Recession

CHART: U.S. Birth Rate Drops As Economy Falters

Igor Bobic | October 14, 2011, 11:12AM

A new Pew report details a sharp decline in fertility rates across the United States that appears closely tied to the economic recession that hit the country in approximately 2007.

The correlation between a faltering economy and the national birth rate is nothing new. What is astounding, however, is that the birth rate for almost every state has dropped dramatically. In 2007, the country experienced a record number of births, 4,316,233. Since then, following one of the worst recessions the U.S. has ever seen, Pew's provisional data shows that the number of births in 2010 was just 4,007,000.

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Occupy Wall Street

Pew: More Americans Interested In Amanda Knox Than Occupy Wall Street

Kyle Leighton | October 13, 2011, 5:55AM

Every week the Pew Research Center tracks what news topics Americans are interested in. This past week, the stories ranged from the economy to the passing of Steve Jobs to the 2012 elections. But Pew also found that interest in the return of Amanda Knox, the American acquitted of murder in Italy, attracted more attention than the Occupy Wall Street protests, despite the same amount of news coverage.

Pew's "News Interest Index" showed that seven percent of respondents said they were interested in news on Occupy Wall Street, and ten said they wanted to know more about Knox. Both were dwarfed by interest in the economy and somewhat by Mr. Jobs, who was of interest to 14 percent. An equal seven percent of coverage was afforded to both Knox and Occupy Wall Street.

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Military service

Pew Study: Only A Third Of Veterans Who Joined After 9/11 Say Iraq And Afghanistan Were Worth Fighting

Kyle Leighton | October 5, 2011, 12:17PM

A soldier helps guard the Rumelia Oil Field in southern Iraq on April 2, 2003.

In a wide-ranging study surveying US veterans, the Pew Research Center documented the attitudes of service members who were involved in the conflicts associated with the War On Terror over the last ten years and those who served before it.

The study unpacked data on veterans' perception of their missions abroad and their effectiveness, as well as their lives since returning to the US. The overarching perception seems to contain a disconnect between service members who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and those who served in previous wars: those from the post-9/11 era are more likely to report difficulty in re-entry to civilian life.

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Deficit

No Confidence Men: 62 Percent Have Little Or No Confidence In GOP Leaders On Debt

Kyle Leighton | September 26, 2011, 6:28PM

House Speaker John Boehner said that he got 98 percent of what he wanted in the final debt ceiling deal this summer. But the percentage of Americans that trust the GOP to do what's right on the deficit is significantly lower than that -- nearly three times lower.

As Americans' stomachs turn at the possibility of a government shutdown over yet another spending battle, everyone seems to be at fault. On Monday morning Gallup released the news that more people are dissatisfied with the way government is being run than they were after Watergate, a very high (or low) bar that Washington has hit a few times during the last decade or so. Later on Monday the Pew Research Center released some delineations about that sentiment.

Pew conducted a survey on how Americans feel about political leaders' ability to handle the deficit, an issue that has been eclipsed as the highest priority by jobs, but is still a major concern. The data showed that only 35 percent of Americans have confidence that GOP congressional leaders will do the right thing on the deficit, 43 percent thought the same about congressional Democrats, but a majority of 52 percent felt that President Obama will do the right thing on the issue.

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Polls

Pew: Majority Find GOP Unfavorable, But Obama's Leadership Ratings Also Drop

Kyle Leighton | August 26, 2011, 6:23AM

Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

Polls have shown for weeks that voters are upset with Washington, and not just in a normal partisan bickering way. Congressional approval ratings are at historic lows after the almost-default and President Obama, who had maintained an approval rating around 50 percent throughout his presidency despite some major legislative battles, has seen his rating hit a low of 38 percent just a few days ago.

But a new Pew poll out on Wednesday provided a more in-depth look at Americans' frustrations: namely, very high unfavorability ratings for the Republican Party, and lower ratings on President Obama's ability to lead.

The poll shows problems for the GOP in two ways. First, the GOP has seen a more severe fall in its rating after the debt fight, as its approval now sits at 34 percent against 59 percent disapproval, a large shift from the closer split that Republicans had the first month they controlled the House: 43 - 48 in February. The Democratic Party had a slim positive rating in February of 47 - 46, but has also slipped in all the Washington brinkmanship, to 43 - 50.

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Debt ceiling

Study: Tea Partiers Outworked Democrats In Debt Fight

Benjy Sarlin | August 2, 2011, 5:49PM

Remember that enthusiasm gap from the 2010 election that was oh-so-deadly for Democrats? It looks like it hung around for the debt ceiling fight as well.

A telephone poll by the Pew Research Center for People and Press found that Republicans and Tea Party-affiliated respondents both paid more attention to the debt negotiations and were more likely to take action to influence the outcome.

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Polls

Disgusting, Stupid and Frustrating: Everyone Hates The Debt Debate

Kyle Leighton | August 2, 2011, 6:00AM

Breaking news. Americans, who were not exactly the biggest fans of Congress and partisan politics in general, are upset about the gridlock in Washington. But a new poll finds that debt ceiling crisis seems to have really pushed the traditional standards of American disgust.

A new Pew Research/Washington Post survey asked 1,001 adults about the words they associated with the debt debate. The most cited? "Ridiculous, disgusting, stupid, and frustrating," along with "terrible, disappointing, childish, and joke."

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Barack Obama

Record Number Of Americans Want Troops Out Of Afghanistan

Jon Terbush | June 22, 2011, 5:45AM

One day ahead of an address to the nation in which President Obama will announce his plans for the nation's future involvement in Afghanistan, a Pew survey finds that a record high level of Americans now support an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops.

In the survey, 56% of respondents said they thought troops should come home "as soon as possible." At the same time, 39% said the military should remain until the situation in Afghanistan has stabilized, a record low in Pew's surveys.

According to multiple reports, Obama will lay out a plan Wednesday night to bring home thousands of troops beginning in July. In addition, he is expected to announce a strategy for bringing home the 30,000 additional "surge" troops he ordered sent to Afghanistan in December 2009.

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Economy

Economic Pessimism Poses Threat To Obama's Reelection Bid

Jon Terbush | June 9, 2011, 6:45AM

As it stands now, the biggest threat to President Obama's reelection bid isn't a Republican challenger -- it's the economy, stupid.

Obama's overall approval rating -- and by extension his odds of winning reelection next year -- are inextricably tied to the health of the economy, as a number of recent polls have made very clear. While it's still a long way till election day, at the same time that economic pessimism has grown polls are showing Americans losing confidence in Obama's ability to turn things around.

The good news for Obama is that polls have not yet shown any of the Republican presidential candidates consistently topping him in hypothetical matchups, or even putting up much of a fight. So while these polls have reinforced the time-tested notion that the economy's health is crucial to a president's reelection bid, they've also illuminated how weak the current crop of Republican frontrunners are -- including presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney.

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Medicare

Poll: Large Majorities Of Elderly, Most Informed Oppose Medicare Privatization

Jon Terbush | June 6, 2011, 3:39PM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

In a potentially dire sign for Republicans looking ahead to 2012, a Pew poll released Monday finds that a strong majority of elderly Americans oppose the GOP's proposal to privatize Medicare.

In addition, the poll found that not only do Democrats oppose the proposed changes, but pluralities of both Republicans and independents do as well.

Overal 41% of Americans opposed turning Medicare into a voucher program where seniors would buy their own coverage in the private sector, while 36% supported such a plan, according to the poll. Opposition is heavily skewed toward older Americans, as might be expected, with people over 65 years-old lining up against the plan by a 51% to 25% split. Fifty-one percent of respondents in the 50-64 year-old bracket also opposed the plan, while 32% supported it.

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Barack Obama

Poll: Obama's Approval Rating Jumps Nine Points After Bin Laden's Death

Jon Terbush | May 3, 2011, 12:48PM

President Barack Obama

Immediately following the announcement that American forces had killed Osama bin Laden, President Obama's approval rating leapt to its highest level since 2009 in a Washington Post/Pew poll.

In the poll, which was conducted on Monday, 56% of Americans said they approved of Obama's job performance, compared to 38% who said the disapproved. That's a marked turnaround from one month ago, when 47% of Americans gave Obama positive marks on his job performance, while 45% said otherwise.

TPM SLIDESHOW: Osama Bin Laden Killed: The Nation Reacts

It also marks the highest approval rating the President has enjoyed since June 2009, when 61% of Americans approved of his job performance, and 30% disapproved.

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Government Shutdown

Poll: Only 3% Describe Budget Negotiations Positively

Jon Terbush | April 12, 2011, 3:12PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Americans have almost nothing nice to say about the budget negotiations that narrowly averted a government shutdown, but that doesn't mean they have nothing to say at all.

In a Pew poll released Tuesday, just 3% of adult Americans nationwide used positive terms to describe the budget negotiations, while 69% described the negotiations negatively. Additionally, 16% used neutral terms to express their feelings about the budget wrangling that nearly resulted in a government shutdown last week.

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Barack Obama

Poll: Almost Six In Ten Say U.S. Has No Clear Goal In Libya

Jon Terbush | April 5, 2011, 6:03PM

According to a Pew poll released Tuesday, 57% of Americans don't think the U.S. has a clear plan in Libya, a seven-point rise since last week, and one that comes after President Obama addressed the country to lay out the nation's involvement and goals there.

Additionally, only 30% of adult Americans said the U.S. has a clear goal with the campaign in Libya.

Last Monday -- two weeks after American and allied forces began launching airstrikes on Muammar Qaddafi's military installations -- Obama delivered a prime time address to the nation laying out his reasons for joining the mission, and detailing what America's involvement would be going forward.

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Libya

Poll: 50% Say U.S. Has No Clear Plan In Libya

Jon Terbush | March 28, 2011, 5:21PM

President Barack Obama

With President Obama set to address the nation tonight about the country's military engagement in Libya, a Pew poll released today finds that half of Americans say the U.S. does not have a clear goal there.

In the poll of adult Americans, 50% of respondents said they do not believe that U.S. and allied forces have a clear goal with their mission in Libya, versus 39% who said there is a clear goal.

At the same time, the poll found that 47% of Americans think the decision to enforce a no-fly zone was a good idea, while 36% said it was a bad idea.

The U.S. and allied forces have been launching air and missile attacks on Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's military installments since March 19, one day after the U.N. Security Council approved a no-fly resolution over the country. Critics have argued that President Obama has not adequately explained what the U.S hopes to achieve by joining the assault, whether the goal is to protect civilians, or perhaps to oust Qaddafi.

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Deficit

Americans Rapidly Losing Confidence In GOP's Ability To Reduce The Deficit

Jon Terbush | March 17, 2011, 9:58AM

Tea Party activists in Washington, D.C.

The freshly installed Republican majority in the House of Representatives is getting a rude wakeup call as they transition from campaigning to governing.

Amid enormous voter discontent with the Democratic status quo and with concern running high over the economy last November, voters handed the keys over to Republicans, giving them a crack at dealing with government spending and the national deficit. Yet just two months into the new Congress, self-identified Republicans and Independents -- and particularly Tea Party sympathizers -- have already lost a great deal of faith in the GOP's ability to come up with a better approach to solving those problems, according to a newly released Pew poll of adults nationwide.

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Gay Marriage

Pew Poll: Americans Now Evenly Split On Legalizing Gay Marriage

Jon Terbush | March 3, 2011, 4:27PM

A new Pew poll shows adult Americans evenly split over whether gays and lesbians should be legally allowed to marry -- and there's a clear trend of Americans' views becoming increasingly favorable toward the ssue over the past few years.

That finding comes just weeks after the Obama administration announced it would no longer defend key elements of the Defense of Marriage Act -- the federal law that defines marriage as being between a man and a woman -- in court. And it also shows that Republicans may not have an upper hand in next years' presidential election if they try to thrust social issues to the forefront of the debate.

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Scott Walker

Pew Poll: Only Wealthiest Income Bracket Sides With Gov. Walker Over Unions

Jon Terbush | March 1, 2011, 3:29PM

In the debate over whether Wisconsin state workers should have the right to collectively bargain for better benefits, there is at least one group that sides with Gov. Scott Walker -- people wealthy enough that they probably don't need collective bargaining rights themselves.

That finding comes from a Pew poll released this week showing more Americans siding with the unions over Gov. Walker in the budget showdown that has deadlocked the Wisconsin legislature and sent thousands of protesters streaming into the state capitol. And strikingly, while Americans overall took the unions' side in the poll, the highest income demographic was the only one in which more people said they stood with Walker over the unions.

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2010 elections

OMG: One-Fourth Of Americans Used Cell Phones To Connect To 2010 Elections

Jon Terbush | December 23, 2010, 8:50AM

Americans can't seem go anywhere without talking about politics these days. Whether they were texting or tweeting, talking or typing, one in four Americans used a cell phone for some purpose related to the elections this year, according to a Pew Internet poll released today.

According to the survey, 26% of all Americans used a mobile phone to learn or communicate about the midterm elections. Of the entire U.S. population, 82% own a cell phone, according to the poll.

In general, the results reinforce what was already widely known -- that cell phones have become extremely versatile devices that are permeating more and more facets of daily life. But on a deeper level, the results show that mobile phones are emerging as a new frontier in politics, whether for reading the news, tracking campaigns or even donating to candidates.

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Gays in the military

Poll: Majority Of Americans Support Gays Serving Openly In Military, Tea Party Largely Opposed

Marc Kilstein | November 29, 2010, 4:54PM

DADT protestors in Washington, DC

According to a newly released Pew Research Center survey, 58% of Americans are in favor of allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the armed forces. Among those "who agree with the Tea Party," however, only 38% share the sentiment.

Over the last few years, public opinion on the issue has changed very little-- considering Pew's surveys on the question since 2005, "roughly 60% have consistently favored permitting homosexuals to serve openly in the military." Only 27% of the latest survey's respondents oppose allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve.

While a majority of self-identified Democrats (70%) and independents (62%) are in support of allowing gays to serve openly in the military, Republicans are divided-- the survey finds 40% in favor, while 44% are in opposition. Republican respondents split once more when those who "agree with the Tea Party" are considered distinctly from those "who disagree with the Tea Party." Only 38% of Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the movement support allowing gays to serve openly, while 48% are opposed. A majority (52%) of Republicans and Republican leaners who disagree with the Tea Party (or have no opinion of the movement) support allowing gays to openly serve in the armed forces.

Pew's findings echo a mid-November Quinnipiac poll that found 58% of respondents favoring a repeal of "Dont Ask, Don't Tell," a law prohibiting gay men and women from serving openly in the military. A more recent November 18 McClatchy-Marist survey suggested a narrower opinion gap: 47% of registered voters said DADT should be repealed, while 48% suggested the law should remain in place. In that survey, 30% of Tea Partiers favored repeal, while 66% opposed it.

Though the issue of gays in the military remains in the public eye, a recent Gallup survey suggests it is not a top priority for Americans-- only 32% of survey respondents indicated it was a "very important" issue to address during Congress's lame-duck session. The estate tax was found to be the issue of greatest concern to respondents, as 56% indicated it was a very important issue.

The margin of error for Pew's latest survey is ±3.5 percentage points.

Polling bias

Pew Study Finds Republican Bias In Landline-Only Polls

Marc Kilstein | November 23, 2010, 8:18AM

For years, people have contended that a right-leaning bias exists in public opinion polls that fail to consider cell phone users. This argument has some new backing-- a Pew Research Center report released Monday suggests that polls based on landline-only samples do, in fact, suffer from a Republican bias.

The report, which confirms findings from a mid-October study, suggests that support for Republican candidates is significantly higher when a survey's sample is composed only of landline telephone respondents, rather than both landline and cell phone users ("dual frame samples"). Pew calculates a bias among likely voters in 2010 that is about twice as large as the statistical skew evident in 2008 landline-only election surveys.

In the October study, Pew looked at four 2010 election polls and found that in three of them, "estimates from the landline samples alone produced slightly more support for Republican candidates and less support for Democratic candidates, resulting in differences of four to six points in the margin." In the latest study, it was determined that Republicans were favored in landline-only likely voter surveys by an average of 5.1 percentage points more than they were in polls with dual frame samples. In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain was on average 2.4 percentage points smaller in landline samples.

For a single-poll example of this trend, Pew's final pre-election poll found Republicans leading the congressional generic ballot question 51%-39% for the landline-only sample, whereas the lead narrowed to 48%-42% when cell phone interviews were also considered. Currently, the analysis notes, House Republicans lead by a seven-point margin.

While Americans are undeniably growing more reliant on cell phones, there are still those who have access to both a landline and cell phone ("dual users"). The report suggests that dual users who are reached by cell phone differ demographically and attitudinally from dual users reached on their landlines. As such, another bias emerges-- those reached by cell phone, who "are younger, more likely to be black or Hispanic, less likely to be college graduates, less conservative and more Democratic," gave the GOP a five-point advantage in the congressional generic ballot question, whereas Republicans led by 12-points among dual users reached by landline. Pollsters are thus faced with yet another bias to counter, as polling for the 2012 elections is already well underway.

For Pew's complete report, click here.