Rasmussen

Poll: Random People In A Phonebook Would Do Better Than Current Congress

David Taintor | February 9, 2012, 6:16AM

What's a phone book, you ask? Before smart phones and high-speed internet access, people had to consult a massive book to look up phone numbers. And according to a recent Rasmussen poll, a plurality of voters think the random people inside it would do a better job than the current Congress.

Forty-three percent of respondents said a group of random people selected from the phone book would do a better job addressing the nation's problems than their current representatives. Thirty-eight percent of respondents disagreed and 19 percent weren't sure.

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Scott Walker

Rasmussen Poll: Almost Six In Ten Wisconsin Voters Disapprove Of Gov. Walker

Jon Terbush | March 4, 2011, 12:56PM

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's efforts to strip public employee unions of most of their collective bargaining rights appears to be so unpopular, that a Rasmussen poll now finds that almost 60% of likely Wisconsin voters disapprove of his job performance.

That finding shows just how quickly Walker -- who was elected to his first term last November with 52% of the vote -- has sunk just in his first two months in office. And it comes one day after Rasmussen released results from the same poll, all of which showed public opinion firmly on the side of the unions in the labor rights battle that has deadlocked the state capitol for the past few weeks.

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Scott Walker

Rasmussen Poll: Majority of Wisconsinites Side With Unions On Collective Bargaining

Jon Terbush | March 3, 2011, 12:09PM

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has caught a lot of flak for his proposal to strip public employee unions of most of their collective bargaining rights. He can add to that a new poll of likely Wisconsin voters from Rasmussen -- a pollster much maligned for its typically Republican-skewing results -- which finds public opinion firmly against him on the issue.

A majority of those polled said they sided with the public employee unions rather than Gov. Walker in the showdown that has deadlocked the state government for more than two weeks. And while a plurality favor a plan to make state employees pay more toward their benefit plans -- something the unions have already agreed to do -- a majority oppose the most contentious proposal put forward by Walker: the elimination of most collective bargaining rights for state employee unions.

Just as damning for Walker, a majority also said they sided with the AWOL Senate Democrats, who fled the state to deny the senate the quorum necessary to advance the budget repair bill.

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Rasmussen

Rasmussen Poll On Gov't Shutdown Shows Inverse Of Gallup Findings

Jon Terbush | February 28, 2011, 12:57PM

According to one poll, six in ten Americans want a budget compromise to prevent a government shutdown. According to another survey 60% want a government shutdown to get to a budget compromise. Wait, what?

Yes, two polls in the past week have shown apparently opposite results on how Americans feel about a looming government shutdown, should Congress not pass a budget by the end of the week. So why the sharp discrepancy?

The answer, as is so often the case, is in the framing.

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2012 Presidential Primaries

Rasmussen Poll: Romney Holds Slim Lead On 2012 GOP Field

Jon Terbush | January 24, 2011, 12:12PM

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)

Fresh off dominating the New Hampshire straw poll over the weekend, Mitt Romney got another boost to his presidential aspirations in the form of a new national Rasmussen poll that shows the former Massachusetts Governor leading his potential competition for the GOP nomination.

In the poll, 24% of respondents went for Romney, while 19% supported Sarah Palin, and 17% said Mike Huckabee was their top choice. Newt Gingrich came in fourth at 11%, followed by Tim Pawlenty (6%), Ron Paul (4%), and Mitch Daniels (3%). An aditional 16% said they were either undecided or planned to vote for another candidate.

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Barack Obama

He's Back? Obama's Approval Rating Surges In Recent Polls

Jon Terbush | January 14, 2011, 12:20PM

President Barack Obama (D)

Just two months removed from a midterm shellacking that saw the GOP win a whopping 63 seats in the House, President Obama's approval rating has suddenly spiked in recent polls, a change so significant that for the first time in eight months the President has a net positive approval rating in the TPM Poll Average.

In the current TPM Poll Average, Obama posts an approval rating of 47.9% compared to a disapproval rating of 47.3%. It marks the first time Obama has notched a net positive in the TPM average since May 18, when that split was 47.7% to 47.6%.

Virtually every pollster has tracked at least a nominal improvement in the President's approval rating over the last month or so, including a 13-point net approval swing in the latest Marist poll. And while it would be mere speculation to cite the surge as evidence that Obama has completely regained his mojo and that his approval will keep climbing, the turnaround is striking considering his standing as 2010 drew to a close.

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Barack Obama

Rasmussen Poll: 45% Concerned Obama's Opponents Would Resort To Violence

Jon Terbush | January 12, 2011, 8:44AM

President Barack Obama

The shooting spree in Tucson, Arizona that killed six people and left Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) in critical condition has heightened public awareness of how vulnerable elected officials are, and spurred a discussion of what further measures should be taken to protect them. Yet compared to one year ago, fewer Americans now believe it is at least somewhat likely that people opposed to President Obama could resort to violence against him, according to a Rasmussen poll taken in the days following the Tucson tragedy.

In the poll, a 45% plurality said they were to some degree concerned that Obama's opponents would resort to violence against him, versus 52% who said it was not a major concern of theirs. Last March, 53% of Americans thought Obama's opponents could take violent action against the President. That poll was conducted shortly after the passage of the much demonized Democratic health care reform bill, which sparked large public protests rife with the sort of violent political rhetoric some have said may have contributed to the events in Tucson.

Democrats were most likely to fear violent retribution against the President, with 67% saying that was at least somewhat likely, compared to just 30% of Republicans and 40% of Independents who thought the same.

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2010 elections

Rasmussen Poll: Majority Of Americans Don't Expect To Like This Congress Either

Jon Terbush | January 5, 2011, 10:49AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Though Republicans won't officially assume control of the House until this afternoon, a Rasmussen poll released yesterday finds that a large majority of Americans already believe most people will be disappointed with Congressional Republicans by the 2012 elections. What's more, Republicans are already more unpopular now than they were immediately prior to the midterm elections.

In the new poll, 67% of respondents said it was likely that voters would grow dissatisfied with Republicans in Congress over the next two years, including 37% who said that was very likely. Only 25% of respondents said it wasn't likely that voters would be dissatisfied with the GOP come 2012.

That finding comes just two months removed from the midterm wave that swept away 63 Democratic seats in the House. Further, the 67% of voters who expect to be dissatisfied with Congressional Republicans is also eight points higher than the 59% who felt the same way around Election Day, when a Republican takeover seemed inevitable.

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Economy

Rasmussen Poll: Concern About Economy Hits Highest Point In Two Years

Jon Terbush | January 4, 2011, 10:07AM

According to a new Rasmussen poll, the number of voters who say the economy will be "very important" in determining whom they vote for in the next Congressional elections has reached its highest point in more than two years.

In the poll, 87% of respondents cited the economy as a very important issue, the largest percentage since August 2008, when Rasmussen began polling the question regularly. The new result is up five points from the 82% finding in the previous poll, conducted in October 2010.

The economy has almost always been the top concern cited by voters, with the percentage of respondents who've called it "very important" holding steadily above 80% since October 2009. The next most important issues surveyed in the latest poll were health care (71%), ethics and corruption (67%), and taxes (65%.)

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Bush Tax Cuts

Do Americans Support Obama's Tax Cuts Deal? Depends How You Ask

Jon Terbush | December 13, 2010, 8:37AM

President Barack Obama

Two-thirds of Americans want the Bush tax cuts for the nation's wealthiest to expire at the end of the year, according to one recent poll. But in another poll, two-thirds of Americans want to extend all of the Bush tax cuts -- including those for the country's top earners.

How can that be possible? The answer is all in the poll question's phrasing.

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Patty Murray

Is Dino Rossi Making Late Surge Against Sen. Patty Murray In Washington?

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 9:21AM

WA-SEN candidates Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R)

A new Public Policy poll of 2,055 likely voters in Washington state has got to be causing Senate Democrat Patty Murray heartburn. Murray has been leading her Republican rival Dino Rossi in most polls for weeks, but this one has her down two points, 50-48.

Now, Murray was ahead or at least tied in all but one survey last week. That was a Rasmussen poll which gave Rossi a one point lead, 48-47.

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CO-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Buck Up 4 In CO-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 3:03PM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Colorado Senate race finds Republican Ken Buck leading Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet 48%-44%.

When Rasmussen took a look at this race two weeks ago, Buck was ahead 47%-45%. Recent polls have suggested that the Republican's lead in the contest has been dwindling.

The TPM Poll Average has Buck on top 47.9%-45.4%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Manchin Retakes Lead In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 1:03PM

Joe Manchin (D)

In a piece of rare good news for the Democrats, the new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Gov. Joe Manchin, a relatively conservative Dem, retaking the lead over Republican businessman John Raese in the special election to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 49%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous survey from last week, Raese enjoyed a healthy lead of 50%-43%. The last time Rasmussen had Manchin ahead was in September.

This race has pitted Manchin's widespread popularity as governor against President Obama's deep unpopularity in the state. Manchin has taken various steps to distance himself from the national Democrats -- most notably when he taped a commercial in which he took a rifle and shot a "cap and trade bill." He may have also gained some traction by casting Raese as a "crazy" right-wing extremist.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a narrow lead of 47.3%-46.4%.

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CO-SEN

Polls Show Colorado Senate Race Tightening As Election Approaches

Eric Lach | October 27, 2010, 8:41AM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A number of recent polls of the Colorado Senate race all suggest the same thing: this is going to be a close one. Four separate pollsters have all shown Republican Ken Buck's lead shrinking -- or disappearing altogether.

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NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Angle Leads Harry Reid By Four Points

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 2:17PM

NV-SEN candidates Sharron Angle (R) and Harry Reid (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race has Republican Sharron Angle leading Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by four points.

The numbers: Angle 49%, Reid 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Angle led by 50%-47%.

The TPM Poll Average now has Angle leading by 49.3%-46.9%.

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CT-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Blumenthal Leads McMahon By 13 Points In CT-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 9:54AM

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal

The new Rasmussen poll of the Connecticut Senate race shows Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal pulling away strongly from Republican Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment.

The numbers: Blumenthal 56%, McMahon 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Blumenthal had a narrower lead of 51%-46%.

As a result of this poll, Rasmussen has now changed its rating of this race from "Leans Democrat" to "Solid Democrat."

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 52.3%-43.6%.

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CA-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Brown Leads Whitman By Six Points In CA-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 23, 2010, 5:50PM

California gubernatorial candidates Jerry Brown (D) and Meg Whitman (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of the California gubernatorial race shows Democrat Jerry Brown maintaining his lead over Republican Meg Whitman.

The numbers: Brown 48%, Whitman 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous survey from a week and a half ago, Brown led by 50%-44%.

The pollster's analysis lays out how Brown has risen in the polls, and Whitman has fallen: "Support for Brown, a longtime Democratic figure in the state who previously served as governor from 1975 to 1983, has steadily risen from 40% in late August. Backing for Whitman, a former CEO of eBay, has declined slightly from a high of 48% in the same period."

The TPM Poll Average gives Brown a lead of 47.6%-41.9%.

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CA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Boxer Leads By 2 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 22, 2010, 2:40PM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A new Rasmussen survey of the California Senate race finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 48%-46%.

When Rasmussen took a look at this race last week, Boxer was up three points, 49%-46%. An October 18 SurveyUSA poll had the Democrat up two points as well, 46%-44%, while an October 17 Public Policy Institute of California poll found her five points ahead of the Republican nominee.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading the contest 46.7%-43.5%. The margin of error for the newest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

PA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Toomey's Lead Shrinks To Four Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 1:40PM

Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey

The new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race provides yet another data point that Democrat Joe Sestak is closing the gap against Republican Pat Toomey, with Toomey's lead shrinking from ten points down to just four.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous poll from less than two weeks ago, Toomey led by a much stronger 49%-39%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.1%-44.4%, with Sestak's blue line rapidly approaching Toomey's red one.

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FL-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Scott Leads By 6 In FL-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 20, 2010, 12:06PM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

Both candidates in the Florida gubernatorial race have earned their fair share of polling leads over the last few months. Most recently, Democratic state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink was found on top of three consecutive surveys conducted last week. Today, however, a newly released Rasmussen poll suggests a different story -- Republican former hospital executive Rick Scott is found leading the contest 50%-44%.

When Rasmussen last took a look at this race on October 7, Scott led by a slimmer 50%-47% margin. The TPM Poll Average has the Republican ahead 45.5%-44.0%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here

IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Kirk Leads By Four Points In IL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2010, 9:42AM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Illinois Senate race gives Republican Mark Kirk a narrow lead against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, for the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama.

The numbers: Kirk 44%, Giannoulias 40%, and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones 4%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Giannoulias had 44%, Kirk 43%, and Jones 4%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Highlighting the closeness of this contest is the fact that Kirk and Giannoulias have now run within four points or less of each other in 10 surveys since early June. Jones' support has held steady at four percent (4%) for the last three surveys."

This new poll was conducted entirely before last night's acrimonious debate, but it does provide a useful baseline measurement for any potential changes down the line. The TPM Poll Average gives Kirk 44.1%, Giannoulias 42.3%, and Jones 3.6%.

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KY-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Conway Gaining Steam In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 19, 2010, 1:14PM

Kentucky senatorial candidate Jack Conway (D)

A new poll from Rasmussen -- not usually the first pollster Democrats look to for good news -- shows that Democrat Jack Conway has Republican Rand Paul on the run in the Kentucky Senate race. The new poll shows Paul leading by just five, a significant drop from the last Rasmussen poll which showed Paul up by 11.

In the new numbers, Paul is ahead 47-42. The poll of likely voters was taken yesterday using Rasmussen's robo-poll system, meaning the survey came as controversy over Conway's latest tactics reached a fever pitch. The last Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 29, before Conway's attacks on Paul's college career and in the midst of the war over Paul's position on Medicare. That poll showed Paul ahead 49-38.

If the Rasmussen poll is any judge, Conway's plan of attack appears to be working. As the pollster notes in its analysis, the new poll is Conway's "best showing since June."

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WA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Murray Up 3 In WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 18, 2010, 3:35PM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

A new Rasmussen survey of the Washington Senate race finds Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray leading Republican nominee Dino Rossi 49%-46%.

When Rasmussen last took a look at the race on October 6, Rossi was on top 49%-46%. Since the Republican enjoyed a lead in four straight polls from September 27-October 9 (conducted by right-leaning pollster Fabrizio, Rasmussen twice, and Fox News), the incumbent Democrat has found herself atop five straight polls.

The TPM Poll Average finds Murray with a 49.5%-45.9% advantage in the race. The latest poll's margin of error is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Angle Leads By Three Points In NV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 18, 2010, 11:21AM

Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sharron Angle (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race gives Republican nominee Sharron Angle a narrow lead against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The numbers: Angle 50%, Reid 47%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Angle had a one-point edge of 49%-48%.

[TPM SLIDESHOW - 'Showdown In Searchlight': Tea Partiers Rally To Boot Harry Reid]

The TPM Poll Average has Angle ahead by 48.5%-47.4%

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CO-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Buck Leads Bennet By 2 In CO-SEN

Eric Lach | October 18, 2010, 9:56AM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A new Ramussen poll of the Colorado Senate race shows Sen. Michael Bennet (45%) trailing Republican Ken Buck (47%) by just 2 points, prompting the pollster to shift the race from "Leans Republican" to a "Toss-Up."

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese's Lead Shrinks To Three Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2010, 1:35PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

The new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows Republican businessman John Raese still ahead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, but with his lead tightening from where it was before.

The numbers: Raese 49%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese led by 50%-44%.

This poll comes in the wake of a recent fumble by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which launched an ad that was produced in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors. (The NRSC condemned the casting call when it was first reported, saying that it was done without their knowledge by a subcontractor.)

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OH-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Strickland Down Only 3 In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 13, 2010, 11:30AM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race finds Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland well within striking distance of Republican former Rep. John Kasich.

The latest survey shows the incumbent governor behind 48%-45%-- within the survey's margin of error of ±4.0 percentage points. When Rasmussen took a look at the race on September 27, Kasich was ahead by a more significant eight-point margin, 50%-42%.

The TPM Poll Average still shows Kasich ahead in the contest 48.7%-42.5%.

NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Angle Ahead By One Point In NV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2010, 11:09AM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and NV-SEN candidate Sharron Angle (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race gives Republican Sharron Angle a one-point edge against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The numbers: Angle 49%, Reid 48%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Angle had a slightly wider lead of 50%-46%.

The pollster's analysis points out the consistent closeness of this race: "In seven consecutive surveys, both candidates have seen their level of support generally in the upper forty's and both have touched the 50% mark but never topped it. In those seven surveys, Reid has held the edge three times, Angle three times and they were tied at 48% in one. Neither candidate has held a lead outside the margin of sampling error."

The TPM Poll Average now has Reid and Angle at a dead-even tie -- 47.6%-47.6%.

TX-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Rick Perry Up Double-Digits In TX-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 7, 2010, 3:21PM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Texas gubernatorial race finds Republican Gov. Rick Perry up 11 points on Democratic former Houston Mayor Bill White, 53%-42%.

Read more »

CT-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Blumenthal Leads McMahon By 11 Points In CT-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2010, 2:29PM

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Connecticut Senate race gives Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal a big lead over Republican former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.

The numbers: Blumenthal 54%, McMahon 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from a week and a half ago, Blumenthal led by only 50%-45%.

Along with two other recent surveys, one from Public Policy Polling (D) and the other from Fox News (conducted via a Rasmussen offshoot), the evidence is piling up that Blumenthal appears to be pulling away after McMahon had previously been closing the gap.

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 51.1%-44.0%.

WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By Six Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2010, 1:02PM

West Virginia Senate candidate John Raese (R)

Another Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Republican businessman John Raese extending his lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the race for the Senate seat that was held for over 50 years by Democrat Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 50%, Manchin 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese had just taken a narrow edge of 48%-46%.

Polls have consistently shown that Manchin is very popular, and few would question the idea that he is the best candidate the Democrats could have recruited for the race. However, President Obama remains highly unpopular in this state, Republicans are clearly capitalizing on this very effectively.

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 49.4%-43.4%.

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CO-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Hickenlooper Leads Tancredo By 8 In CO-GOV

Eric Lach | October 4, 2010, 2:31PM

CO Gov. candidates John Hickenlooper (D), Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo (Constitution).

A new Rasmussen poll of the Colorado gubernatorial race shows third-party candidate Tom Tancredo within eight points of Democrat John Hickenlooper, with Republican Dan Maes far behind.

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CA-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Jerry Brown Leads Meg Whitman By Five Points In CA-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 4, 2010, 1:00PM

California Gov. Jerry Brown

The new Rasmussen poll of the California gubernatorial race -- the first survey since Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman became implicated in a scandal over having hired an illegal immigrant housekeeper -- shows Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown, who previously served as governor from 1975-1983, building up his newfound lead against her.

The numbers: Brown 49%, Whitman 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Brown led Whitman by 47%-46%.

Also of note, the TPM Poll Average now gives Brown a bare lead of 45.2%-45.1% -- the first time in many weeks that he has been ahead in this measurement.

Whitman's past strong performance in the polls came from her heavy self-financing -- at over $119 million, she is the biggest self-financing candidate ever in this country. However, other recent polls, such as a recent survey from Public Policy Polling (D), have suggested that Whitman reached the point of over-saturating the market. And the maid story probably isn't helping her, either.

FL-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Rick Scott Leads By Five Points In FL-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 1:02PM

Rick Scott

The new Rasmussen poll of the Florida gubernatorial race gives Republican former health care executive Rick Scott the lead over Democratic state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

The numbers: Scott 46%, Sink 41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Scott led by 50%-44%.

This result is similar to a Quinnipiac poll released earlier today, which put Scott ahead by 49%-43%. The TPM Poll Average gives Scott a lead of 46.8%-43.2%.

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KY-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Rand Paul Leads By 11 In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 2:07PM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

Rand Paul has a double-digit lead in the Kentucky Senate race, according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today. The poll of likely voters shows Paul, the Republican nominee, leading Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 49-38.

Rasmussen's last poll in Kentucky, conducted Sept. 7, showed Paul with a larger 15-point lead. That poll showed Paul ahead 54-39. The dip in support for Paul matches that seen in all other polling of the race lately, which has shown Conway gaining ground. The poll shows that Paul's self-professed tea party candidacy may be causing some problems for the Republican, despite the large lead.

"Paul has the backing of 88% of Tea Party members and 29% of non-members," the pollster reports. "Fifty-eight percent of those who say they are not part of the movement support Conway."

The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 47.4-41.9

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WA-SEN

Rasmussen: Rossi Leads WA-SEN By One Point

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 10:32AM

US Senate candidate Dino Rossi (R-WA)

Republican Dino Rossi has taken a one-point lead over incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) according to the latest poll from Rasmussen. Murray leads in the poll 48-47.

That's a big momentum shift for Rossi, who trailed Murray by seven in Rasmussen's last poll of the race which was taken on Sept. 14. Both polls were conducted among likely voters, using the Rasmussen screen that Democrats have long contended is slanted toward the GOP (Rasmussen has just as long denied this).

Other polling from the contest shows a tightening race as well. The TPM Poll Average shows Murray leading 49.6-47.2.

The last three polls of the race -- two of which were conducted using Ramussen's methodology and automated call system -- have shown the race to be razor-close. A live-interview poll of the race conducted by CNN/Time on Sept. 14 showed Murray leading by 9 points.

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NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Reid Up By One Point In NV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 2:04PM

US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV) and Senator Harry Reid (D-NV)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race gives a one-point advantage to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid agains this Republican opponent Sharron Angle.

The numbers: Reid 48%, Angle 47%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4.14% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, the two were tied at 48%-48%.

The TPM Poll Average currently puts Reid ahead by 47.7%-45.2%

DE-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Castle Scores Only 5 Points As Write-In For DE-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 11:10AM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)

Does Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE), who lost the GOP primary for Senate in a stunning upset two weeks ago to Christine O'Donnell, have a chance if he gets back into the general election as a write-in candidate? According to a new Rasmussen poll, the answer is no. Furthermore, it seems that he would more likely siphon votes away from Democrat Chris Coons, rather than hinder O'Donnell.

The numbers: Coons 49%, O'Donnell 40%, and Castle 5%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, just after O'Donnell won the primary, Coons led O'Donnell by 53%-42%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Rasmussen Reports did ask Castle supporters who they would vote for in a two-person race and virtually all said either Coons or not sure."

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CT-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Blumenthal's Lead In CT-SEN Race Narrows To Five Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 10:41AM

CT-SEN candidates Richard Blumenthal (D) and Linda McMahon (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Connecticut Senate race shows Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's lead over Republican former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon continuing to narrow.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Bringing The Smackdown: Linda McMahon's Campaign For Senate, And Her Colorful Pro-Wrestling Past]

The numbers: Blumenthal 50%, McMahon 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. The previous Rasmussen poll from two and a half weeks ago put Blumenthal ahead by 53%-44%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 50.0%-44.2%.

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FL-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Scott Leads Dem Sink By 6 In FL-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | September 24, 2010, 3:44PM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

A day after a Quinnipiac poll found state Chief Financial Officer and Democratic nominee Alex Sink on top of Republican former hospital executive Rick Scott 47%-40% in the Florida gubernatorial race, a new Rasmussen poll shows the Republican up by six points, 50%-44%.

When Rasmussen last looked at this race on September 1, Sink had a 48%-47% edge. A September 12 Reuters/Ipsos poll gave the Republican a 47%-45% advantage, while a September 11 Fox News poll had Sink ahead by eight, 49%-41%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

The TPM Poll Average for the contest has Sink edging out Scott, 45.5%-44.4%. For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.