
House Republicans are poised to advance legislation this week to repeal President Obama's Medicare cost-cutting board, a provision enacted in the health care reform law. The Energy & Commerce Committee is set to mark it up this Wednesday, and the repeal bill already has enough cosponsors to pass the House. It's not expected to survive the Senate or Obama's veto pen, but the debate over this provision cuts to the heart of the battle over how to save Medicare in the long run.
Some background: The Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) is set to take effect in 2014, and would comprise 15 President-appointed and Senate-confirmed experts charged with holding down Medicare per-beneficiary spending by restricting reimbursements to providers. It is forbidden from cutting payments to beneficiaries. Congress can override the panel is by passing an alternate way to save the same amount of money, or with a three-fifths Senate majority. The health care industry has been outspoken in its hatred for IPAB. Republicans are united in their effort to kill it, and even some House Dems are on that page.
The question now is: Why is the party that's hell-bent on reining in Medicare pushing to repeal this powerful tool for doing just that? Part of it is to score political points by slicing off a key piece of the Affordable Care Act. But more importantly, Republicans don't want to keep Medicare in its current form. Many of them don't think that's feasible. They want to transition it to a privatized model a la the Paul Ryan plan, where seniors get a fixed subsidy -- or "premium support" -- to buy their own insurance on a private exchange.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republicans are continuing their gradual pivot away from the Paul Ryan Medicare plan they once voted for overwhelmingly -- another tacit admission that the blueprint is too radical to pass. But they haven't given up on the concept -- far from it. In fact, they're searching for more tactful ways to bring it to fruition.
The latest evidence came Thursday, when Republican Sens. Tom Coburn (OK) and Richard Burr (NC) rolled out a sweeping new plan that would transition Medicare to a subsidized private insurance system while giving seniors the option to remain in the traditional government-run program -- think "Obamacare" exchanges with a public option.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With the year 2010 coming to a close, and a truly raucous election season behind us (and another set to begin), let's take a look at a real highlight of the cycle: A sampling, even just a small one, of some great campaign ads we got to see over the past year.
Unlike some of our other lists, we're not talking about a mix of great ads and awful ones that took on a kitsch value. (I'm looking in your direction, "I'm not a witch. I'm you," and also at you, "Aqua Buddha.")
No, here we're talking about truly great ads that applied ingenuity, creativity and pure guts to an election. We're talking about the ones whose creators deserve accolades and good spots on campaigns for 2012 -- and might just get them.
So get out your popcorn and your New Year's alcohol, and watch our five picks.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr's vote to repeal 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' isn't sitting well with some fellow Republicans back in his home state, even as one prominent local Democrat plans to thank him in writing.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In 2010, the debate over gay rights, while a major issue for many groups, has not played a central role in the political debate surrounding most midterm elections. This is partially due to the economy taking center stage, and partially due to the fact that American society is just kind of over the whole thing, and is more tolerant of the LGBT community than ever before.
Yet on the campaign trail, the divisions over Don't Ask Don't Tell and other gay rights causes can still run very deep between the two parties -- creating a clear distinction that popped up last night in a debate between the two nominees running for Senate in North Carolina.
The exchange between Sen. Richard Burr (R) and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) isn't likely to change the election's outcome -- polls show Burr with a big lead, and most observers expect him to cruise to reelection this fall.
But the debate offered one of the clearest views of the differences between Republicans and Democrats over LGBT rights found this year. Marshall called DADT "governmental discrimination," equal to "judging people by the color of their hair, the color of their eyes, or the color of their skin, or other factors they have no control over."
Burr said he had no idea whether homosexuality is a choice or biological and bristled at the idea that the battle for racial Civil Rights is equatable to granting LGBT rights.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)For the first time in nearly two months of polling, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr's lead in the North Carolina Senate race is in the single-digits. Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall finds herself trailing by eight points in a newly released PPP poll, 48%-40%, with Libertarian Michael Beitler earning 3%.
Burr's lead over the last month has ranged from 13 points (in PPP's September 26 look at the race) to 20 points. The TPM Poll Average still finds Marshall with some major ground to make up -- she's at 35.0%, compared to Burr's 50.8%.
The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.
For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) and his Democratic rival in the North Carolina Senate race, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, traded barbs last night in a debate that reports describe as "civil."
The tone didn't mean the candidates agreed much, however, with the pair clashing over "the new health care law, on drilling off the state's coast and on which party was responsible for the national debt," according to the Raleigh, NC News & Observer. (The Libertarian candidate in the race -- who polls show is drawing little support -- declined to participate.)
To no one's surprise, Marshall "most often played the role of the aggressor" in the hour-long debate. Marshall needs her repeated jabs at Burr on the campaign trail to connect with voters -- and do it quickly -- if she wants to overcome polling that shows her to be an extreme underdog. The TPM Poll Average shows Burr ahead of Marshall by a margin of 50.2-32.8.
Last night's forum may not have been the tide-turning event Marshall needs, however. "The debate was civil in tone, although both candidates got in jabs," the N&O reports. "At other times, the debate seemed flat. There were no moments of high drama, and there appeared to be no major mistakes."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) is continuing his plan to seemingly repeat Sen. Kay Hagan's (D-NC) successful ad blitz that won her the 2008 election over Elizabeth Dole. Using the same two actors Hagan did in her old-men-rocking-on-a-porch spots, Burr is turning their elderly frustration against the Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, this year.
The new ad focuses on the standard GOP bogeymen of the cycle -- rising deficits, spending and cap-and-trade.
"Six!" one old man yells from his rocking chair.
"Nope, a little before five," the other deapans from his rocking chair.
The two then begin to banter about the "six trillion dollars in new government spending" the pair say Marshall wants to bring to Washington.
The TPM Poll Average shows Burr leading Marshall 53.3-35.4.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)While incumbent Democrats run scared from a fight over letting tax cuts for wealthy Americans expire, some Democratic hopefuls are running openly on President Obama's platform.
Take Elaine Marshall, running to unseat Sen. Richard Burr in red North Carolina.
"She thinks the rich can pay their fair share," her spokesman Sam Swartz told TPMDC.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new SurveyUSA poll of the North Carolina Senate race finds incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) with a commanding lead over his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, 58%-34%.
The survey's 24-point margin is the largest lead for the Republican in recent months' polling. Libertarian nominee Mike Beitler earned 6% of respondents' support in the latest survey. A July 25 SurveyUSA poll produced a much narrower margin in the contest, with Burr up on Marshall 42%-39%. A September 8 Rasmussen survey had the Republican nominee up 16-points, 54%-38%. Marshall's campaign insisted that Rasmussen survey was an "outlier poll". August and late-July polling of the contest never produced a double-digit margin between the two leading candidates.
The TPM Poll Average finds Burr with a 53.3%-35.4% advantage over Marshall.
For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new poll out this morning suggests a second female Democratic Senator is not in the cards for North Carolina. The Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters shows incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) trouncing his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, 54-38.
Past polling from the race has shown Burr ahead, but not by this much. Rasmussen's last poll, taken a month ago, showed Burr leading 49-40. A PPP (D) poll from July 31 showed Burr ahead by just 2 in a three-way race that included Libertarian nominee Mike Beitler. (It should be noted here that Democrats generally view Rasmussen as GOP-leaning, though the pollster insists it is non-partisan.)
Marshall handily won the Democratic nomination over the national Democratic party choice, Cal Cunningham, in the June 22 runoff. National party figures hinted they would stay out of the race if Cunningham wasn't the nominee, and so far that seems to be the case. Marshall -- a long-running figure in state politics -- has found herself out-gunned versus the first-term Burr in the early part of the general election fight. The Republican just went on the air with his first TV ad, a clever spot that literally steals the two actors Sen. Kay Hagan (D) used to upset Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in 2008.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) has an incredible new ad out -- rehiring the actors who appeared in a popular Democratic ad from 2008, with their characters talking about how they bungled it last time.
Back in 2008, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ran ads featuring two down-home old men on a porch, talking about how ineffectual and pro-Bush Sen. Elizabeth Dole was. The ad picked up a lot of attention. When election day finally rolled around, Dole lost to Democrat Kay Hagan by a 53%-44% landslide, and Barack Obama carried the state against John McCain by a margin of less than one percent -- the first Dem to carry the state for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Now Burr's campaign has headhunted those two old men actors, snatching them away from the Dems for the incumbent's new spot, clearly aimed at voters who might have buyer's remorse. "Boy we sure got it wrong last election," the first man says.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new Rasmussen poll of the North Carolina Senate race gives Republican Sen. Richard Burr a nine-point lead over Democrat Elaine Marshall, who some polls have shown gaining ground on Burr. Rasmussen's latest numbers show Burr leading 49%-40%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democrat Elaine Marshall is gaining ground on Republican Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina's Senate race, a new poll shows. A PPP (D) survey (PDF) released today finds Burr with a thin lead over Marshall, 39%-37%. PPP's previous survey of the race from late June showed Burr ahead five points, 38%-33%.
PPP isn't the only pollster to find Marshall closing in on Burr. SurveyUSA polls from July 11 and July 25 show Burr's 10-point lead on the 11th shrinking to three points on the 25th.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new Civitas poll of the North Carolina Senate race finds incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr ahead with a 44%-37% lead over North Carolina Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.
"Burr continues to maintain a solid lead over Marshall despite the recent TV ads attacking his record," writes Civitas analyst Chris Hayes. "With Marshall having very little cross-over appeal to Republicans, her standing with the unaffiliated voter will play a key role come Election Day."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)An internal survey of the North Carolina Senate race released by Democrat Elaine Marshall's campaign shows state Secretary of State Marshall narrowly ahead of her opponent, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr. The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners (D), has Marshall at 37%, Burr at 35%, and Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler at 5%.
Burr "is the most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator in the country," write pollsters Celinda Jake and Joshua Ulibarri. "Elaine Marshall is in a strong position to defeat Burr if she has the funds to competitively communicate her message."
The internal poll is at odds with the most recent public polling of the race, which has shown Marshall trailing Burr by ten or more points points. A SurveyUSA poll from July 11 found Burr polling at 46% to Marshall's 36%, and a Rasmussen poll from July 6 found Burr leading Marshall 52%-37%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new survey of the North Carolina Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican Sen. Richard Burr in a close race against Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, with very high undecideds and both candidates remaining heavily unknown.
The numbers: Burr 38%, Marshall 33%, and Libertarian candidate Michael Beitler at 10%, with a whopping 20% undecided. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.4% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, which did not include Beitler and was also conducted during the Democratic primary runoff campaign, Burr led Marshall by 46%-39%. In a three-way match-up, the TPM Poll Average gives Burr 44.0%, Marshall 36.5%, and Beitler 8.0%.
PPP's Tom Jensen writes: "Burr's relatively anonymity for an incumbent Senator can be seen in his approval numbers. 28% of voters still have no opinion of him, with those who do splitting negatively. 34% like the job he's doing while 39% disapprove. Marshall is still pretty unknown too despite 14 years in statewide office and a recently completed campaign to secure her party's nomination. 58% of voters have no opinion about her with 22% seeing her favorably and 20% unfavorably. "
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new SurveyUSA poll of the North Carolina Senate race gives Republican Sen. Richard Burr a ten-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who just won the Dem primary runoff this past Tuesday.
The numbers: Burr 50%, Marshall 40%, Libertarian Mike Beitler at 6%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Burr a lead of 46.8%-39.9%.
This contrasts with a Rasmussen poll from yesterday, which gave Burr only the narrowest of edges at 44%-43%, with Beitler not listed as a choice (though "some other candidate" attracted 7%).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new Rasmussen poll of the North Carolina Senate race shows Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall enjoying a healthy bump in the polls against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, with Marshall only trailing by one point after her big win in Tuesday's Democratic primary runoff.
In this first poll since Marshall took the Dem nomination, Burr has 44% to Marshall's 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In Rasmussen's previous poll from three weeks ago, during the Dem runoff campaign, Burr led Marshall by a much stronger 50%-36%.
The TPM Poll Average gives Burr a lead of 46.8%-39.9%, though this average is composed almost entirely of data from before Marshall won the nomination. Burr has been by far the most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator this cycle, due to an unusual political problem -- many polls have suggested that he is neither popular nor unpopular, but has lackluster approval ratings that show he hasn't made much of an impression with the voters at all. As such, this race will depend in large part on the overall political environment in this swing state, and the quality of the coming campaign against him.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has won the Democratic primary runoff for Senate, defeating the national Democratic Party's favored candidate Cal Cunningham in the race to go up against incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr.
With 49% of precincts reporting, Marshall leads by 61%-39%. In the first-round primary back on May 4, Marshall led with 36%, short of the 40% needed to avoid a runoff, with Cunningham in second with 27%. Looking ahead to the general election, the TPM Poll Average gives Burr a lead over Marshall of 47.6%-38.2% -- which was actually quite similar to his 47.1%-36.0% lead over Cunningham
So does this result represent a rejection of the party establishment? Not exactly. A Public Policy Polling (D) survey from mid-May found that both Marshall's and Cunningham's supporters thought that their candidate was the establishment's choice -- likely projecting their own opinions onto the party as a whole. Another way to look at it is that Marshall, who was first elected to statewide office in 1996 and unsuccessfully sought the Senate nomination in 2002, had been around long enough and earned her turn with the party's base, without committing any disqualifying sins.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The two Democrats vying for the chance to face Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) will meet for their first debate of the Democratic primary runoff tonight. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Iraq War vet Cal Cunningham will square off at 7:00 p.m. eastern in Raleigh.
Marshall is hoping to carry the momentum she brought to the May 4 primary, when she came in first in a crowded field but failed to reach the 40% threshold required to prevent a June 22 runoff. Meanwhile Cunningham -- the national party -- is hoping to take advantage of the extra weeks of campaigning to make up ground. He came in second on May 4 but trailed Marshall by nine points.
Polls have suggested that voters are not particularly engaged in the runoff. A recent poll of the contest by Public Policy Polling (D) showed that both candidates have seen their name ID drop since the primary, a result of neither going on the air with ads since May 4. Tonight's debate may serve to put a little fire back in the contest.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)It may be hundreds of miles away from the site of the still-leaking Deepwater Horizons rig, but the politics of America's worst oil spill has already made its way up the eastern seaboard to North Carolina. Sen. Richard Burr (R) -- a one-term incumbent on the long end of the list of targets for November -- is coming under fire from Democrats over his continued support for offshore drilling even as speculation mounts that oil from the BP spill could land on Carolina beaches before all is said and done.
Even before they choose who'll face Burr in the fall, state Democrats are aiming to make the spill an issue for Burr. In a new online campaign (the first salvo of which was obtained by TPMDC today) they say will expand after the June 22 Democratic primary runoff, they're claiming he's chosen to give BP a free pass as the environmental catastrophe spreads.
For his part, Burr has brushed off the attacks, criticizing Democrats for politicizing the ongoing catastrophe. Underneath it all is the specter of oil washing up on the NC shore, an event that could take oil politics in the state from the realm of philosophical debate to local hot-button issue.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new survey of North Carolina from Public Policy Polling (D) finds Republican Sen. Richard Burr vulnerable against either of his two Democratic challengers, who are currently fighting it out in a June 22 runoff.
The numbers, among registered voters: Burr edges North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by 43%-42%, and leads former state senator and Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham by 44%-39%. The margin of error is ±3.9%.
The TPM Poll Average has Burr leading Marshall by 47.1%-37.7%, and leading Cunningham by 47.7%-35.3%. It should be noted, however, that almost all of this polling predates the first round of the Democratic primary from last week, and the Dems are expected to increase their name recognition.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama was in New York City at noon today, calling on the financial industry to join with politicians in Washington trying to pass banking reform. Meanwhile, back in D.C., a group of Republican Senators was having their own discussions with business types -- but the kind of cooperation they were looking for was somewhat different.
Obama's speech was broadcast live on TV. The Republican meeting, held at the headquarters of the NRSC, was not as open to the press. In fact, an NRSC spokesperson said he didn't know it existed until I emailed him while I was standing outside the building watching a steady stream of Senators and well-heeled guests file in and out. The guests weren't talking either -- they hurried past, refusing to answer a single question about who they were or what they were doing there.
What was the big secret? A fundraiser for Florida Sen. George LeMieux's (R) "Protect America's Future" PAC featuring big name GOP Senators and lobbyists. Why the tight-lipped hustle past three reporters standing out front? Maybe the Republicans were concerned about how it looked. Or maybe they just wanted to get to the buffet.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republican promises to repeal health care have gone from full speed ahead to ... we'll see.
As Democrats are out celebrating the passage of the sweeping health care reform package, some Republicans are having second thoughts. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich went from promising repeal at campaign events to admitting recently on Fox that President Obama would veto any repeal legislation should the GOP win back control of Congress. Hence the new "repeal and replace" push from Republicans.
But several Republicans have gone even farther in recent days, backing away from repeal pledges.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)We told you yesterday about the latest slowdown in the Senate - a Republican senator using one of the Senate's little-known rules to object to holding committee hearings during certain hours. Turns out it was Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), one of the chamber's most conservative lawmakers.
Burr took to the floor around lunch to declare he had "no personal objection to continuing" but there was an objection from Republicans.
Yesterday GOP aides told us it was not a coordinated leadership effort.
It's a bit complicated, but Burr was objecting to a standard unanimous consent request from Sen. Carl Levin to hold a hearing outside of the hours the Senate rules allow. This happens all the day, and senators agree to waive the rule that says committee hearings can't be held until two hours after convening business, or after 2 p.m.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new survey by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) continuing to lead his unknown Democratic rivals -- but at the same time, he continues to be a vulnerable incumbent.
Burr's approval rating among registered voters is only 35%, with a disapproval rating of 37%, and a whole 28% undecided -- he is neither popular nor unpopular, and instead has not really made any impression with the voters. Against a generic Democrat, Burr has 41% to the generic Dem's 39%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), the single most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator this year, has a message going into the campaign in his swing state: It's impossible for anybody to get to his right.
Burr is facing a primary challenge from two Republican candidates, Asheboro Councilman Eddie Burks and businessman Brad Jones. Burr is heavily favored to win his primary, and he told the Raleigh News & Observer that he's not too worried about it. "The fact is it is impossible for any candidate to get to the right of me from an ideological standpoint of my record," said Burr. "That is where anybody would have to attempt to make any progress in a Republican primary."
This is an interesting comment from a Senator in a swing state that narrowly voted for Barack Obama in 2008. As we've noted before, Burr's poll numbers show that he is neither popular nor unpopular, but that many voters still don't have an impression of him after the last five years of his service. Don't be surprised if the Democrats use this quote a lot, in order to introduce him to moderate voters.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Cal Cunningham, a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Senate in North Carolina, is now seeking to make reform of the filibuster an issue in his campaign.
In an e-mail sent out to his campaign's supporter list, Cunningham lambastes incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr for holding up health care reform. But he says the real problem comes from the Senate's broken processes:
But the real travesty is that an outdated Senate procedural rule, the filibuster, empowers a few dozen obstructionists like Richard Burr to effectively guarantee the special interest groups get their way.
It's time to end the wheeling and dealing that smothers good ideas and stifles real progress in Washington.
It's time to end the filibuster in its current form. If you agree, sign my online petition to tell our elected and party leaders it's time to change the filibuster.
The full e-mail is available after the jump.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Next week when President Obama marks the one-year anniversary of signing the stimulus bill into law, Democrats will showcase the Republicans who were against the Recovery Act funds, before they were for them being funneled to their home states.
TPMDC has learned the party will mount an orchestrated effort from the Democratic National Committee, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to go after Republicans who voted against the$787 billion economic stimulus plan but take credit for its spending back home.
Obama signed the measure Feb. 17, 2009 with votes from just three Republicans (one of those GOPers, Sen. Arlen Specter, became a Democrat) but members of the opposing party have campaigned on stimulus projects.
A Democratic source told me the party will force both incumbents up for reelection in the fall and Republican challengers to say on the record if they support the stimulus plan, which the White House in tandem will showcase as having created jobs.
"Look for us to be all over this story," the source said.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)Karl Rove will be hitting the political trail again, with an upcoming fundraiser for Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC).
Rove will headline the fundraiser in Raleigh on January 28. Back when Rove was a top adviser to then-President George W. Bush, he helped recruit Burr to run for the Senate seat that John Edwards vacated in 2004 when he ran for the presidency. Look for the North Carolina Democrats to use this Rove appearance to tie Burr to the unpopular Bush administration.
Burr is expected to be a top Democratic target in 2010. Burr's state has become a swing state after years as a Southern Republican area. It was narrowly carried by Barack Obama in 2008, and in another key election that year, Democrat Kay Hagan unseated incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole with a nine-point victory. Burr's approval ratings have been low in recent polls, but so have his disapproval ratings. It's not that he's unpopular, but many voters don't have an opinion at all about him, which will make his fate largely dependent on the overall political climate.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new survey of North Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) finds first-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr in a vulnerable position headed into 2010, with narrow leads over three unknown Democratic challengers.
Burr leads former state Senator and Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham by 45%-36%; he leads attorney Kenneth Lewis by 43%-37%; and he leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by 42%-37%. Against a generic Democrat, he has a statistically insignificant edge of only 42%-41%. The margin of error is ±4%.
Burr's approval rating is 35%, with 37% disapproval. As we've noted before, Burr's problem is not that he's unpopular -- it's that he hasn't made much of an impression at all with the voters, and his fate will rest heavily on the nature of the overall political cycle.
For all three Democrats, anywhere from 69%-81% of North Carolina voters don't have an opinion of them. And in the case of Kenneth Lewis, PPP's Tom Jensen speculates that respondents might have him confused with the very unpopular Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis. Jensen writes: "Lewis may need to invest down the road in some direct mail or Charlotte tv time to make sure voters in the area know he's not that Ken Lewis!"
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new survey by Public Policy Polling (D) finds that Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) continues to have lackluster approval ratings -- but that his prospects for re-election are simultaneously pretty good, a sign that the political climate is not good for Democrats in this 2010 race.
Burr's approval rating is only 36%, with 35% disapproval and a whopping 29% undecided -- as we've noted before, it's not that Burr is unpopular, but that he hasn't actually made a real impression with the voters during his term. In a way, this makes him a good barometer of the overall political climate in his state.
At the same time, Burr leads a generic Democrat by 45%-34%, and holds double-digit leads over six different named Democrats.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new survey of North Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) continues to show that Sen. Richard Burr is on shaky ground, with very low approval ratings -- but nevertheless, he is still able to lead potential 2010 Democratic opponents for now.
Burr's approval rating is only 38%, which would usually be considered abysmal for an incumbent. Interestingly, his disapproval is only 32%, with a whopping 29% undecided. Burr leads a generic Democrat by 45%-38%, and has various leads over named Democrats. For example, he leads Sec. of State Elaine Marshall -- who recently filed paperwork to create a campaign committee, but has not yet formally announced a candidacy -- by 42%-31%.
It's not that he's unpopular -- it's that in the time since he was first elected in 2004, he has thus far failed to actually make an impression on the voters.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)
