
At a public event in Albany, N.Y., Tuesday, President Obama went counterintuitive. Bloated government is a phenomenon of Republican leadership, he noted, and it's helped them weather economic downturns in a way he hasn't been able to.
"[A]fter there was a recession under Ronald Reagan, government employment went way up. It went up after the recessions under the first George Bush and the second George Bush," he said. "So each time there was a recession with a Republican president, compensated -- we compensated by making sure that government didn't see a drastic reduction in employment. The only time government employment has gone down during a recession has been under me. So I make that point just so you don't buy into this whole bloated government argument that you hear. And frankly, if Congress had said yes to helping states put teachers back to work and put the economy before our politics, then tens of thousands more teachers in New York would have a job right now. That is a fact. And that would mean not only a lower unemployment rate, but also more customers for business."
As we've noted before, the numbers back this up completely.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)An enduring impediment to President Obama's economic recovery has been the erosion of public-sector employment, driven largely by layoffs at the state and local levels. As we've noted before, this wasn't a problem recent Republican presidents faced. Total government expenditures (federal, state and local) grew under Reagan and the two Bush presidents much more than it has under President Obama.
But how is that reflected in Obama's economic record? The economics blog Calculated Risk points us toward private- and public-sector payrolls under both Presidents George W. Bush and Obama, both of whom faced tough economies early in their first terms (though of wildly varied levels of severity).
We've adjusted these to reflect percent change, to account for population growth. The basic story is that Obama's private-sector recovery has outpaced Bush's, but Obama's been hobbled by government cutbacks that Bush never faced. Quite the opposite, in fact.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)If President Obama's economic recovery continues apace, and his re-election prospects grow along with it, it won't be because Congress went out of its way to help. As we noted Tuesday, Obama's economy has benefitted from less of Washington's largesse than did crypto-Keynesian Ronald Reagan's. But this is actually part of a broader pattern. Recently, Republican presidents have benefited from accommodating Congress during times of economic weakness, while Democratic Presidents Clinton and Obama watched Congress suddenly grow stingy under their watch.
That pattern has significant implications for how these presidents weathered economic downturns politically, and to a great extent explains the political troubles Obama's faced in his first term.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Last week we brought you this chart, demonstrating that the unemployment rate under President Obama is coming down fairly quickly -- though not as quickly as it did under President Reagan in the months before he won a landslide re-election in 1984.
Here's a major reason why.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Will recent months of economic good news, including today's Department of Labor unemployment report, redound to President Obama's political benefit in 2012?
If the GOP's messaging schizophrenia over the last several weeks is any indication, they seem to think it could. And there are real precedents for this effect. When President Reagan's economy bottomed out and began to improve, it did so early and quickly enough in his term that he pronounced it "morning in America" and won a landslide re-election.
Here's how President Obama's recovery looks by comparison.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)This post was updated at 1:15 p.m.
On Wednesday, Treasury Department officials briefed reporters on the current state of the economy, including official revisions showing that GDP grew faster in the last quarter of 2011 than previously estimated, and that savings are indeed keeping pace with renewed consumer spending.
The officials stressed they don't interpret the positive news of the past few months as definitive signs of a blooming economic recovery.
But one senior official made a key comparison -- one that provides insight into the potential magnitude of recent developments.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)As the U.S. government and governments in Europe respond to the global economic slump with conservative austerity measures, it's easy to forget that the overwhelming professional economic consensus is that depressed countries that can afford to should be doing the opposite -- ramping up government purchases of goods and services and putting off the budget cuts and tax increases for a few years.
This isn't even close to what's happening. And as the space between what these experts think should happen and what global elites are actually doing grows, the experts' forecast is becoming more and more pessimistic.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A three-judge panel on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals -- comprised of two judges appointed by Republican presidents and one by a Democrat -- upheld the constitutionality of a key section of President Obama's health care law in a ruling released Tuesday.
Senior Judge Laurence Silberman and Judge Harry Edwards ruled to uphold the law -- specifically the mandate that requires Americans to purchase health insurance -- on the merits. Judge Brett Kavanaugh dissented from their ruling, but he, too, would have ruled against the plaintiffs seeking to overturn the mandate. His opinion argued that federal courts lack jurisdiction to enjoin the mandate, which functions similarly to a tax.
Silberman, a conservative all-star, was first nominated to the D.C. Circuit by Ronald Reagan, and became a senior judge when Kavanaugh -- a George W. Bush nominee -- was confirmed to the court. Edwards was nominated by Jimmy Carter.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)At the request of the Senate Finance Committee, the Congressional Budget Office has produced a report analyzing trends in the distribution of household income from 1979 until 2007 -- just before the economy fell off a cliff.
The results will be familiar to economists and policy wonks, but they're eye-popping. These charts and graphs tell a story of a massive income growth in the Reagan and post-Reagan years, and particularly during the George W. Bush administration -- but only for the famous 1 percenters.
As Herman Cain has climbed in the polls, lawmakers and other GOP presidential candidates have had to contend more seriously with his ideas. One of the main attacks his opponents have leveled against his 9-9-9 tax plan is that it won't fly in Congress.
True story. Today's GOP leaders aren't willing to embrace the plan, which would wipe out the current tax code and replace it with a nine percent tax on individual income, a nine percent tax on corporate income, and a nine percent sales tax.
As noted here, here, and here, the plan has a lot of problems. It's deeply regressive. As businesses passed on the cost of their share of the tax to consumers, it would hit low and middle income earners exceptionally hard at a time when the economy desperately needs more, not less, consumption. And part of it's probably unconstitutional, at least as Cain envisions it.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama is standing by his concession Monday in an interview with ABC News that Americans aren't better off than they were four years ago before the near collapse of the financial system and a deep economic recession -- both of which occurred at the tail end of President George W. Bush's term.
At a fundraiser in Dallas, Obama returned to the point he made in the interview, that Americans are still suffering through hard economic times.
"Of course they're still hurting," he said. "Every night I get letters and emails from families who are struggling."
He listed among his successes the auto bailout and Wall Street reform, noting Republican opposition to both.
The President doesn't regret acknowledging the truth, namely, that the economy is still flagging and is unlikely to quickly rebound any time soon, White House spokesman Jay Carney also told reporters Tuesday while traveling to Texas on Air Force One.
"It would be wrong to somehow suggest that the hole created by that recession was not very deep ... or that somehow we'll emerge from it overnight," Carney said.
But Carney also noted that "four years ago was 2007 -- prior to the point where the policies of the previous administration plunged us into the greatest recession since the Great Depression."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)After President Obama unveiled his jobs and deficit reduction plans, he took to the road to draw a contrast between himself and the Republican politicians who want to end his political career. Obama's proposes to spend money now on hiring people and cutting taxes temporarily to spur further job growth, and pay for it in just over a year, in large part by raising taxes on wealthy Americans.
The Republican vision -- phasing out safety net programs like Medicare in order to maintain low tax rates on the same group of affluent people -- is far less popular. So in their own tried and true way, Republicans recast Obama's plan for "shared sacrifice" as "the largest tax increase in history."
What a difference! But also untrue.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Ronald Reagan's chief domestic policy adviser took Texas governor Rick Perry to the woodshed Friday for recent controversial statements -- in particular about his suggestion that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would be committing treason by printing money to boost economic growth.
"Rick Perry's an idiot, and I don't think anyone would disagree with that," Bruce Bartlett said on CNN's American Morning.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)It doesn't have a name, but it probably should: the axiom that when budgets and taxes and debt increasingly dominate politics in Washington, utterances of the words "Reagan" and "Thatcher" climb exponentially.
As detailed at length here, high-profile GOP presidential hopefuls constantly extol the former British Prime Minister. That's true whether it's to bash President Obama, or burnish their own conservative bona fides, or both.
And, of course, Ronald Reagan's decades-long reign as the Patron Saint of conservatism never really lets up, no matter what the issue du jour in DC.
But two days after Congressional Republicans took a pass on a $4 trillion fiscal reform grand bargain because Democrats insisted that a minority of the deficit reduction come from new tax revenue, it's worth reviewing the Thatcher and Reagan records on spending, taxes, and debt -- and recalling that the transatlantic Tory twins didn't mind spending money, and weren't nearly as averse to tax increases as are their idolators in the U.S. Congress today.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Newt Gingrich is responding to the continuing wave of staff resignations from his campaign -- saying it's simply because he's just too different of a politician. Also, he's like Reagan.
Reuters reports:
"Philosophically, I am very different from normal politicians, and normal consultants found that very hard to deal with," Gingrich said in a speech to the Atlanta Press Club.
"We have big ideas. I just think that's part of how you campaign. You talk to the American people about big things."
On the other hand, Gingrich also noted that Ronald Reagan himself encountered some turbulence during the 1980 campaign, when 13 of his aides quit the campaign: "If I had to choose Reaganomics or 13 staffers quitting, I think for the average working American, Reaganomics was a much better deal."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)One theme of Rick Santorum's CPAC speech was that President Obama has his priorities all wrong, because he "doesn't believe America is exceptional," does see America as a "force for disruption, and even evil," and won't "say that jihadism is evil."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Newt Gingrich took the stage at CPAC today, and both chastised Democrats for going around talking about how much they love Ronald Reagan.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)An effort spearheaded by Republicans to repeal the new health care law collapsed Wednesday evening after the Senate refused to ignore its adverse impact on the deficit.
By a vote of 47-51, the Senate sustained an objection to the legislation on the grounds that it does not comply with congressional budget rules. Because a full repeal of the law is projected to increase the deficit, waiving that point of order would have required 60 votes.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A federal district court judge in Florida ruled today that a key provision in the new health care law is unconstitutional, and that the entire law must be voided.
Roger Vinson, a Ronald Reagan appointee, agreed with the 26 state-government plaintiffs that Congress exceeded its authority by passing a law penalizing individuals who do not have health insurance.
"I must reluctantly conclude that Congress exceeded the bounds of its authority in passing the Act with the individual mandate," Vinson writes. "Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional and not severable, the entire Act must be declared void."
[Emphasis added]
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) will be headlining a big event to mark the late President Ronald Reagan's 100th birthday: Delivering the keynote speech at the Reagan Ranch Center's commemoration, sponsored by the conservative Young America's Foundation. Oh, and former Vice President Dick Cheney will be there, too!
CNN reports:
Her speech on February 4th will "draw parallels to today while calling for young people to continue the Reagan revolution into 2012 and beyond," according to the release.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney will speak at the end of the celebrations on Saturday February 5th.
Reagan's centenary is turning into a big occasion for possible 2012 Republican candidates -- many others will be attending a mega-fundraiser for the state Republican Party in Reagan's original home of Illinois.
This should be a good gig for Palin. For one thing, the phrase "Morning in America" can fit on the average human hand.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)An awful lot of potential Republican presidential candidates will be having one of their first public outings soon in Illinois -- where the state GOP will hold a mega-fundraiser to celebrate the 100th birthday of the great Ronald Reagan.
Roll Call reports:
The fundraising event will be held in Chicago on Feb. 5, the day before the late president's birthday. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) will sign copies of one of his books before the dinner, and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum have confirmed they will attend, according to an invitation to the event. The party also invited Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and South Dakota Sen. John Thune. The 12 Republican Members of the state's 112th Congressional delegation will be special guests.
If you think this celebration will be wild, just wait for April 5, 2051 -- the centennial of Bedtime for Bonzo.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Wisconsin Republican Senate hopeful Ron Johnson had a deer-in-headlights moment in a recent interview with the Green Bay Press Gazette.
Asked to explain his jobs plan, Johnson banged away at the GOP mantra: cutting spending, regulation, etc. That didn't satisfy the editors.
"There's no real jobs plan?" one interviewer asked.
"I would say bring fiscal discipline to the federal government," Johnson replied. "We've got to curb spending."
That didn't satisfy his interviewers.
When "I Want Your Money" hits theaters today, it will likely be hailed by Republicans eyeing Congressional control as exposing the Obama administration for being fiscally reckless. Already, the creator Ray Griggs has made the rounds on Fox News, which heaped praise on the filmmaker for including Fox contributors in the documentary.
But there's one big problem -- a bunch of the facts don't add up. The most egregious omission is failing to mention that Ronald Reagan, who is depicted as a fiscal hero in the film, raised taxes.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Christine O'Donnell isn't sweating the national Republicans who won't be helping her Delaware Senate bid this fall, because, after all, Ronald Reagan was once a pariah too.
"They also said that Ronald Reagan wasn't electable," O'Donnell said this morning on ABC's "Good Morning America. She called the GOP's whisper campaign against her "Republican cannibalism."
The perennial candidate who has never held political office said she doesn't need the NRSC's help, and believes she can win by raising just $1 million. The Tea Party Express made an appeal to supporters today for cash to help O'Donnell after the GOP's abandonment.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Using catchy slogans and scary rhetoric, the Republicans have done a masterful job of painting themselves as the party of austerity and fiscal discipline. "Where are the jobs?" "Runaway deficits." "Government takeover." After years of profligacy, they say, they've gotten religion, and can be trusted to run the show once again. But scratch lightly and, just below that veneer, you'll find that nothing has changed at all.
"I've admitted that Republicans made their fair share of mistakes when they had the majority in this institution," said House Minority Leader John Boehner at his weekly press conference yesterday morning. "But I think our members have learned their lessons."
The lesson, though, is that Republicans were right all along--tax cuts can cure all that ails the country--and that they just fell into a brief trap of allowing too much discretionary spending.
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If stereotypes held true, you would think that the Republicans would be the ones telling folks to turn that blasted music down. But this year -- and indeed in many past election cycles -- it's the GOP that has been attracting cease-and-desist letters for pilfering music against the artists' wishes. So let's take a look at some of the more notable GOP music fails from this cycle, and cycles past.
Senate candidate Chuck DeVore (R-CA) got burned for using for using altered-lyric version of Don Henley's "The Boys of Summer" and "All She Wants To Do Is Dance" for his campaign's Web ads. David Byrne is suing Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) for using "Road To Nowhere" in a Web ad during his previous Republican Senate primary fight, and of course, as we reported yesterday, Rush cut to the chase and told Senate nominee Rand Paul (R-KY) to stop playing "Tom Sawyer" and "The Spirit of Radio."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)Senate hopefuls Mark Kirk (R) and Dick Blumenthal (D) will likely be dogged from now until November by accusations that they embellished their military backgrounds. But as galling as their transgressions may be, they're part of a rich, scandalous tradition of American pols exaggerating--or simply lying about--their service records in front of the right crowds, when they think they can get away with it.
Herewith, our favorite examples of politicians getting caught red handed fibbing about their war records.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The late President Ronald Reagan is now the star of his own biographical comic book, which was released this week.
"I think the crux of the book will be the assessment of whether Reagan was simply at the right place and time when the Soviet Union fell," said author Don Smith. "Or was he one of the shrewdest occupants of the White House?"
It should be noted that this comic is neither a piece of Reagan sycophancy, nor is it political satire (like the recent Michele Bachmann comics, produced by a group of her detractors in Minnesota). The publisher, Bluewater Comics, specializes in making biographical comics about major public figures, both in and out of politics: Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, Ellen DeGeneres, Lady Gaga and others -- even Bo Obama.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Ronald Reagan Presidential Library has come up with a new way for Reaganites to bask in the glory of Ronaldus Magnus: A free iPhone application!
I just spent the last few minutes downloading and fiddling around with the app. It has a gallery of pictures of Reagan in all his glory, for an admirer to cycle through with only the swipe of a finger (such as the pic shown above). There is also Reagan playing mini-golf in the Oval Office, Reagan visiting with the Pope, Reagan with his horse, Reagan in front of an American flag, and other such glorious memories.
There is also ready access to the library's YouTube account, to watch Reagan's 1980 Republican acceptance speech, his 1981 inaugural address, his 1961 speech opposing the creation of Medicare, and other great moments in Reagan history.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A Republican operative tells us that if the Republican National Committee ends up passing the so-called "purity" resolution - which would cut off party support for candidate that violate three or or more out of ten key conservative policy positions -- it's unlikely that party campaign committees will actually abide by it.
"The litmus test puts too little emphasis on people's most pressing concerns of spending and taxes and therefore cannot be considered an effective tool to fully judge a candidate," the source said. "Because of this, its doubtful this will be a major factor in candidate support."
The resolution officially calls for cutting off support for candidates from the Republican National Committee. But another important question with this resolution is whether the party's other campaign committees -- such as the NRCC and the NRSC, among others -- would obey the edict to exclude candidates who don't measure up. As far as this one GOP operative says, probably not.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)The Republican National Committee could be on the verge of imposing a strict purity test on GOP candidates and officeholders, if a proposed resolution passes at their upcoming meeting in January: If you disagree with the party line on three or more out of a list of ten key issues, no money or official party support for you.
The resolution, officially called "Proposed RNC Resolution on Reagan's Unity Principle for Support of Candidates" draws its standard through a literal interpretation of an old saying of the Gipper's -- that someone who agreed with him 80% of the time is his friend, not his 20% enemy. Thus, this resolution sets 80% as a floor for support of GOP issues.
The resolution could set up a new problem for chairman Michael Steele. Earlier this year, he successfully turned back a symbolic measure that called upon the Democratic Party to rename itself the "Democrat Socialist Party." This latest resolution -- coming after the NY-23 special election, in which moderate GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava was forced out in favor of a third-party Conservative, who then lost to the Democrat -- could have real material impacts.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)For all her 2012 denials, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is sure sounding like a presidential candidate in her fundraising emails.
Palin (R) asks supporters for up to $5,000 in donations, and anything over $100 gets a free, signed copy of "Going Rogue."
She says Ronald Reagan "showed us the way" and "charted the course for us," and goes on to quote C.S. Lewis:
C. S. Lewis once wrote: "We all want progress, but if you are on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road." We need to get back on the right road. In order to progress, we must return to our founding principles of limited government, fiscal responsibility, and strong national defense.
Palin says she'll help commonsense candidates "regardless of party" and asks for fundraising help with a peppy message:
"We won't let anyone tell us to sit down and shut up. We're going to stand up, stand together, and fight for what's right!"
Palin's full email after the jump.
The new Republican National Committee Web site has been derided for its "GOP Heroes" section -- which teaches us that almost all of the great Republicans lived in the 1800's, and about half of them were black -- but there's another illustrious name on the list: Ronaldus Magnus.
The site's page on Ronald Reagan includes this citation of the party's great hero, giving him a stylized name we might see on a Roman emperor:
Our country has to decide, said Ronaldus Magnus, "whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether to abandon the American Revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capital can plan our lives better than we can plan them ourselves."
And to think that the GOP makes fun of the Democrats for allegedly worshiping Obama.
We've called the RNC office for comment on how this got there, giving them the benefit of the doubt that maybe this is a product of those hackers we've been hearing about as a result of the site's security problems. They have not gotten back to us yet.

Late Update: The page has now been edited, removing Reagan's Latin throne name. It now simply says, "Our country has to decide, said Reagan..."
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