huge!) Tax Cuts For The Poor (Rich)

Brian Beutler | January 19, 2012, 3:50PM

The Tax Policy Center in DC has released numbers Rick Santorum's tax plan -- the latest, and perhaps final, in a series of analyses of the leading GOP contenders' tax plans.

It's a variation on the theme underlying all of the Republicans' tax proposals -- its impact on the middle class is trivial compared to the massive tax cut it proposes for the wealthiest Americans.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems Kick Off New Year With Tougher Stance

Sahil Kapur | January 18, 2012, 6:23PM

Nancy Pelosi

For Democrats, the new year has brought a new, tougher negotiating posture -- buoyed by their payroll tax cut victory last month, tired of the politics of kowtowing to Republican demands and eager to draw a clear contrast between the values of the two parties.

Instead of starting off by compromising to narrow the divide with Republicans on how to fund the payroll tax package beyond February, Democratic leaders are beginning 2012 by staking out a firm stance on their left flank: fund a full-year extension of the tax cut, unemployment benefits and Medicare "doc fix" with a millionaire surtax and war savings -- two offsets they know won't go over well with Republicans.

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Henry Waxman

Top Democrat Says GOP Will Have To Budge Big Time in Payroll Tax Fight

Brian Beutler | January 18, 2012, 9:51AM

A key Democrat tasked with helping to negotiate a full-year extension of the payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician reimbursements says Republicans will have to move significantly off their December demands or all three will lapse.

"We want to extend the middle class tax cut, we want to extend unemployment insurance, and we want to keep our promise to Medicare beneficiaries that we're going to pay for their doctors, so they can have access to their physicians," Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) told me in a brief interview off the House floor Tuesday. "But I'm not going to support something to pay for that by cutting Medicare or cutting the middle class. We can reach an agreement on these things, but the Republicans are going to have to move."

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Payroll Tax Cut

New Year, New Government Showdown Brewing

Brian Beutler and Sahil Kapur | January 17, 2012, 5:30AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

With Congress set to return to town this week, staff-level bipartisan discussions are underway over how to pay for extensions of the payroll tax cut, unemployment insurance and the so-called Medicare "doc fix" beyond the end of February, when they're set to expire. The private meetings are a continuation of the December showdown, which ended with two-month extensions of the three provisions and a guarantee that the House and Senate would negotiate a year-long measure.

But many of the factors that made the two month bill so contentious remain in place, and threaten a new brinkmanship at the very beginning of this session of Congress.

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Affordable Care Act

How To Easily End The 'Doc Fix' Problem -- And Why House GOP Is Opposed

Sahil Kapur | January 16, 2012, 5:32AM

Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-GA) And House GOP Doctors Caucus

One of the items Congress extended for two months in the December payroll tax package is current Medicare payment rates to physicians, averting a steep 27.4 percent cut. Although a yearlong "doc fix" is seen as likeliest when lawmakers return to town this week and begin negotiating pay-fors, even that would merely be punting an issue in need of a permanent fix.

Over the last few months there's been serious talk in Congress of buying out the "doc fix" issue once and for all with war savings from troop withdrawals in Iraq and Afghanistan, estimated at over half a trillion dollars.

The idea has been championed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and multiple other key senators including John Kerry (D-MA), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Tom Harkin (D-IA).

But even though this plan could remove for free the $300-billion-and-growing albatross from the nation's neck, it faces fierce resistance from House Republicans. In fact, some of the vocal opponents are doctors in the caucus, whom Leadership tends to give the first bite at the apple on health issues.

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Economy

Top White House Economist: Economy Still Vulnerable

Brian Beutler | January 12, 2012, 11:12AM

President Barack Obama

One of the White House's top economists Thursday said recent good economic news is a sign that the economy continues to recover slowly, and suggested it's still susceptible to shocks -- specifically the possibility that Congress will fail to extend the payroll tax cut through the end of the year.

"If you look at the statistics that are coming in, it's clear that they're painting a picture of an economy that is slowly recovering -- slowly but surely recovering," said Council of Economic Advisers chairman Alan Krueger at an event hosted by the Center for American Progress. "I think it's extremely important that we keep that momentum going forward. The steps that I would highlight most importantly are extending the payroll tax cut through the end of the year and extending unemployment insurance benefits. The CBO concluded that of all the measures we've looked at, extending unemployment benefits have the most bang for the buck in terms of supporting demand, raising economic growth and creating jobs."

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems Warn GOP: Don't Strangle Recovery By Screwing With Payroll Tax

Brian Beutler | January 6, 2012, 12:24PM

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Top Democrats pulled a little stunt Friday morning, when they tried to upend the House's pro forma session to confer about and debate the payroll tax cut.

But in their remarks to the press afterward, they parlayed today's positive jobs figures into a serious political warning to the GOP: Don't threaten the recovery by playing games with the economy. In essence, today's positive economic news raised the stakes of the payroll tax cut fight -- if Republicans can't get their act together and the tax cut lapses, it will muffle the recovery just as it's finally starting to turn economist's heads.

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2012

Why The Policy Battles Of 2011 Won't Be Settled Until After The 2012 Elections

Brian Beutler | December 29, 2011, 2:25PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

When President Obama and the GOP's primary contenders talk up the 2012 election as a choice for voters between two visions for the country's future, it's only about half hyperbole.

We'll see a prelude of this fact in the months between now and November both on the campaign trail and on Capitol Hill as politicians club each other with their past votes and statements on taxes, Medicare, Social Security, and other potent issues. But it's not just rhetoric.

To an unappreciated extent, the legislative whipsawing in 2011 has set the country and the parties up for a major reckoning about the role and size of government at the end of next year. And the outcome of the election will help determine which side of the argument wins.

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John Boehner

What Boehner Faces In 2012 After Payroll Tax Debacle

Brian Beutler | December 29, 2011, 5:52AM

U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) speaks to the press during his weekly press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on December 1, 2011.

In the immediate aftermath of the GOP's payroll tax debacle, a handful of conservative House Republicans publicly attacked their leaders -- particularly Speaker John Boehner (R-OH).

"I am disappointed that our Republican leadership in both the House and Senate chose a course of political expediency rather than standing on conservative principle," said Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO) in an official statement.

Others appealed to Fox News, where conservatives and Republicans feel more comfortable expounding on party/movement contretemps.

"He's (Boehner) got a big problem when he comes back," one anonymous congressman claimed. "He may have a hard time keeping his Speakership after this."

"We were hung out to dry by our leadership," said another unnamed member.

The list goes on. But the holidays calmed the backlash, and with a week's hindsight a consensus of sorts has emerged among party strategists, aides (current and former) and congressional scholars. Not all agree on the question of how well or poorly Boehner handled the situation. But though Boehner's 2012 won't be easy, those House conservatives who were seeing blood last week are likely to be disappointed again.

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Government Shutdown

The GOP's Year Of Living Dangerously: What Did Its Hardline Strategy Produce?

Brian Beutler | December 28, 2011, 5:33AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

When the House GOP's enormous freshman class arrived on Capitol Hill in January, it wasn't uncommon to hear them sound off on the mistakes their predecessors made in 1995. Despite having shut down the government -- twice! -- House Republicans under Newt Gingrich had caved too easily, didn't push hard enough, didn't embody the true spirit of conservatism.

But the new House leadership wasn't so sanguine. Many had lived through the Gingrich revolution and its aftermath. Others had been around long enough to hear tales of it. And so they mapped out a strategy specifically designed to avoid what they believe were the party's '90s-era mistakes.

In other words, the two factions -- the newly energized backbenchers and the veteran leadership -- were pulling each other in opposite directions. The tug of war left the House GOP's strategic center of gravity stuck in an unstable position. The party was committed to fighting as hard as possible, but stopping short of its most conservative members' slash and burn instincts.

The 2011 version of the House GOP, in not always easy coordination with Senate Republicans, would approve must-pass bills, but only after dragging negotiations down to the wire and extracting as many concessions as possible from Senate Dems and the White House each time. We saw that strategy play out over and over again this year, with mixed results for both parties and largely poor results for the country at large.

Here's a quick lookback at a year of living dangerously -- and the series of recurring crises that it produced.

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Harry Reid

House And Senate Lock In New, Higher-Stakes Fight Over The Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | December 23, 2011, 10:06AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

The end of the payroll tax cut standoff couldn't have been more different from the heat of it: quick, noiseless, drama free.

Without a single objection, the House and Senate passed a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut -- a bill that very closely mirrored the compromise House Republicans had roundly rejected just one week ago. There wasn't even a recorded vote.

It would be a huge mistake, though, to treat Friday's smooth sailing as a harbinger of the payroll tax fight to come.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems Serve Up Ironic Tick Tock Of Events Leading To Payroll Tax Victory

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 6:28PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

A senior Democratic aide offers this tongue in cheek tick tock on the House GOP's payroll tax cut surrender.

· On Sunday, Senator Reid called on Speaker Boehner to pass the Senate's bipartisan compromise.

· Senator Reid waited for Speaker Boehner to agree to pass the Senate's bipartisan compromise.

· Today, Speaker Boehner's staff contacted Senator Reid's staff, and agreed to pass the Senate's bipartisan compromise.

Funny. Also basically true. The tick tock on the other side of the Capitol was much more dramatic.

Payroll Tax Cut

Boehner Takes Strong Hand With House GOP After Payroll Tax Meltdown

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 6:05PM

House Speaker John Boehner with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the foreground.

In a conference call with House Republicans early Thursday evening, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) took no questions after making it clear to his members that the game was up and they would have to swallow the Democratic payroll tax extension.

Boehner laid out the agreement he forged to temporarily renew the payroll tax holiday -- one his members will hate -- and said the goal is to pass the new bill by unanimous consent on Friday morning. That means if even a single recalcitrant Republican objects to his plan, the chaos will drag on for several days.

At a press conference with reporters just after the call, Boehner admitted he has no assurances that the unanimous consent request will fly -- but in a sign that he's finally laying down the law with his unruly members, he vowed to force them to take an up-or-down vote on the issue next week if they cause any trouble.

Asked if all his members would muffle their grievances and allow the bill to move ahead, Boehner admitted, "I don't know that but our goal is to do this by unanimous consent."

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Payroll Tax Cut

Boehner Announces Deal To Swallow Senate Payroll Tax Conference

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 5:29PM

Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH)

House Speaker John Boehner made it official moments ago in a written statement. After blowing up an agreement to prevent this year's payroll tax cut from lapsing on January 1, House Republicans will adopt legislation nearly identical to the stopgap bill the Senate passed on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis this past Saturday.

"Senator Reid and I have reached an agreement that will ensure taxes do not increase for working families on January 1 while ensuring that a complex new reporting burden is not unintentionally imposed on small business job creators," Boehner says. "Under the terms of our agreement, a new bill will be approved by the House that reflects the bipartisan agreement in the Senate along with new language that allows job creators to process and withhold payroll taxation under the same accounting structure that is currently in place. The Senate will join the House in immediately appointing conferees, with instructions to reach agreement in the weeks ahead on a full-year payroll tax extension. We will ask the House and Senate to approve this agreement by unanimous consent before Christmas. I thank our Members - particularly those who have remained here in the Capitol with the holidays approaching - for their efforts to enact a full-year extension of the payroll tax cut for working families."

The Senate's payroll bill included a provision to prorate the payroll tax cap. Payroll taxes only apply to the first $110,000 of income, after which the rate falls to zero. To adjust for that, the Senate bill created a new cap at just over $18,000, to reflect the two month-length of the payroll cut. The technical correction in the new bill will leave the existing $110,000 cap in place.

Boehner will discuss the deal in a 5:30 Capitol press conference.

Barack Obama

BREAKING: House Republicans Cave, Agree To Two-Month Payroll Tax Cut Extension

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 3:51PM

John Boehner

A top Senate Democratic aide says House Republicans have privately offered up the terms of their surrender on the payroll tax cut, pending sign off from their notoriously unwieldy caucus.

As Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) suggested Thursday morning, it will involve House Republicans passing a temporary extension of the payroll tax cut (and unemployment insurance and reimbursement rates for Medicare physicians) in exchange for Senate Dems agreeing to a formal conference committee to work out a year-long extension of all items.

The temporary extension won't be identical to the one Senate Dems passed. It will differ in very minor technical ways. House Republicans have already rejected the bipartisan Senate compromise bill, so they'll have to draw up essentially the same bill from scratch, pass it in the House and then have the Senate readopt it by unanimous consent.

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Payroll Tax Cut

It's Unanimous: All Stakeholders Say It's Time For House GOP To Cave On Payroll Tax

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 1:42PM

President Barack Obama

If there's one thing that House Democrats, Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans, political strategists of both parties and the White House all agree on, it's that House Republicans need to cave in and end the payroll tax stand off.

Speaking at the White House Thursday, President Obama gave a sloppy wet kiss to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's suggestion that House Republicans fold, with only the thinnest of covers. Essentially, all of the principals involved, except House Republicans, now agree that House Republicans should do what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) proposed all along -- pass the Senate's stopgap bill to extend the payroll tax cut (and other expiring provisions) for two months with the promise that Democrats will work with Republicans on a year-long agreement.

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Harry Reid

Reid To Boehner: McConnell's Right -- You Should Fold

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 12:20PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says John Boehner should grab the life-line Mitch McConnell just tossed him.

"I agree with Senator McConnell and the many other Republicans who have spoken up in recent days that the most reasonable path forward is for the House of Representatives to pass the Senate's bipartisan agreement immediately, to make sure that middle-class families do not wake up to a tax increase on January 1st," Reid said in an official statement. "Once the House passes the Senate's bipartisan compromise to hold middle class families harmless while we work out our differences, I will be happy to restart the negotiating process to forge a year-long extension.... Now, it is important that we now hear from Speaker Boehner in light of Senator McConnell's comments."

Boehner and GOP payroll tax negotiators are meeting as of this writing to mull McConnell's proposal -- we should know what they decide very soon.