Health Care

The Final Four: Who's Standing In Reid's Way, And Can They Be Won Over?

Brian Beutler | November 24, 2009, 4:29PM

From left to right Top: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) Bottom: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Center: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Toward the end of the summer, when it was unclear whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would include a public option in his health care bill, progressives let it be known that he would not be forgiven if he allowed a handful of nameless Democrats silently filibuster the provision. In the end, this pressure, and various other factors, ultimately convinced Reid to include the opt out public option in the legislation, and the opponents have had to come forward. Their names won't surprise students of Democratic politics: Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Ben Nelson (D-NE), and Mary Landrieu (D-LA).

These conservative Democrats are known for taking stances at odds with the party on key issues, but in this health care debate they are ultimately driven by very different motives. They have suddenly become the targets of every major reform organization in the country, and understanding what makes them tick will be key to the advocates who are now trying to change their minds.

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Health Care

Sebelius Unveils State By State Analysis Of Impact Of Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | November 23, 2009, 12:55PM

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius today unveiled state-by-state analyses of the beneficial impacts of health care reform. Using the Senate bill, the report underlines, among other things, the number of working and middle class people who would receive federal assistance, and the extent to which the legislation would reduce the number of uninsured in that state.

So, to pick three states totally at random, if you wanted to know what the goodies for Nebraska, Arkansas, and Louisiana, would be, you can just click.

And, in case you're wondering, the reports do not address the state-by-state impact of the public option.

Health Care

Poll: Health Care Bill Could Hurt Dems -- And Not Passing It Would Be Worse

Eric Kleefeld | November 23, 2009, 12:26PM

United States Capitol

A new national survey from Public Policy Polling (D) finds that health care has put the Democrats in a tricky situation -- passing a bill with a public option doesn't offer a clear political benefit, but not passing anything would cause an even greater problem.

The Democrats lead on an initial generic Congressional ballot by 46%-38%. If they pass a health care with a public option, the gap becomes 46%-41%. If they don't pass a health care bill at all, though, it becomes a 40%-40% tie -- reminiscent of the loss in Democratic support in 1994, after they failed to pass a health care bill.

"Clearly Democrats need to pass a health care bill if they want to do well at the polls next year," said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. "But they don't need to take an all or nothing approach. Allowing the status quo to remain rather than accepting a bill without a public option would be a poor decision politically."

The poll was conducted from November 13th to November 15th, before this past weekend's vote in the Senate to proceed with debate on the health care bill. The margin of error is ±3%.

Harry Reid

What Did We Learn From Saturday's Health Care Vote

Brian Beutler | November 23, 2009, 11:50AM

Senators Nelson (D-NE) and Lieberman (I-CT)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid got his 60 on Saturday, and when the Senate returns from Thanksgiving recess next week, they'll be debating and amending a major piece of health care legislation. However, the vote, and its aftermath exposed or clarified the cleavages within the Democratic party that will have to be bridged if Reid hopes to keep his caucus in line on the next cloture motion--to end a Republican filibuster and hold a simple majority vote on reform.

If you thought the opt-out compromise was a silver bullet for the public option, you may have gotten a bit ahead of yourself. It held up for a while, and could still survive, but that's going to require some interesting gymnastics from Democratic leaders. Leading up to Saturday's vote, and in its immediate aftermath, conservative Democrats entrenched their opposition to the public option in the Senate bill. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) repeated his threat to support a health care filibuster if it includes a public option of any kind, and, despite her earlier support for the provision, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) took to the Senate floor Saturday and announced, "I'm promising my colleagues that I'm prepared to vote against moving to the next stage of consideration as long as a government-run public option is included." That gives her a bit more wiggle room than Lieberman's left himself, and Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) have a bit more still, but that makes 60 for the opt out a tough climb. On the other side of the caucus, though, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Roland Burris (D-IL) have inched closer to threatening to block a health care bill from the left if the public option is weakened further. If reform is to pass, one side of the caucus will have to hold its collective nose and vote for something they don't like.

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Chuck Schumer

Spokesman: Schumer Open To Public Option Negotiations, But They Haven't Started

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 9:56PM

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

In light of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's statement tonight--that he welcomes negotiations on a public option compromise--Sen. Chuck Schumer's spokesman Brian Fallon emails a statement to TPMDC. He says discussions with centrists, such as they are, are in the earliest stages.

"Leading up to tonight's vote, some senators expressed a desire to discuss the public option currently in the Senate bill. Of course, Senator Schumer did not rule that out. But no such talks have yet taken place, and there is not any compromise at hand beyond what Leader Reid has already inserted into the bill. Senator Schumer remains a strong proponent of the opt-out, level playing field public option."

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) told TPMDC earlier today that Schumer had been tasked as the point man in negotiations between senators who support a public option, and those who prefer a "trigger" compromise.

This statement seems to suggests that those discussions are in their infancy, whatever Schumer's role in them is.

Barack Obama

Lieberman Repeats Claim That Public Option Not Part Of 2008 Presidential Campaign

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 9:15PM

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) raised hackles among liberals earlier this week when he claimed that the public option wasn't a part of the 2008 presidential campaign. He repeated that claim to reporters tonight, though acknowledged, when pressed, that then-candidate Barack Obama did in fact include a public option in his campaign health care proposal.

"This is a kindof 11th hour addition to a debate that's gone on for decades," Lieberman told reporters tonight. "Nobody's ever talked about a public option before. Not even in the presidential campaign last year."

I asked in response, "How do you reconcile your contention that the public option wasn't part of the presidential campaign given that all three of the [leading Democratic] candidates had something along the lines of the public option in their white papers?'

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Harry Reid

Reid: 'I Welcome Schumer, Landrieu, And Carper, As They Work On Public Option Compromise'

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 8:51PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

After a successful vote to begin debate on a landmark health care bill. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid addressed the news, first reported by TPMDC, that conservative Democrats are working with public option supporter Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on a compromise.

"I welcome Sen. Schumer, Landrieu and Carper--Landrieu said that they're working together on a public option that's acceptable to [all parties]."

Asked by TPMDC about Schumer's role in the negotiations, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) applauded his colleague. "Senator Schumer, when he's not hunting, works with a lot of different individuals on a lot of different points," Nelson said. "He was the one that came up with the idea of opting out--I don't think it sold very well, but he has the ability to be very pragmatic about a lot of these issues, and that makes him very important in the process."

Public option stalwart Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) said he hopes that triggers aren't ultimately affixed to the public option, but isn't alarmed that Reid isn't tamping down on the negotiations.

"That's been Harry from the very beginning. He's always said that, and he's always meant it," Rockefeller said.

Late update: Schumer spokesman Brian Fallon emails a statement to TPMDC. He says discussions with centrists, such as they are, are in their earliest stages. "Leading up to tonight's vote, some senators expressed a desire to discuss the public option currently in the Senate bill. Of course, Senator Schumer did not rule that out. But no such talks have yet taken place, and there is not any compromise at hand beyond what Leader Reid has already inserted into the bill. Senator Schumer remains a strong proponent of the opt-out, level playing field public option."

Health Care

Senate Agrees To Debate Health Care Bill

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 8:08PM

Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL)

On a perfectly partisan, 60-39 vote, the Senate agreed tonight to debate and amend a far-reaching health care bill. That debate will get started in earnest after Congress returns from next week's Thanksgiving recess. Democrats and Republicans expect to offer hundreds of amendments (each of which will be held to a 60 vote threshold) and debate for several weeks before holding yet another procedural supermajority vote--to end debate. If that gets 60 votes, then there will be an up-or-down vote on passage of the bill.

If the bill passes it will likely undergo yet more changes in conference with House negotiators. The "conference report" that emerges from that process can't be amended, but can be filibustered in the Senate, so will likely require 60 votes for passage. Only after both chambers have passed the conference report can the bill be sent to President Obama for a signature.

Health Care

Spokesman: Schumer's Not Initiating Any Trigger Negotiations

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 4:34PM

Sen. Chuck Schumer's spokesman Brian Fallon says his boss stands foursquare behind the opt out public option, and any suggestion that he's been involved in negotiations regarding a triggered public option are false:

"Since Leader Reid announced the opt-out public option would be included in the Senate bill, Senator Schumer has not approached anyone about compromises," Fallon said in a statement to TPMDC. "He is fully behind the level playing field opt-out, which he himself helped advance."

That's a direct contradiction to the assertion in this post, by a Democratic aide, that Schumer recently approached Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) about a public option compromise. But it doesn't address Landrieu's contention, that Schumer is a point man in behind the scenes negotiations regarding a potential trigger compromise.

We'll try to get more clarification on that last point.

Chuck Schumer

Dem Aide: Schumer Dealmaking On Public Option "Inappropriate"

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 3:28PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

The plot thickens!

A Senate Democratic aide tells me that folks aren't too happy with the news that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is negotiating a public option "trigger compromise with members of the caucus.

"He went on his own to talk to Landrieu about the trigger option," the aide says. "That's rather unseemly, especially for Schumer to have reached out to Landrieu before we had the vote. It's very inappropriate."

Obviously there are plenty of reasons for plenty of people to say they're upset about this. But the fact that Schumer began these discussions before today's vote does seem notable, given that Harry Reid was supposed to be negotiating for the votes.

Landrieu and her fellow conservative Democrats have been very adamant today that the public option as it is will earn this health care bill a filibuster. Schumer is apparently involved in discussions with them, and other members, to reach a compromise.

Blanche Lincoln

Lincoln: "I'll Filibuster A Public Option Bill"

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 3:00PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Conservative Democrats are making it very clear that they'll switch their vote and kill the bill down the line if the public option doesn't get stripped out of it.

"Let me be perfectly clear," Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) said on the floor of the Senate. "I am opposed to a new government administered health care plan as a part of comprehensive health insurance reform, and I will not vote in favor of the proposal that has been introduced by Leader Reid as it is written.... I've already alerted the Leader and I'm promising my colleagues that I'm prepared to vote against moving to the next stage of consideration as long as a government-run public option is included."

That's pretty compatible with what Mary Landrieu told reporters earlier this afternoon.

"I believe it's going to be very clear at some point very soon that there are not 60 votes for the current provision in the bill, and that the leader and the leadership are going to have to make a decision and I trust that they will figure out how to do that," Landrieu said.

Health Care

Landrieu To Reid: No Triggers, No Bill--Negotiating Compromise With Schumer

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 1:41PM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

After announcing her intent to support a health care debate this afternoon, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) told reporters she thinks Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will soon have to choose between a triggered public option and no health care bill. She also says Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY)--the third-ranking Democrat in the Senate one of its most fierce and vocal public option advocates--has been tasked as a point man on the issue.

"I believe it's going to be very clear at some point very soon that there are not 60 votes for the current provision in the bill, and that the leader and the leadership are going to have to make a decision and I trust that they will figure out how to do that," Landrieu told reporters.

Landrieu has been in negotiations with a number of centrist senators about a compromise that would eliminate the public option, except in states where insurance remains unaffordable. Interestingly, though, Schumer is playing a big role in that process.

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Health Care

Senate Debates Historic Health Care Bill

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 10:14AM

Sen. McConnell (R-KY) Sen. Reid (D-NV)

We'll be following today's proceedings live from the U.S. Capitol, gavel-to-gavel. Check in all day for breaking updates.

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Health Care

Obama Administration: We (Heart) Senate Health Care Bill

Christina Bellantoni | November 20, 2009, 5:59PM

Pres. Barack Obama and Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

The White House has released a statement of administration policy about the Senate health care bill that will receive its first test vote tomorrow.

If the headline above sounds familiar, so does the statement. They released a very similar one before the House health care vote earlier this month.

"They have forged a strong consensus that represents an historic step forward," the administration said of both the House and Senate bills.

Each statement talks about the bill being "the product of unprecedented cooperation and countless hours of hard work by Members of the Senate who share the President's conviction that the Nation cannot wait another year for health insurance reform."

The biggest difference - the statement on the House talked about its strong public option.

The Senate statement lauds that the bill "includes important health care delivery system and insurance reforms and cost-containment initiatives, and it would extend the solvency of Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund."

Statement in full after the jump.

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Ben Nelson

Tomorrow's Health Care Vote: A Cheat Sheet

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 5:40PM

Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)

With Ben Nelson now in the "yes" column, there are now two known Democratic hold outs on tomorrow's health care vote: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR).

Landrieu told reporters today that she'll likely make an announcement tomorrow morning. Lincoln, on the other hand, has been unreachable, and it's unclear if, or when, she'll announce her intent publicly before the vote, which will come at 8 p.m. tomorrow night.

It's probably a safe guess that, if at the end of the day, there's something standing between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and 60 votes on the motion to debate to his bill, he won't hold the vote. As unlikely as that is, here are the potential hangups.

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Chuck Schumer

Is Chuck Schumer Taking Temperature On Carper's Public Option Compromise?

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 5:15PM

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

I'd missed this before, but check out what Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) told reporters last night about conservative Democrats' push for something like a public option trigger mechanism.

"Senator Carper has been trying to help forge a compromise and I'm very proud of his efforts, and he's still at work, I understand, on that, so is Senator Schumer. They've been trying to negotiate this compromise among the various factions for a while and I think actually we're getting closer. We're not there yet. But we're a lot closer than we were two months ago, where it was just a logjam."

Schumer's name, in this context, is interesting. It's possible that she simply means Schumer is talking to all parties, trying to get everybody on the same public option page as he has been for months. But it certainly sounds like she's saying he's taking the caucus' temperature on this Carper compromise, which I outlined here.

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Blanche Lincoln

Reid Knows How Lincoln Will Vote On Early Health Care Test Vote

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 11:30AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

What will Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) do tomorrow? Perhaps Harry Reid knows.

"She's told Senator Reid," Sen. Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) told reporters after a Friday press conference. "You will have to ask Senator Reid."

Reid has zero margin for error tomorrow, and it's difficult to imagine he would move forward if he knew Lincoln planned to vote "no." A very telling sign in.

Of all the health care reform fence-sitters in the Democratic party, Lincoln is the only one that faces re-election next year, and her prospects don't look particularly good. As a result, pinning down her intentions has been particularly difficult. But in a coup, Congress Daily caught up with Lincoln yesterday, and she hinted that she may be on board herself.

"Without a doubt [Reid] has always stressed ... that you gotta believe in a little bit of the process," Lincoln said. "That's what we're here for. I mean, certainly knowing that not all 100 of us are going to agree on anything, you gotta be able to depend a little bit on the process. It gives you an opportunity to make the case and move things forward."

Lincoln stressed, of course, that she has to finish reading the bill before making up her mind, but said she'd announce her intentions publicly before the vote.

Health Care

Though Still Undecided, Landrieu Looks Ahead To Health Care Debate

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 9:53AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) spoke to reporters last night about her intentions going forward on health care reform. I wasn't present, but a colleague passes along the audio. The short version is, Landrieu is still uncommitted on tomorrow's test vote on the motion to proceed, but she's looking forward to changing the bill (particularly the public option) on the floor, indicating she doesn't imagine the bill will falter at this stage.

"I have leverage now, I'm using it to the best of my ability, I'm going to use it on the Senate floor," Landrieu said. "I have people voting for me who are liberal Democrats, independents, conservative Democrats, and some moderate Republicans. I understand what my base is. My base is very broad."

And in that spirit, Landrieu says that even if her vote is there tomorrow, it won't necessarily be there down the line.

"The other thing that remains a concern to me is the shape of this public option," she says. "We have made a lot of progress taking it from a robust, government run [plan] to now something that is more mainstream, more narrow, more private sector oriented, I'd like to take it a step or two even further. So that will be debated on the floor. And if it's not done that way, maybe my vote's not there at the end."

Health Care

Snowe, Carper In Discussions About Trigger-Like Amendment

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 4:48PM

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)

This afternoon, I asked Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) whether she'd been looped in on an idea, floated recently by Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE), to tweak her proposal to affix a public option to a trigger mechanism. Indeed she and Carper have discussed his plan, but she remains pessimistic that it'll ever be adopted.

"Tom and I have been working on it, we've had discussions and so on, but, you know, we haven't got down in concrete terms, and he'd like to have my affordability language and so on," Snowe said. "But nevertheless it's still going to require 60 votes so I don't know when that would happen, and frankly I would have preferred that to happen at the outset of this process, rather than going through this convoluted procedural gymnastics."

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Ben Nelson

Will Concessions, And A Trim CBO Score, Appease Conservative Democrats On Health Care?

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 11:37AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Conservative Democrats couldn't have asked for better top-line numbers from the CBO on Senate health care legislation. Low total cost, big long-term deficit reductions, millions insured, and a public option that insures perhaps one percent of the population. But is that enough to actually cool their heartburn?

Well, yes and no.

"Listen, anytime you add more to deficit reduction, you have to say that it's a move in the right direction," Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) told reporters yesterday. "So there's no doubt...that clearly would be one [area of improvement]--but again you have to have a lot of faith and trust in the scoring system."

Nelson cautioned that the CBO numbers released yesterday are preliminary, and subject to some uncertainty, but basically applauded the bill for being fiscally responsible.

But is that what's really driving the moderates' skepticism?

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Health Care

Can States Opt Out Of The Public Option Immediately?

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 9:22AM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid first announced that he'd chosen to include a public option with an opt-out provision in his health care bill, he suggested that states would be required to offer the government insurance plan for a year before opting out. Well, it appears as if he's dropped that requirement.

In general, the bill reads, "A State may elect to prohibit Exchanges in such State from offering a community health insurance option if such State enacts a law to provide for such prohibition." Separately, if a state opts out, they can also opt back in, if they repeal the law they used to opt out. But one of the key selling points of the opt out provision to liberals is that states wouldn't be able to opt out until after the public option became somewhat entrenched. We're looking for more guidance on this, but it seems as if that entrenchment period is gone.

Health Care

No Public Option Or Mandates Until 2014 Under Senate Bill, But There Are Some Early Goodies

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 9:07AM

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) with Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

For liberals, one of the most frustrating aspects of health care reform is that the most tangible goodies (the exchanges, and, within the exchanges, the public option) won't be available to the public for years. In the House bill, the main structural changes to the health care system--including the exchanges/public option, mandates, taxes, and the Medicaid expansion--go into effect in 2013. Under the Senate bill, they take until 2014.

But there are some aspects of the bill that would take effect right away if the bill became law as is. For instance, the Senate bill would immediately ban insurance companies from imposing annual and lifetime caps on benefits, and would make it illegal for them to cancel people's policies (a practice called rescission) except in cases of fraud.

There's more, too, and we'll bring you a fuller set of details later today.

Abortion

National Right to Life Committee: Shame On Reid

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 1:09AM

Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

The National Right to Life Committee blasts the Senate health care bill for allowing people who receive federal premium assistance to purchase insurance that covers abortion.

"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nv.) has rejected the bipartisan Stupak-Pitts Amendment and has substituted completely unacceptable language that would result in coverage of abortion on demand in two big new federal government programs," reads a statement from NRLC director Douglas Johnson. "Reid seeks to cover elective abortions in two big new federal health programs, but tries to conceal that unpopular reality with layers of contrived definitions and hollow bookkeeping requirements."

The key: "the bill creates new tax-supported subsidies to purchase private health plans that will cover abortion on demand."

The Stupak amendment to the House bill would prevent anybody who receives such subsidies from buying insurance that covers abortion, except in rare instances.

You can read the entire statement below the fold.

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CBO

CBO Says Higher Premiums Under Senate Public Option, 'Opt-Out' Clause Would Impact One-Third Of Consumers

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 12:37AM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

The CBO has posted its first analysis of the Senate's health care bill, which you can access
here.

As advertised, the bill reduces the deficit considerably in both the near- and long-term, while expanding coverage to 94 percent of Americans. By 2019, 25 million people would be buying insurance through a health insurance exchange.

However, it's not all roses. For instance, based on an assessment of the political popularity of the public option, the CBO has concluded that enough states will "opt out" to prevent a full third of consumers from purchasing government insurance.

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Health Care

Reid Outlines Bill For Caucus, Warns Conservative Dems That Reconciliation Is Still An Option

Brian Beutler | November 18, 2009, 6:45PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

At a special evening meeting of the Democratic caucus tonight, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid outlined, in broad strokes, the details of his health care bill, which the CBO has found, in a preliminary analysis, will expand coverage to 94 percent of Americans while reducing the deficit. And earlier in the day, during a separate meeting about floor procedure, Reid let three of his party's key skeptics know that if they join Republicans at any stage of the process to block the bill, he still retains the option of passing major parts of it through the filibuster proof budget reconciliation process.

In response to a question from TPMDC Nelson told reporters that, at a meeting this afternoon with Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Reid "talked about process, procedure, discussion about reconciliation and a whole host of issues of that sort."

"Nobody's really jumping up and down to push for reconciliation," Nelson said, "he's not threatening that, but anybody can conclude that if you don't move something on to the floor, that is one of the possibilities."

Nelson said he has still not committed to vote for even the first procedural vote, but in a sign that he's leaning toward bringing a bill to the floor, he emphasized his view that the floor debate is a chance to improve the legislation. "I wanted to make it clear that that is, unlike some are suggesting, is not the vote...it's a motion to enter into the debate and possible amendments and improvements of the legislation" Nelson said. "The vote is the second cloture vote, and that is the cloture on a motion to cease debate, and I wanted that clear, because I've already begun to see people out there say, 'oh no, no, if you vote [to take it up] you've voted for health care."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has explicitly stated that the Republican party will treat Democrats who vote for any procedural motion as if they've voted for the entire health care bill.

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CBO

CBO: Senate Bill Costs $849 Billion, Major Deficit Reducer

Brian Beutler | November 18, 2009, 4:52PM

Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Democratic leadership has distributed figures to reporters from a CBO analysis of Senate health care legislation. The numbers affirm what we reported this morning--that Majority Leader Harry Reid is very pleased.

The health care bill--which includes an opt-out public option--will require $849 billion over 10 years in new spending, to be paid for with cuts to Medicare, while reducing the deficit by $127 billion.

In that time it will extend coverage to 31 million Americans--94 percent of citizens will be covered by 2019.

Over the second 10 years, CBO projects even greater cost savings--up to $650 billion, with the caveat that after 10 years, their analyses become highly uncertain.

This meets all of President Obama's goals, and, as has been the pattern during this legislative process, the Senate bill comes at a lower cost, and with greater cost-savings than the House bill, while the House bill covers more Americans.

Health Care

Carper: Conservative Democrats Not Likely To Support Senate Public Option

Brian Beutler | November 17, 2009, 5:22PM

Sen. Thomas Carper (D-DE)

Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) cast serious doubt tonight on whether conservative Democrats will ultimately vote for cloture on the Senate health care bill if it retains a public option with an opt-out clause, and gave new details on yet another compromise that he says might work for them.

Carper, who voted for a public option amendment during the Senate Finance Committee proceedings, first floated his idea last week as a potential alternative, in the event that Reid's public option proposal failed to muster enough Democratic support to overcome a filibuster. Now he says he doubts the support is there.

"We're concerned that a number of centrists aren't prepared to vote for a national public plan, even with an opt-out," Carper said in response to a question from TPMDC. "We're trying to find something that addresses their concern about government run, government-funded, but still addresses the need for the affordability needs and the need for more competition in states that don't have it."

"What we're asking centrists is, What concerns do you need to have addressed so that you can vote for cloture, either to bring the bill to the floor, or to take the bill off the floor and to go to conference? And the two concerns we keep hearing over and over again: government-run, government funded."

(The opt-out plan Reid has proposed would not be government funded, though it's not clear whether it would be run directly by the government, or outsourced to a non-governmental body accountable to Congress.)

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Health Care

Progressives To Moderates: Do You Really Want To Kill Health Care Reform?

Brian Beutler | November 17, 2009, 12:46PM

Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)

The urgency of last night's meeting between Senate progressives and Majority Leader Harry Reid surrounded the fact that, though the overwhelming majority of Democrats want a public option, and several think they've already compromised enough on that score, the votes still aren't there. So, with key votes just around the corner, how can those moderate hold-outs be swayed, and what happens if they can't be? One possibility is simply leaving the ball in the moderates' court.

"There's potentially a dynamic that works in all of this that as you get closer and closer to the vote, you say--you really do say--we're going to make or we're not going to make history, and it takes on another dimension, psychologically," Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) told reporters. "I mean I've been through that myself. I've gone downstairs thinking maybe I'm not going to vote for that, and then suddenly I see its dimension, think of it in large terms, and then vote for it."

Rockefeller downplayed the possibility that, at the end of the process, there won't be 60 votes to end a filibuster.

"We're not taking that tack, what if we can't--we're talking about how we can," Rockefeller told TPMDC. He said using the budget reconciliation process as a procedural tool to circumvent a filibuster would be ugly, and, for that reason, the focus has to be on making sure Democrats (and perhaps Olympia Snowe) stick together to against a filibuster.

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Health Care

Poll: Public Split On Health Care, Heavily In Favor Of Public Option

Eric Kleefeld | November 17, 2009, 10:07AM

President Barack Obama

The new ABC/Washington Post poll finds Democrats in a tricky the public divided on health care reform as it now stands -- but some internal numbers find potential for Democrats to break through, with no clear Republican alternatives in sight.

The poll found 48% of respondents in favor, and 49% against, the health care proposals current being developed by Congress and the Obama administration. In addition, opponents were more intense, with 39% strongly against and 10% only somewhat against, compared to 30% strongly in favor and 18% somewhat in favor.

In addition, 52% expect their own personal health care costs to increase if the bill is passed, and 56% expect the country's overall costs to increase.

However, respondents were also asked: "Do you think leaders of the Republican Party are mainly presenting alternatives to
Obama's proposals, or mainly criticizing Obama's alternatives?" In this case, only 31% said the Republicans were presenting alternatives, with 61% saying they were mainly criticizing Obama.

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Health Care

Progressives Push Reid On The Public Option

Brian Beutler | November 17, 2009, 9:02AM

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Last night, a number of Senate progressives, led by Sherrod Brown (D-OH), met with Majority Leader Harry Reid to make sure his eyes are still trained on the importance of a public option, and to game out a strategy for getting 60 votes to pass a health care bill with a public option on the floor.

According to sources, the meeting was meant to serve as a reminder to that progressives still feel very strongly about the importance of including a public option in the Senate's health care bill and that they've compromised enough.

Today, Reid expects to receive an analysis of his bill from CBO, which he'll circulate among members of his caucus. It should show that the cost of the bill is below $900 billion, and that it reduces the deficit in both the near and long term.

Joe Lieberman

CT Religious Leaders Pray For Lieberman 'To Come Home' On Health Care

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 16, 2009, 3:36PM

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

A growing number Connecticut's religious leaders are calling on Sen. Joe Lieberman to appeal to a higher power and change his mind about including a public option in a health care reform bill.

Last night, hundreds of reform supporters from congregations across the state held a candlelight vigil outside Lieberman's home in Stamford, CT. Today, a group of more than 70 religious leaders from Christian and Jewish congregations sent a letter calling on Lieberman to abandon his threats to filibuster any health care reform bill in the Senate that includes a public option.

"A lot of groups who have historically supported [Lieberman] are praying for him to come back home," Rabbi Ron Fish, leader of the Concerned Clergy Of Connecticut, which sent the letter, told TPMDC.

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Health Care

Senate Dems Will Force Republicans To Debate Long Hours If They Obstruct

Christina Bellantoni | November 16, 2009, 12:36PM

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA)

The health care debate will be restarted in earnest tomorrow as Senate Democrats expect the Congressional Budget Office to score their version of the bill, which includes the opt-out public option.

But Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) today on a radio show laid out a schedule that would put the bill on Obama's desk in January, another delay.

Harkin was not very optimistic about the timing of final passage, saying on the "Bill Press Radio Show" the Senate would need to work every weekend in December to pass the bill by Christmas, according to The Hill.

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Health Care

Michelle Obama Uses Stories That 'Touch Our Hearts' In Health Care Pitch

Christina Bellantoni | November 13, 2009, 3:59PM

First Lady Michelle Obama

With President Obama abroad, First Lady Michelle Obama is stepping in for a few days with a focus on health care.

At an event with women at the White House this afternoon, the first lady joined health care czar Nancy-Ann DeParle. They showcased the stories of women whose families had suffered due to bad insurance and the Medicare "donut hole."

"These stories touch our hearts and they spark in us a fundamental source of unfairness," she said.

Obama said she can't say what the bill "that ultimately will cross my husband's desk will look like," but said it would be true reform.

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CBO

Tomorrow Could Be A Really Big Day For Health Care--Here's Why

Brian Beutler | November 12, 2009, 6:13PM

Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has been trading options and numbers with the CBO for weeks now, and they're reportedly nearly done. A final analysis on a complete package could be available as early as tomorrow. If that happens, it will be yet another big day for Senate Democrats as they struggle to reach consensus over landmark health care reform legislation.

Once it's unveiled, and the bill meets daylight, it will be crunch time for conservative Democrats--most notably Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln--who have been withholding their commitment to supply the bill much-needed procedural votes until they've had a chance to see it and hear from CBO.

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Health Care

GOP Sees 2010 Window, Gloat That Dems Who Opposed Health Care Will Take Dual Heat

Christina Bellantoni | November 11, 2009, 5:38PM

(Top, L-R), Rep. Boucher (D-VA), Rep. Shuler (D-NC), Rep. Ross (D-AR). (Bottom, L-R), Rep. Altmire (D-PA), Rep. Nye (D-VA), Rep. Tanner (D-TN)

Much like Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Sen. Ben Nelson, looks like the 39 Democrats voting against the House health care bill Saturday are getting squeezed from both sides.

We've been writing about all the left-leaning campaigns going after Democrats on health care, and plenty of efforts to hit Republicans as party of "no."

TPMDC has been chatting with Republicans who want to pick off vulnerable House Democrats in 2010 and they (not surprisingly) are pleased as punch by the internal warfare.

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