
After a series of public embarrassments, and faced with polling data that suggests the GOP agenda is driving women toward the Democratic Party, Republicans may be tacitly acknowledging that kowtowing to their conservative base in an election year has some ugly ramifications.
But that doesn't mean they're chastened. They're just hoping everyone forgets.
Congressional Republicans abandoned their push to roll back the Obama administration's contraception guarantee for female employees weeks ago. But now they're hoping that they can wipe the crux of what Democrats have termed the GOP "war on women" off the books entirely.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republicans need to "get off" the issue of contraception and "fix" the perception that the party has spurned women, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) declared Sunday.
The party's 2008 standard-bearer, now a Mitt Romney surrogate, was asked by David Gregory on NBC's Meet The Press whether he thinks that "there is something of a war on women among Republicans."
"I think we have to fix that," McCain said. "I think that there is a perception out there, because of the way that this whole contraception issue played out. We need to get off of that issue, in my view. I think we ought to respect the right of women to make choices in their lives, and make that clear, and get back on to what the American people really care about: jobs and the economy."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)From one top GOP senator openly lamenting the fallout of the ongoing fight over contraception, to the author of the controversial legislation at the heart of that fight effectively conceding defeat in the upper chamber, signs mounted Tuesday that suggest Senate Republicans want to put the birth control controversy to bed.
"You know, I think we've got as many votes as I think there were to get on that," Senate GOP Conference Vice Chairman Roy Blunt told TPM Tuesday afternoon after a weekly Capitol briefing. "I think the House side may take some further action. That debate will go on for a long time, though I don't know that there's anything else to happen in the Senate in the near future."
The concession marks a departure for the GOP leadership, which as recently as last week insisted that Republicans were on the right side of the issue and would fight on.
Last Thursday, after his amendment was narrowly tabled 51-48, Blunt vowed that, "The fight is not over." He had maintained that he wants to tack it onto legislation the president cannot veto. But on Tuesday, after a meeting with his caucus, he dialed down expectations for any further action in the Senate.
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Top Republicans are working overtime to mask palpable concern within their party over a Thursday Senate vote to roll back an Obama administration rule requiring most employers to provide workers with contraceptive coverage in their health benefits.
Yet despite a growing sense that the GOP has veered into politically dangerous territory, a full-scale retreat would embarrass the party, and alienate a powerful segment of its conservative base. And that's left Republicans little choice but to press ahead, illustrating the dangers they'll face if election year politicking turns further from the economy toward culture war fights that voters thought were settled decades ago.
The measure in question was authored by Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) -- a member of the GOP's leadership team -- and would allow employers who provide health benefits to deny coverage of particular services -- including contraception -- for reasons of conscience. Blunt introduced the legislation at the height of the contretemps over the Obama administration's contraception rule, and Republicans pushed hard to secure a vote for it as an amendment to an unrelated transportation bill. But according to a top Democratic aide briefed on negotiations between Republican and Democratic leaders, something changed in recent days -- and in the end Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) took it upon himself to force the issue.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The GOP's ongoing push to allow employers to deny contraceptive -- or any -- health care coverage has Democrats in an amusing position: outraged that the Republican party has reignited the culture wars, and simultaneously salivating over what they believe is a deadly GOP political misstep.
In the days ahead, Senate Republicans, led by Missouri's Roy Blunt, will vote on a controversial amendment to pending transportation legislation -- one that would enshrine employers' right to limit health care benefits for moral reasons.
On a conference call with reporters Friday morning, top Senate Democrats were of two minds: incensed that the GOP is pushing a non-germane issue so hard, and also ecstatic about it.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)You'd think the GOP's ongoing, dogged push to allow any employer to deny female employees contraceptive coverage is an indication that Republicans take a strong stance on the issue.
But it's not. On Tuesday afternoon, I asked Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) whether he could support a Republican presidential candidate who had required religious institutions to provide female employees with contraceptive coverage.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Congressional Republicans haven't gotten over the last government shutdown fight -- perhaps because it wasn't a clear win. They're probing FEMA's accounting practices in the last week of September, suggesting the agency manipulated its disaster relief fund to help Democrats avoid a political fight with Republicans. But FEMA officials were on the record, both publicly and in private briefings with members of both parties, about the tools they were using to keep themselves in the black through the fiscal year. So what's this really all about?
Recall that the September government shutdown fight centered on the GOP's demand that there should be matching budget cuts to make up for funneling emergency money to FEMA's disaster relief fund.
FEMA originally expected the account to be drained a few days before the end of the fiscal year on September 30. To keep its operations across the country in motion Congress was prepared to appropriate the agency $1 billion in bridge money to carry it into October...except for that pesky disagreement about offsets! Republicans insisted on paying for it by nixing a popular and effective hybrid vehicle incentive. Democrats refused, both on principle and because the specific manufacturing program on the chopping block was a successful one. Neither party was prepared to cave. But with the deadline only days away, FEMA moved aggressively to shore up its fund and announced it could get by without any emergency help from Congress and the shutdown was averted.
Republicans say something fishy was going on.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democrats are hoping Republicans' more conciliatory spirit displayed Monday night to avert a government shutdown over disaster aid is a sign of shifting political winds after August's debt showdown that resulted in Standard & Poor downgrading the nation's creditworthiness.
After the vote last night to fund the Federal Emergency Management Agency through November, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) told TPM he hopes the Senate's agreement to pass a compromise bill sends a message to Tea Party House GOP members that the do-or-die brinkmanship has got to go.
"I think we were less close to the precipice this time," he said. "I think there was a little bit more anxiety on the part of the GOP to go there, and I hope it sends a message back to the House and the Tea Party that the Senate is not going to be amenable to this stuff anymore."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A big part of politics is coming up with catchy slogans and phrases so that voters draw conclusions that help your party. They run the gamut from Barack Obama's "Yes we can!" to Sarah Palin's "death panels."
The flipside of that is that you have to avoid saddling yourself with unflattering slogans and catch phrases. A bad gaffe will stick to a politician like flypaper -- sometimes for years. These buzzwords and catchphrases bubble up into the political discourse all the time. Most of them dissipate harmlessly, but a few attach themselves to their subjects like stink on, well, chickencrap.
Here's our list of the top five political catch phrases of 2010 -- the good, the bad, and the ugly.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Missouri Senate delegation will remain divided in 2011, as tonight Republican Rep. Roy Blunt defeated Democrat Robin Carnahan to fill the seat being vacated by Sen. Kit Bond.
In a normal year, Carnahan would have stood a very good chance of defeating Blunt, whose stock is low in Missouri after years of getting cozy in Washington and after his son Matt's disastrous single term as governor.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Examples of female politicians questioning their male rivals' manhood are about a dime a dozen at this point. Christine O'Donnell told her primary opponent Mike Castle to get his "man-pants" on. Sharron Angle told Harry Reid to "man up" and gut Social Security. Democrat Robin Carnahan told her Missouri Senate rival Roy Blunt to repeal his own health care..."and man up." Sarah Palin said Arizona Governor Jan Brewer has "the cojones" that to tackle immigration reform that Barack Obama could use -- just one of many times she emasculated some of her enemies: "impotent, limp, and gutless reporters" and Republicans who won't "man up" and support the Tea Party.
Now one of the men on the receiving end of this phallic fusillade is turning the tables.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A newly released PPP poll suggests things may be tightening up in the Missouri Senate race between Republican Rep. Roy Blunt and Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Blunt, who has maintained a lead throughout recent months' polling, is found to be leading by only five points, 46%-41%, with Constitution Party candidate Jerry Beck and Libertarian Jonathan Dine both polling at 3%.
This PPP poll was conducted for the Carnahan campaign.
When PPP looked at this race back in mid-August, Blunt led Carnahan 45%-38%, with Beck earning 5% and Dine polling at 3%. Two polls from October 5 saw Blunt leading more comfortably in the race: a CNN/Time poll gave him a 53%-40% lead, while a Rasmussen survey had him on top 51%-43%.
The margin of error for the latest survey is ±3.9 percentage points.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democratic candidate Robin Carnahan has a new TV ad in the Missouri Senate race, trying to tear down Republican Rep. Roy Blunt's bonafides on the issues of government spending that he's been pushing in the race. The message: He's a "pork-meister."
"What do this museum for teapots, this swimming pool, and this center studying potatoes have in common?" the announcer asks. "Thanks to Roy Blunt, they've been getting your tax dollars. That's right. Blunt's been a leader in allowing earmarks to get out of control. He's been called a 'prodigious pork-meister' for earmarks that cost you $20 billion a year. That's a lot of potatoes. Roy Blunt: The very worst of Washington."
The candidate then closes with her message: "I'm Robin Carnahan. I approved this message, because I'm for banning earmarks once and for all."
The TPM Poll Average gives gives Blunt a lead of 51.2%-44.0%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) has a new ad in the Missouri Senate race, that openly accuses his Democratic opponent, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, of corruptly enriching her family through her support of President Obama's policies
"They promised jobs. Instead we got generations of debt. Where'd our money go?" the ad says. "Ask Robin Carnahan. Her brother's wind farm got over a hundred million stimulus dollars. How? Robin Carnahan campaigned for Obama and the stimulus. Her brother lobbied for his special deal, and was a top Obama fundraiser. The payoff: Over a hundred million dollars. The Carnahans get a real windfall. We get the bill -- and no jobs."
The TPM Poll Average gives Blunt a lead of 51.2%-44.0%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new Rasmussen poll of the Missouri Senate race shows Republican Rep. Roy Blunt leading Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 52%-44%.
When Rasmussen last took a look at this contest on September 7, Blunt was on top of Carnahan 53%-43%. The TPM Poll Average finds the Republican nominee ahead 51.2%-44.0%.
The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.
For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democrat Robin Carnahan has a new ad in the Missouri Senate race, attacking Republican Roy Blunt as a Washington insider who is too connected to lobbyists for the current reform-minded, anti-incumbent environment.
The ad shows old video of Blunt on Fox News Sunday back in 2006, when the then-House Majority Whip was running for Majority Leader. Chris Wallace is shown bringing up Blunt's ties to Phillip Morris tobacco lobbyist money, and his ties to Jack Abramoff. "Are you the one to clean up the House?" Wallace asked. (Blunt later lost the leadership race to John Boehner, remained as Republican Whip, and gave up that post after the 2008 election.)
The Carnahan campaign really has hit on something phenomenal in this ad: A leading Republican was once criticized on Fox News!
The TPM Poll Average gives Blunt a lead of 50.6%-43.8%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Republican nominee for Senate in Missouri, Rep. Roy Blunt, is pulling away from his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan in the race for the Show Me State's open Senate seat. A poll from Rasmussen out today shows Blunt ahead 53-43, the latest in a series of polls that have shown the Republican could be settling into a comfortable lead.
The last Rasmussen poll -- which also happens to be the last public poll of the race -- showed Blunt ahead 54-41. That poll was conducted Aug. 23.
The TPM Poll Average shows Blunt ahead 50.6-43.8. Trendlines show Blunt with the momentum:
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new Rasmussen poll of the Missouri Senate race finds Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) with a 13-point lead over Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, 54%-41%.
The latest survey shows Blunt's largest lead in recent months' polling. The Republican had an 11-point advantage, 51%-40%, prior to leaners' preferred candidate being fleshed out with a follow-up question, after which Blunt's lead widened to 13 points. An August 10 Rasmussen survey had Blunt ahead by a slimmer seven points, 50%-43%. Rasmussen's late-July poll of the contest produced a six-point lead for the Republican, 49%-43%. All three surveys have a margin of error of ±4.0 percentage points.
The TPM Poll Average finds Blunt leading the race, 49.9%-42.8%.
For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.
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The race for Missouri's open Senate seat has to be one of the strangest out there this year. As Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R) slug it out, the backdrop of this battleground includes tea party spats, attacks over the bailout and Carnahan adopting the GOP positions on tax cuts for the rich.
Carnahan Thursday told voters at the Missouri State Fair she believes "now is not the time to raise taxes" for members of any income class, Huffington Post reported and confirmed with the campaign after catching the news on a St. Louis scribe's Twitter feed.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Missouri Senate candidate Robin Carnahan (D) slammed her opponent, Rep. Roy Blunt (R), in a new statewide television ad issued today over everything from banking deregulation to his leadership during the bailout negotiations in 2008 to the reported $1.6 million in contributions he took from Wall Street.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) has a slim lead over Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan according to a new poll from Rasmussen. Blunt leads Carnahan 50-43 in the survey, which was conduced Tuesday among 750 likely voters. The margin of error is 4%.
Past polling has also shown Blunt with a slight edge in the race. The last Rasmussen poll, from July 27, showed Blunt leading 49.-43. The TPM Poll Average for the contest shows Blunt in the lead 48.6-43.2.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)While yesterday's vote in Missouri against national health care reform will have little substantive impact on the federal health care reform law, Republicans nonetheless are hailing it as a major victory for their side. Voters in the Show Me State overwhelmingly voted to change Missouri statutes so the mandate for insurance coverage wouldn't apply, a symbolic gesture that everyone acknowledges is highly unlikely to have any effect on the federal health care reform law (absent major and unexpected changes to established legal precedent).
But don't tell RNC Chairman Michael Steele, House Minority Leader John Boehner or former Alaska governor Sarah Palin that.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Missouri Republicans today are preparing to celebrate the success of their ballot initiative on health care reform, which asks Missourians whether they want to roll back a critical element of the new law despite significant questions about the constitutionality of doing so.
But opponents of Prop C, the Republican-engineered ballot measure dubbed the "Health Care Freedom Act" that has more political significance than legal precedent behind it, number just in the hundreds and have scant help from the state's Democrats or even Gov. Jay Nixon. The teenage leader of the opposition, in fact, is managing a Facebook campaign against the ballot measure in between his job making sandwiches at Subway.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Tea party groups in Missouri, irate over Rep. Michele Bachmann's endorsement of Rep. Roy Blunt before tomorrow's Republican Senate primary, were planning a "major protest' against Blunt's campaign events over the weekend. Democrats and Blunt's main Republican primary opponent, Chuck Purgason, pushed for the protest as evidence Blunt was headed for trouble this fall in a general election matchup against Robin Carnahan (D).
But it didn't quite turn out that way.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republican Roy Blunt still leads Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Missouri Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen survey, which puts his lead at six points. Rep. Blunt -- the frontrunner in next Tuesday's GOP primary and the preferred Republican candidate of Michele Bachmann and Joe the Plumber -- leads Carnahan 49%-43% in the general election.
Those numbers are more favorable to Blunt than Rasmussen's last poll, which showed the Republican up only two points, but they're comparable to a Mason-Dixon poll from July 21, which showed Blunt ahead 48%-42%.
The TPM Poll Average for the race shows Blunt leading Carnahan 48.1%-43.2%. The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen survey is ±4.0 percentage points.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Tea party groups in Missouri are furious that national tea party icon, Rep. Michele Bachmann, endorsed the strong frontrunner for the Senate nomination Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO). Bachmann will join Blunt for a fundraiser and to make campaign calls in his St. Louis headquarters Saturday.
Given that Bachmann has emerged as a tea party hero and formed the brand-new Tea Party Caucus in Congress, the groups said "we were shocked" that she is backing Blunt since he voted for the TARP bailout funds and "Cash for Clunkers."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)Democrats are treating Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) like the certain Senate nominee this fall, but Blunt's rival in next week's Republican primary is getting an insurgent boost from Sam "Joe the Plumber" Wurzelbacher.
Wurzelbacher endorsed state lawmaker Chuck Purgason for the Aug. 3 Republican primary in Missouri, saying in a new television ad (which he paid for) that voters "do have a choice" in the race. He noted his emergence on the national stage and said he's made it his goal to "stop politicians like Obama." Wurzelbacher calls Blunt a "Washington insider," and Purgason a "man with character."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)When a president comes to town to raise money for a candidate in a tough race, it's usually the candidate who boasts of the commander-in-chief's support in the form of a positive television ad. But today, Rep. Roy Blunt is trying to use President Obama's fundraiser for his Senate rival Robin Carnahan against her, putting a new ad on television starring Obama and Carnahan and claiming she would be a "rubber stamp" for the Obama agenda.
Blunt's 30-second television ad up today includes video footage from Obama's event for Carhanan (D-MO) earlier this month. During the fundraiser, Obama told Missouri Democrats that he needed Carnahan in Washington to be "another vote" for his agenda. In many other races, Democrats have used the glowing Obama remarks in their own television ads to showcase that they'd be a partner to the president.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)For as long as there have been birthers, there have been politicians jumping on the birther bandwagon. And for as long as there have been politicians jumping on the birther bandwagon, there have been politicians who casually lean up against the birther bandwagon but run away before anyone sees them.
Here's TPM's roundup of politicians who have proven to be, for lack of a better term, birther-curious, before having to back things up a bit...
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Roy Blunt this quarter has outraised his rival Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan in the battle for the heartland.
Blunt (R-MO) pulled in $2.2 million in donations during the second quarter from April 1 to June 30, the St. Louis Post Dispatch reported. Carnahan raised $1.5 million during the same period. Blunt has $4.5 million in the bank and she has $3.6 million cash on hand. They are vying to replace retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The thirty seconds in which it seemed like Rep. Joe Barton's (R-TX) seat atop the Republicans on the Energy and Commerce Committee might be in question led to quite a bit of quiet jockeying on the Hill for the right to fill the chair. Given that Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) often touts the fact he's the "second-highest ranking Republican" on the committee all over the place and that he was named to that deputy spot behind Barton last February, one might have assumed that Blunt would have been next in line.
Republican aides weren't willing to say this on the record, but TPMDC learned that Blunt was never under consideration to get the spot. GOP leadership aides made it clear that Rep. Fred Upton (MI) was most likely to get the spot, with Rep. John Shimkus (IL) the contender behind Upton.
Birthers, militias, Tea Partiers -- it's hard to keep track of all the fringe groups that have popped up across the nation. But what to do when the extreme ideas of some of these groups bleed into the politics of public officeholders?
We've rounded up some of the right-wing House GOP members who may not have the national presence (or charisma) of a Michele Bachmann or a Steve King, but who certainly share their penchant for appealing to the outer limits of the political stratosphere...
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)--who's running to replace retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) in this year's midterm elections--has a position on health care reform that may prove unpopular, even with conservative voters. Blunt says adults with pre-existing conditions should not be prevented from suffering discrimination at the hands of insurance companies.
"Access for kids who have pre-existing conditions, who would be against that?" Blunt asked a group of health care professionals in Springfield, MO. "But access for adults who've done nothing to take care of themselves, who actually will have as I just described every incentive not to get insurance until the day that you know that you're going to have medical expenses--that's a very different kind of story."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)The new survey of Missouri by Public Policy Polling (D) finds Republican Rep. Roy Blunt narrowly ahead in the race for the open Senate seat of retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond. More importantly, however, other numbers show that the Democrats could have a very tough time ahead in this perennial swing state.
The numbers, among registered voters: Blunt 45%, Dem Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 41%, with a ±4.4% margin of error. Carnahan edges the other Republican candidate, state Sen. Chuck Purgason, by 42%-38%. The TPM Poll Average gives Blunt a lead of 47.0%-40.7% over Carnahan.
Below the surface, President Obama's approval rating is only 43%, with 52% disapproval. In addition, voters said by a 51%-42% margin that Republicans should work to repeal the health care bill. And voters oppose the health care bill by 54%-37%.
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Democratic operatives are targeting four House Republicans running for Senate - attempting to put them on the spot on whether they support the privatization of Social Security and cuts to Medicare as outlined in Rep. Paul Ryan's budget roadmap.
TPMDC has learned the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going after Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE), Rep. John Boozman (R-AR), Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) with releases to their local newspapers to ask where they stand on Republican plans to "kill Social Security."
The DSCC asks those members to take a stand on Ryan's plan to "privatize Social Security, cutting the tax rate on corporations, raising the retirement age to 70, and moving Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries to private insurance plans," asking if they side with Main Street or Wall Street.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)About a year ago, President Obama kick started the health care debate by hosting a bipartisan summit designed to build momentum for what he hoped would be his signature domestic policy initiative. The March 5, 2009 meeting was marked by pleasantries, and engagement between Republicans and Democrats--and that figured. Republicans were facing a popular President, pushing a popular initiative, in the aftermath of a big victory on the stimulus bill.
Fast forward to February 2010, and a lot of people in Washington--liberals, Democrats, even some pundits--are asking a question: Why is President Obama wasting his time with yet another summit. After all, he tried this a year ago and...well, just look how well that's paid off.
Times have changed, though. And now Democrats see an opportunity not so much for bipartisan co-operation, but for the President to magnify the differences between his own party, and the hell-bent-on-obstruction GOP. Whether they're right or wrong, though, the politics have simply changed. After a year of smears and bad faith, with Republicans locked into opposition, this month's summit simply won't be a redux of the same event.
Take Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA)--ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee. Here's what he said to Obama at the time: "I think you served with us in the Senate long enough to know that Max Baucus and I have a pretty good record of working out bipartisan things."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (3)In a further sign that Democratic fortunes have declined, a new Rasmussen poll of the Missouri Senate race shows Republican Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) taking the lead. The seat is currently held by retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond.
The numbers: Blunt 49%, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 43%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Last month, Carnahan had a slim lead of 46%-44%, and in September they were tied at 46% each.
From the pollster's analysis: "As it has for other Democrats throughout the nation, the health care issue appears to be creating challenges for Carnahan. Just 37% of Missouri voters favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, but 62% oppose it. As in most other states, stronger feelings are on the side of the opponents. In Missouri, 20% Strongly Favor the plan versus 50% who Strongly Oppose it."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new Rasmussen poll says that it's a tight race for a Republican-held Senate seat in Missouri, a state that voted for John McCain in 2008, with possibly a slight edge for the Democrats.
The numbers: Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 46%, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt 44%, within the ±4.5% margin of error. Back in September, Rasmussen had them tied at 46% each.
It's interesting that Democrats would be competitive and perhaps even ahead in this state, in the midst of an apparently tough national environment.
The poll finds that only 40% of Missouri voters favor the health care bill, to 57% against. But Carnahan leads not only among those in favor of the plan, but even among those are "somewhat opposed" to it.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new survey of Missouri by Public Policy Polling (D) shows a dead heat in the race for this state's open Republican-held Senate seat.
The numbers: Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 43%, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error. The last time PPP tested this race in January, Carnahan had an edge of 45%-44%. Carnahan also leads Blunt's primary challenger, state Sen. Chuck Purgason, Carnahan has a 42%-35% lead. Blunt leads Purgason in the GOP primary by 53%-16%.
The pollster's analysis finds that Carnahan's personal ratings are much better than Blunt's. Her favorable rating is at 40%, to a 36% unfavorable, compared to Blunt's upside-down rating of 30%-38%. Nevertheless, this is a close race. One possible factor: President Obama's approval rating in the state is low, at 43%-52%.
"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)House Republicans slammed the new Democratic health care reform bill this morning, but didn't say when or if they'll be offering a reform package of their own.
GOP leader John Boehner led a press conference to voice his concerns about the bill an hour or so after Pelosi was done presenting it outside. He walked carrying the nearly 2,000 page house bill, which he dropped with a thud onto the podium.
"Through August and September, the American people made it clear they want know part of a government-run system for providing health care," he said. "[But] this bill amounts to a government takeover of our health care system."
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