2010 elections

Broad And Deep: A Quick Look The GOP's Big Victory In The House

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 8:58AM

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) with members of the GOP leadership

The midwest was the key to the GOP's 60-plus seat victory in the House of Representatives. Where Democrats were able to stave off losses in the west and northeast and even parts of the south, they were creamed by upwards of two dozen seats in states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, where the recession has taken a brutal toll.

Dems had a significant majority going in to yesterday's election, so the greatest losses were suffered by junior members. Most of them were fully expected. But when you lose this many seats, invariably some surprises get swept along with the tide.

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2010 elections

Two Virginia Dems Go Down -- And It Could Get Worse

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:56PM

Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA)

It's looking like a bloodbath tonight for Virginia Democrats, with two incumbent Congressmen already going down to defeat -- and possibly more on the way.

The Associated Press reports that Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher of VA-09, who was first elected in 1982, has lost re-election to Republican Morgan Griffith in this southwest Virginia district, after many years of its voters splitting their ticket between Boucher and Republican candidates.

Meanwhile, freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello (D) of VA-05, who upset Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in 2008, has lost to Republican Robert Hurt.

That's not all: Two other freshman Dems, Glenn Nye and Gerry Connolly, both of whom picked up seats from the Republicans in 2008, are currently trailing in their seats. With 44% of precincts reporting in VA-02, Nye trails Republican Scott Rigell by 53%-43%. In VA-11, Connolly trails his 2008 Republican opponent Keith Fimian by a narrower 50%-48%, with 30% of precincts reporting.

Late Update: ABC and CBS have called VA-02 for Rigell. That's three Democrats losing in Virginia, with a possible fourth on the way.

2010 elections

Surprise! Meet The House Dems Who Used To Be Safe -- But Aren't Anymore

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 8:57AM

Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO)

Republicans are widely expected to make significant gains this November, possibly, perhaps even probably, taking back control of the House of Representatives. This is to be expected to some extent, as the Democrats enjoyed two big wave elections in 2006 and 2008, and many of those House members won't be coming back. But there are some other Dems, who in many other cycles would be safe bets to be reelected, that have unexpectedly ended up in tough races after longer tenures in Congress.

[TPM'S TOP 10 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH]

The House members we're talking about are folks who have been easily re-elected in past cycles, often without significant opposition, in districts that were leaning Republican in other ways, such as in the presidential vote. But in a year where the GOP has the wind at their backs, these Dems are now being aggressively targeted, and facing tough races.

"You always have some Congressmen who have been shaky," said Professor Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia, in an interview with TPM. "You think of John Spratt. Look at his district, where it is in South Carolina, he's never really that safe. Ike Skelton [of Missouri] -- they're just never that safe. They get a lot of passes, and their incumbency and their chairmanships help them. But every now and then the sun and the moon and the stars align just right and they're in trouble. It doesn't mean they'll lose, but they'll have close and competitive races, anyway."

So let's take a look at some of the Dems who have been in Congress for awhile -- and somewhat surprisingly, will have to work hard this year to stay there. This list is not exhaustive of all suddenly-vulnerable Dems, nor is it meant to imply that all or even any of them are guaranteed to lose. But it does give a sense of the current hostile environment and lack of Democratic enthusiasm -- especially as it spreads to districts that have been becoming more Republican underneath their occupants' feet.

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