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PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With four national polls in the last week showing Texas Gov. Rick Perry ahead of the field in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, it looks more like the contention that former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney was a weak frontrunner has proved true. But as the primary season prepares to kick into high gear, how has Perry moved to the front so quickly? Numbers released on Tuesday from a Public Policy Polling (D) poll of crucial primary state South Carolina tell the story not just of Perry's new dominance of conservative voters, and Romney's weakness on the right, but of more concern for him -- they show a real vulnerability in the center as well.
The fact that Perry is now dominating in South Carolina, a conservative state, is probably not news to campaign watchers. The PPP survey shows him with 36 percent of the potential vote, followed by Romney with 16 and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) at 13, the second poll in five days to show Perry with a big lead. But the crosstabs show that Romney, the presumed "moderate" candidate (or at least more moderate), cannot even defend his own turf in the middle of the GOP electorate in a conservative state. He faces an implacable right wing of the party, which is fully in Perry's column, and moderate sect that is willing to support Perry despite his more strident views.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)As gay rights advocates have made gains over the last few years, the public seems to be moving in the same direction. Friday saw the release of a new poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) and Citizens for Equal Protection showing citizens deep in the middle of conservative America - in Nebraska - are solidly for non-discrimination protections for members of the gay, lesbian bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community, even if the current state laws are not. 73 percent of Nebraskans surveyed support protecting LGBT people from discrimination in employment, protections which currently don't exist there.
The survey comes as Public Policy Polling (D) has been polling a diversity of states on the question of gay marriage and civil unions. Those polls have shown that some version of recognition for same sex couples is popular: even in the most Republican state in the union, Utah, 60 percent supported either gay marriage or civil unions, a trend also reflected in a separate HRC polling of the state.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A plurality of Florida voters say they are less inclined to support a Republican presidential candidate in 2012 because of the way their freshman GOP governor has acted since taking office, according to a PPP poll to be released Friday morning.
In the survey, 40% of registered voters said Gov. Rick Scott's actions have made them less inclined to back the GOP presidential nominee next year, versus 26% who said his actions had made it more likely they'd vote Republican in 2012. An additional 34% said Scott has had no impact on whether or not they'll support a Republican candidate.
A key finding within those results is that almost one in five (18%) of respondents who said they disapproved of President Obama's job performance said they were still shying away from supporting a Republican alternative because of their dissatisfaction with Scott. Further, 45% of all independent voters said they were less inclined to vote for the GOP nominee after seeing Scott's policies in action, versus only 18% who said Scott had made them more keen to vote against Obama next year.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With his approval rating settling back to Earth now that the bin Laden bump has all but evaporated, President Obama's leads over a number of potential Republican challengers have narrowed such that he now leads his closest competitor, Mitt Romney, by just two points, according to a PPP poll released Wednesday.
In the survey, registered voters gave Obama a slim 47% to 45% edge over the former Massachusetts governor. That's a closer contest than last month when Obama led Romney 47% to 42%. It's also smallest gap separating the two candidates in PPP's surveys since last November, when Obama led 47% to 46%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin continued their run at the top of GOP primary field nationally, according to a new PPP poll of registered voters released Thursday. But now that some other big-name Republicans have taken themselves out of the contest, a few candidates with lower profiles have suddenly -- and significantly -- closed the gap between themselves and the frontrunners.
In the poll, Palin and Romney tied for the lead at 16%. However, Tim Pawlenty (13%) and Herman Cain (12%) both polled within the survey's 4.1% margin of error.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)When several newly minted Republican governors began pushing through broad, unpopular legislation this year, they may have unintentionally aided President Obama's reelection odds.
Emboldened by their party's midterm election day romp, freshman GOP governors in a few crucial swing states immediately began to advance radical legislation upon taking office. But as the cost of those unpopular legislative agendas has now become clear in the form of free-falling approval ratings and incredible buyer's remorse, polls have shown that that same voter discontent could translate into a big 2012 boost for President Obama.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Newt Gingrich's terrible, horrible, no good very bad campaign roll out just got a little bit worse.
According to a PPP poll released Thursday, Gingrich's own party has rapidly turned against on the former House speaker, as a plurality now say they have an unfavorable opinion of him.
In the poll, 38% of Republican voters said they view Gingrich favorably, versus 45% who view him unfavorably. That's a huge 27 point swing from last month when 52% viewed him favorably, and 32% viewed him unfavorably.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Since signing a bill earlier this year to strip public unions of most of their collective bargaining rights, Ohio Gov. John Kasich's (R) approval rating has plummeted, bottoming out at a new low in a PPP poll released Wednesday. As if that weren't bad enough, the poll also found Kasich losing a theoretical do-over election -- by an enormous 25-point margin.
Kasich narrowly defeated incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) last November, and almost immediately set his sights on rolling back public sector collective bargaining rights through a bill known as S.B. 5. That drive was deeply unpopular with his constituents, prompting large protests and sending the governor's approval rating into a nosedive.
In the latest poll, only 33% of registered voters said they approve of Kasich's job performance, compared to 56% who said the disapprove of it. That result ties Kasich with Florida's Rick Scott (R) as the most unpopular of the 38 governors PPP has surveyed.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Last month, Herman Cain was a little-known radio talk show host who struggled to pick up more than a few percentage points in polls of the 2012 Republican presidential primary race. But two new polls released this week show Cain vaulting from the back of the pack into the top-tier of candidates.
Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin snagged the top two slots in a national Gallup poll released Thursday morning, taking over the lead from Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump, who led in Gallup's April poll but who have since announced that they will not run in 2012. But it was Cain who gained the most ground, jumping from less than one percent last month to 8% now, good enough for fifth place.
That huge jump placed Cain just one point behind Newt Gingrich (9%), and only two back of Ron Paul (10%), both of whom are much more widely known around the country. That jump also threw Cain ahead of a slew of other candidates who suffer from chronically low name recognition and who have yet to crack the top-tier, like Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-WA)? A new PPP poll out Tuesday suggests voters in Washington state are largely unreceptive to the thought of the Ohio congressman moving west and running for office in their state.
In the poll, 39% of registered voters said Kucinich should not run for Congress from a new district that will be drawn next year as a result of last year's census reapportionment, while 12% said he should run. A bright spot fo Kucinich though, should he move to Washington and decide to run, is that a 48% plurality of voters are still undecided.
Also, while a 53% majority of voters there don't know Kucinich well enough to form an opinion of him, a greater percentage of voters don't like him (28%) than the percentage who do like him (19%.)
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The death of Osama bin Laden gave a sizable boost to President Obama's approval ratings over the past week and a half. However, a PPP poll released on Wednesday finds that despite that bin Laden bump, Obama has not increased his leads over the big-name Republicans who may challenge him in next year's election.
Compared to one month ago, the latest survey did not show Obama pulling away from several prominent GOP candidates, though he did maintain his already comfortable leads over each of them.
In the poll, Obama beat each of the six Republicans tested against him, winning each contest by at least a five-point spread.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Following the killing of Osama bin Laden, President Obama's approval rating received an expected bump. Yet while his overall approval rating ticked up, his marks when it comes to the economy actually fell at the same time, dropping to a record-low in the latest NBC survey released this week.
That finding underscores the old political maxim that, "it's the economy, stupid," as it shows that Obama's overall presidency is still weighed down by the sluggish economy even while enjoying a major national security success.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Donald Trump's brief run as the "frontrunner" in the Republican primary is over, according to a PPP poll released on Tuesday.
One month ago, a handful of surveys showed Trump trouncing the GOP field, leading all comers by as much as a nine-point margin. But now, after a month of bruising press coverage, the latest PPP poll shows that Trump's support has quickly dried up, as he's dropped back to a tie for fifth place.
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) is still a very popular politician in Arizona despite his false claim that abortions make up 90% of Planned Parenthood's services. Actually, that's not intended to be a factual statement.
In reality, Kyl's approval rating has gotten markedly worse since January, according to a PPP poll released on Friday, perhaps not coincidentally because of the false claim he made on the Senate floor last month, and the negative press attention it generated.
In the same PPP poll that showed Kyl's approval rating slipping, a majority of Arizonans said they opposed cutting funding for Planned Parenthood. Further, while Republicans' opinion of Kyl hasn't changed much since January, large numbers of Democrats and independents -- who both strongly opposed cutting funding for Planned Parenthood, according to the survey -- have soured on Kyl over the same period.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)According to a PPP poll released Friday, only one-third of Arizona's registered voters approve of Sen. John McCain's (R) job performance, thus earning McCain the ignoble distinction of the nation's third least popular Senator based on PPP's data.
In the poll, 34% of voters said they approve of McCain's job performance, compared to 53% who disapprove.
Only Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) -- the erstwhile Democrat who has almost completely alienated his former party -- and Sen. John Ensign -- who stepped down this week after a protracted sex scandal -- have polled worse in PPP surveys in the past year. In March, PPP found that just 29% of Connecticut voters approved of Lieberman's job performance, while 58% disapproved. Just 29% of Nevadans gave Ensign positive marks in an April PPP poll, while 55% said the opposite.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Following the release of President Obama's long-form birth certificate -- a document skeptics claimed did not exist because Obama was supposedly born in a foreign country -- the percentage of Americans who doubt Obama's citizenship has plummeted, according to two new polls.
In a Washington Post/ABC News poll released Thursday, only 10% of Americans said Obama was born in a foreign country. That's exactly half the percent who said the same last year.
And even among those who doubted Obama's citizenship, far fewer are quite so confident in that stance now that Obama's birth certificate has been released. Last year, nine percent of respondents said there was "solid evidence" to prove that Obama was born elsewhere. That number dropped to just one percent in the latest poll.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With the release of President Obama's long form birth certificate on Wednesday, many are wondering why the White House decided to even bother wading into the birther debate long after it had been proven to be a red herring.
One reason, as noted by Obama in a press conference Tuesday morning, is that while the birther controversy is largely considered a fringe issue, it's actually mainstream within Republican ranks, according to several recent polls.
TPM SLIDESHOW: There's The Birth Certificate: TPM's Best Of The Birthers
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A Fox News host and an NBC reality television star are tied as the top choices for the Republican presidential nomination in West Virginia, according to a PPP poll of registered voters released on Tuesday.
In the survey, Trump and Huckabee easily led the rest of the GOP field at 24% each. Sarah Palin placed third with 13%, followed by Mitt Romney (11%) and Newt Gingrich (9%).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)As Obama's approval rating has slipped in the past few months, so too have his leads over potential 2012 challengers.
In a McClatchy-Marist poll released on Wednesday, Obama posted a one-point lead over Mitt Romney, down from a robust 13-point edge just three months ago. Obama still notched comfortable leads on Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, though both Republicans have gained some ground since January as well.
That indicates that while Obama enjoyed a brief honeymoon to start 2011, the bump has quickly evaporated, and his reelection prospects remain far from certain.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Mike Huckabee continues to own the entire GOP field in early polls of the Iowa caucus, with a PPP poll of registered voters released on Tuesday showing the former Arkansas governor winning several hypothetical ballots by big margins.
And interestingly, Mitt Romney emerged as the second choice for Iowa Republicans in the poll, even though nearly two-thirds of respondents said they would not consider voting for a candidate who supported a state-level universal health care law, which is precisely what Romney did as governor of Massachusetts.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Nearly half of usual Republican primary voters in Iowa think President Obama was not born in the United States, while barely one-quarter believe he was, according to a PPP poll released on Tuesday.
In the poll, 48% of registered Republican voters said Obama was not born in the U.S., while 26% said he was. Additionally, 26% said they were unsure.
That percentage is actually slightly better than the national average for typical Republican primary voters, a majority of whom believe Obama was born outside the U.S. In February, a PPP poll found that 51% of registered Republican voters said Obama was not born in the U.S., compared to 28% who said he was, and 21% who were unsure.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new PPP poll released on Friday shows Donald Trump leading the Republican presidential primary race by much more than a hair.
In fact, the poll shows the brash real estate tycoon turned reality TV show host posting a large nine-point lead on the nearest competition. It's the latest in a flurry of recent surveys to show the Donald running strong in the GOP field, but it's the first to show him all alone at the front of the pack.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama comfortably led a slate of potential Republican challengers in a PPP poll released Thursday, even though a slim plurality of voters disapproved of his job performance.
That's likely because while voters weren't too thrilled with Obama, they were even less excited about his potential challengers. Every Republican tested in the poll posted a net negative favorability rating, the most extreme example being Sarah Palin, whom 61% of respondents viewed unfavorably.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Are Republican voters seriously considering hiring Donald Trump to run for the White House?
Trump has the blogosphere atwitter over the past few weeks with his sudden sprint to the front of surveys of the 2012 Republican presidential primary race, matching -- or in some cases even beating -- big-name GOPers like Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney. A CNN poll released this week showed Trump tied for first place with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. But a closer look at the candidates reveals that Trump's high support may not be so much a sign of his strength, but of a sign of the overall field's weakness.
Only a few months removed from a landslide election that threw control of the House of Representatives back to Republicans, a plurality of registered voters now say the new GOP majority is doing a worse job than Democrats did when they controlled the lower chamber of Congress.
In a PPP poll released Tuesday, 43% of voters said Republicans are doing a worse job running the House than Democrats did before being ousted in last year's midterms. Meanwhile, 36% said Republicans were doing a better job than their counterparts, and an additional 19% said things are about the same.
The poll also found that a plurality of voters (48%) now say the Republican party is "extremist," while 40% say the party is mainstream. The numbers were almost flipped on the Democratic side, with 46% viewing the party as mainstream, and 39% viewing it as extremist.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Newt Gingrich hasn't officially thrown his hat into the 2012 race, but if he were to get in, and indeed win the Republican presidential nomination, he wouldn't get much of a home state advantage in a general election against President Obama, according to a new PPP poll.
In that poll of registered voters, Obama topped Gingrich 46%-45% in a head-to-head matchup in Georgia, the state Gingrich represented for two decades in the House. Further, 50% said they didn't think Gingrich should run for president in the first place, while only 31% said he should.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)New Hampshire Republicans prefer Donald Trump, the eccentric real estate tycoon and reality television host, over all but one other candidate for the party's presidential nomination, according to a new PPP poll of registered voters.
Only Mitt Romney topped Trump in the poll, doing so by a six-point margin. However, that margin is far less than the leads Romney posted in previous polls that did not include Trump, polls in which Romney bested the next closest contender by as much as 30 points.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In December, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) looked shaky heading into her 2012 reelection bid. One poll found her barely leading a slate of potential Republican challengers. But now, Stabenow's poll numbers have rebounded: a new PPP poll shows her leading her potential rivals by double-digits.
That turnaround comes at the same time that Michigan's new Republican Governor, Rick Snyder, has seen his approval rating slide, after his push for a controversial proposal that would give him the authority to appoint emergency managers in struggling cities, a proposal one supporter likened to "financial martial law."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Last year's midterms elections swept incumbents from office nationwide, as voters turned to newcomers -- often Republican newcomers -- for change.
But just months after election day, three new Midwestern governors -- Wisconsin's Scott Walker (R), Ohio's John Kasich (R), and Michigan's Rick Snyder (R) -- have seen their approval ratings fall to the point that polls show them losing hypothetical do-over elections with the candidates they beat last year.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Only once since 1944 has Ohio voted for a losing presidential candidate, and if the 2012 election were held today, President Obama would be breathing easy, as a new PPP poll of registered voters shows him building on his lead over a slate of potential Republican challengers.
On Wednesday, PPP released poll results showing that as voters rapidly soured on Republican Gov. John Kasich -- who has pushed to strip unions of their collective bargaining rights -- they were simultaneously sounding much more positive about reelecting Sen. Sherrod Brown. Now, it appears that same Democratic bump has buoyed Obama's reelection odds as well.
In December, Obama led four Republican challengers by between one and seven points; he now leads them all by at least six.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Scott Walker's approval rating may be in the dumps with his constituents, but by taking on public employee unions, he's made himself quite popular with Republicans nationwide.
In fact, a new PPP poll of registered voters finds that Republicans actually like Walker better than the big-name GOPers who are considering presidential bids. That shows that Walker, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, has become a Republican favorite for his tough budget talk and his willingness to butt heads with unions. But it also underscores how tepid Republicans are toward their current slate of presidential aspirants, and how a fresh conservative face could shake up the GOP primary next year.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama comfortably leads a slate of potential 2012 Republican challengers, not because he is particularly strong, but because his potential challengers are so weak, according to a new PPP poll of registered voters nationwide.
Obama posted a fairly middling approval rating in the poll, with both 47% of respondents approving of his job performance, and 47% disapproving. Yet each of the GOP candidates tested against him fared much worse, with none of them earning a net positive favorability rating.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Just two months ago, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) looked vulnerable to defeat heading into 2012. But now, amid a state-level showdown over union rights that has energized voters and sent Republican Gov. John Kasich's approval rating into a tailspin, a new PPP poll of registered voters finds Brown suddenly dominating a slate of potential Republican challengers.
In December, polls showed Brown in a precarious position, barely leading relatively unknown Republicans in hypothetical 2012 contests. But in the latest survey, Brown has suddenly shot ahead of his GOP rivals, such that he now leads each of them by double-digit margins; his lead over one challenger exploded from a miniscule 2 points in December to 19 in the latest poll.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Of all the undeclared candidates presumed to be running for the Republican presidential nomination, four names continue to cluster at the top of the field: Huckabee, Palin, Romney, and Gingrich.
That trend continued Tuesday with the release of a new PPP poll of registered Republican voters that shows those four candidates still bunched closely at the front of the pack. And while there has been some shifting of percentages, there is no significant movement to show anyone considerably pulling ahead or slipping behind.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Maine Republicans aren't so keen on nominating Sen Olympia Snowe (R) for another reelection bid. But if Snowe does get dumped by her own party in a primary election, a PPP poll of registered voters shows that she could still cruise to reelection should she run as an Independent.
Earlier this week, PPP released a poll showing that only one quarter of Republicans in Snowe's home state think she should be considered a Republican, while a third said she was better described as a Democrat. Further, almost six in ten said they would probably vote for a more conservative candidate should one challenge Snowe in a primary.
Yet as the new release shows, Snowe garners plenty of support from Democratic voters, and could return to the Senate even if her own party dumps her in a primary next year.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In 2008, President Obama became the first Democrat to carry the Virginia since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1964. And according to a new PPP poll of registered voters in Virginia, he could easily claim the state again in 2012 against the biggest names the GOP has to offer.
In the poll, Obama led Mitt Romney 48% to 42%, and beat Mike Huckabee 51% to 43%. Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich each trailed by double-digits, with Gingrich lagging 51% to 39%, while Palin trailed 54% to 35%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With Virginia Sen. Jim Webb (D) retiring at the end of his term, the race to replace him in 2012 looks like a total toss up, according to a new PPP poll.
In the poll, the strongest potential candidate from each party -- former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine and former Republican Sen. George Allen -- topped every challenger thrown against them. Yet in a head-to-head match-up, Kaine and Allen tied at 47% apiece.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R) is rapidly losing support from his constituents as he continues to push budget proposals that would cut collective bargaining rights and benefits for most of the states public employee unions, according to new data from a PPP poll, a poll whose results TPM first reported on Monday. His support has slipped so much that, after just two months in office, voters are now evenly divided over whether he should be recalled.
A majority of Wisconsin voters now disapprove of Walker's job performance, a reversal from the positive approval rating he enjoyed immediately after election day. Further, most voters support collective bargaining rights for the state's public employee unions, and oppose Walker's proposal to cut those same rights.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Donald Trump could conceivably fire Obama.
That's the weak position Obama finds himself in heading into the 2012 election, according to a Newsweek/Daily Beast poll of likely voters released today that shows the President tied or barely ahead of his potential GOP challengers to his reelection bid.
Obama and Mike Huckabee are tied at 46% apiece in the poll, while Mitt Romney trailed Obama by a slim two-point margin, 49% to 47%. And yes, eccentric real estate tycoon and reality TV host Donald Trump also trailed Obama by just two points, 43% to 41%. That's well within the poll's 3.5% margin of error.
Obama did, however, hold a decent edge on Sarah Palin, leading her 51 to 40%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
