Larry Sabato

Why Are Dem Voters Now Less Motivated Than Republicans?

Eric Kleefeld | November 30, 2009, 4:32PM

Prof. Larry Sabato, University of Virginia

So what should we make of the recent Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, showing that Democratic voters are much less motivated than Republicans are to vote in 2010? Prof. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia gave us some perspective -- and said that even if the Democrats pass major programs like health care, it won't necessarily be enough to turn things back around.

"Well, look first let's stress it's a year ahead of the election, so a lot can change," Sabato cautioned. "The second point I'd make is, this is not terribly unusual. This is the norm for off year elections."

"Now why does this happen?" Sabato also explained "The opposition has a great advantage in off-year elections. Their numbers tend to be frustrated and angry about A-B-C, D-E-F. There are a lot of reasons why they're angry. The supporters of a president inevitably become somewhat disillusioned by the process of governing."

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Mark Kirk

GOP Senate Candidate Kirk: Health Care Bill Would Deny Women Mammograms!

Eric Kleefeld | November 30, 2009, 2:59PM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), who is running for President Obama's former Senate seat in 2010, is now embracing an offshoot of the "death panel" line -- warning that the health care bill could result in women being denied mammograms!

As Greg Sargent reports, Kirk's campaign sent out an e-mail, officially a "questionnaire":

This month, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended eliminating mammograms for women ages 40-49. The panel concluded that while thousands of women's lives would be saved by continuing the test, "the net benefit is small" for the population as a whole.

Currently, this is only an advisory recommendation. But under the health care bill moving through the Senate, this recommendation could become law.

TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK: Should women between the ages of 40 and 49 be denied access to life-saving mammograms?

However, the fact is that the Senate health bill would not do such a thing. But that panel recommendation has become a big talking point of the right in the past couple weeks, warning of government-rationed care -- and this e-mail is a strong sign of how conservative Kirk is going in this statewide race, after years of maintaining a moderate profile in a Democratic district.

FL-SEN

Rush Limbaugh: 'I Like Rubio'

Eric Kleefeld | November 25, 2009, 11:38AM

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)

The Marco Rubio campaign has now posted a very interesting YouTube video, in which the conservative insurgent candidate for Senate wins the praise of a notable right-wing activist and Florida resident: Rush Limbaugh.

"I like Rubio," said Limbaugh, in a guest appearance on a local Florida radio show. "I've never met him, nor have I met Crist, but I know that there's a sea change brewing and effervescing in this country."

And Limbaugh took aim at Charlie Crist's provocative insistence that he's a conservative, and Crist's ridicule of his detractors: "I noticed that Crist is out there now, 'Hey what do you mean, who says I'm not conservative? I'm pro-life, I'm pro-gun, well I don't know what more I have to be, except angry.' That's not gonna sit well."

CT-SEN

GOP Field Against Dodd Shrinking, From Five Candidates To Four (And Maybe Three)

Eric Kleefeld | November 24, 2009, 2:06PM

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT)

The huge field of GOP candidates to oppose Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) has just gotten a bit smaller, and could shrink even further, as the state readjusts to an open gubernatorial race.

Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley has announced that he is now considering a run for governor, in the wake of GOP Gov. Jodi Rell's announcement that she's retiring: "We no longer have an incumbent Governor seeking re-election. I have had a number of conversations with people who are encouraging me to consider running for Governor because they believe I could better serve Connecticut today as Governor than as a Senator. They believe that as an experienced executive and someone who understands the economy and how jobs are created, I have a background and set of skills uniquely suited to addressing the very serious spending problems and other economic challenges now facing our state."

State Sen. Sam Caligiuri has also announced that he's definitely out of the Senate race, and is instead running for the House of Representatives against second-term Democrat Chris Murphy.

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IL-SEN

Conservative Insurgent Candidate In Illinois Could Get Support From DeMint Group

Eric Kleefeld | November 23, 2009, 11:30AM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and IL-SEN Republican candidate Patrick Hughes

Could Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-SC) leadership PAC, the Senate Conservatives Fund, be on the verge of getting involved in the Illinois Senate race, and opposing establishment favorite Rep. Mark Kirk?

DeMint's group held an online poll this past week, asking supporters to choose between Kirk, attorney and conservative activist Patrick Hughes, and "Other." As it turns out, Kirk came in third, even trailing "Other": Hughes 644 votes (73.9%), "Other" 132 votes (15.1%), Kirk 71 votes (8.1%), with "Undecided" and "No Response" totaling 24 votes (2.7%).

Hughes has met with DeMint twice, and is working to mobilize conservatives against the frontrunner. DeMint has taken the sides of more conservative candidates over the establishment in recent months, including Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 special election, Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race, and Chuck DeVore in the California Senate race.

Kirk has worked hard to move to the right -- such as when he changed his position on the climate change bill, right in the middle of a speech to a local Republican crowd.

Carly Fiorina

Fiorina: I Would Have Voted To Confirm Sonia Sotomayor To The Supreme Court

Eric Kleefeld | November 23, 2009, 10:52AM

Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, a candidate for the Republican nomination to run against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), may have just gotten herself in trouble with the right -- saying that she probably would have voted to confirm Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court.

Dave Weigel reports:

At a breakfast with reporters this morning, California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina responded to a question about whether she would filibuster Obama nominees by saying that "elections have consequences," but that she'd look at the nominees' qualifications.

"I did not closely follow the Sonia Sotomayor nomination," said Fiorina. "I was battling breast cancer. But I probably would have voted for Sotomayor. She seemed qualified."

Look for state Rep. Chuck DeVore, Fiorina's opponent in the Republican primary, to use this against her in his efforts to be the hard-line conservative option.

John McCain

Poll: McCain In Dead Heat In Potential 2010 GOP Primary For Re-Election

Eric Kleefeld | November 20, 2009, 9:07AM

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)

A new Rasmussen poll finds that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) could potentially be in trouble with Republican voters back home in Arizona, where he's often faced criticism from the right for his views on immigration.

In a potential Republican primary for his 2010 re-election, the 2008 GOP nominee for President is in a dead heat with former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, a hard-line conservative who lost his seat in the 2006 Democratic wave.

The numbers: McCain 45%, Hayworth 43%, with a ±4% margin of error. A third candidate who is already in the race, former Minuteman leader Chris Simcox, gets 4%.

From the pollster's analysis: "For McCain, the GOP Primary appears to be his biggest challenge since no major Democrats in the state have stepped forward yet to run against him."

FL-SEN

Poll: Rubio Trails Crist In Primary By Only 10 Points, Keeps Crist Under 50

Eric Kleefeld | November 19, 2009, 1:55PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Florida Republican Senate primary finds conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio catching up on moderate Gov. Charlie Crist.

The numbers: Crist 47%, Rubio 37%. Way back in January, Crist was ahead by 57%-11%.

Crist became vulnerable to a conservative primary challenge when he endorsed the stimulus package, and even hugged President Obama. He has since denied that he endorsed it, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Kos thinks Rubio will easily win the race: "Crist's only chance for political survival is a party switch, to either (I) or (D)." The poll also finds that the likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Kendrick Meek, is currently a non-player against either Crist and Rubio, and only becomes relevant in a three-way race with an independent Crist, which is roughly tied (full numbers not yet released).

(Via Dave Weigel)

Linda McMahon

Former Pro Wrestler Slams Linda McMahon's Senate Campaign

Eric Kleefeld | November 19, 2009, 1:13PM

Wrestler "Superstar Billy Graham", CT-Sen candidate Linda McMahon (R)

Former Worldwide Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, a candidate for the Republican nomination to run against Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), is now facing some strong attacks from a Mr. Eldridge Wayne Coleman -- a.k.a. "Superstar Billy Graham," a former pro-wrestler who worked for McMahon.

"She may look like a Sunday school teacher," said Graham, who described himself a conservative, and who supports one of McMahon's GOP rivals, former Rep. Rob Simmons. "Linda McMahon's hands are as bloody as her husband's [Vince McMahon] because she is aware of every move in the ring."

Graham said that the McMahons condoned steroid use that damaged wrestlers' health (including himself), didn't provide health care or pensions to those same wrestlers, and have quickly shifted from all manner of inappropriate TV programming -- ranging from wrestlers being told to cut themselves with razors in order to bleed on stage, to "bra and panty" wrestling matches between scantily-clad female performers -- to cleaner content in the run-up to her campaign.

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Tommy Thompson

Tommy Thompson Could Run For Senate, Or Governor -- Or Small-Town Mayor

Eric Kleefeld | November 18, 2009, 1:04PM

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI)

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson appears to be considering any number of political comebacks, ranging from a return to the state's open governorship, to a Senate run -- in which he would likely be a very strong challenger to Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold -- or perhaps even mayor of a small town.

"I haven't said no," Thompson told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I'm looking at it. I'm looking at governor, I'm looking at senator and I'm looking at mayor of Elroy. One of the three."

For your information, Elroy is Thompson's home town. I just called the city hall, and they told me the population is approximately 1,500 people.

Thompson was elected to four terms as governor, starting in 1986 and only left when President George W. Bush appointed him as Secretary of Health and Human Services. He ran for the Republican nomination for president in 2008, but dropped out in the face of bad poll numbers and fundraising in the middle of 2007. He was frequently talked about as a potential Senate candidate in the 1990s and 2000s, but has never run.

(Via Political Wire)

MO-SEN

Poll: Statistical Tie In Missouri Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 18, 2009, 10:54AM

Missouri Sec. of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)

The new survey of Missouri by Public Policy Polling (D) shows a dead heat in the race for this state's open Republican-held Senate seat.

The numbers: Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 43%, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error. The last time PPP tested this race in January, Carnahan had an edge of 45%-44%. Carnahan also leads Blunt's primary challenger, state Sen. Chuck Purgason, Carnahan has a 42%-35% lead. Blunt leads Purgason in the GOP primary by 53%-16%.

The pollster's analysis finds that Carnahan's personal ratings are much better than Blunt's. Her favorable rating is at 40%, to a 36% unfavorable, compared to Blunt's upside-down rating of 30%-38%. Nevertheless, this is a close race. One possible factor: President Obama's approval rating in the state is low, at 43%-52%.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive."

Linda McMahon

Linda McMahon: We Need To Focus On Real Issues, Not 'Fictitious Content' Of Pro-Wrestling

Eric Kleefeld | November 17, 2009, 5:10PM

Former Worldwide Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R-CT)

Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon, a candidate for the Republican nomination to run against Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), denounced Democratic attacks on her for the racy moments in pro-wrestling.

Connecticut Democrats have gone after McMahon for some of the WWE's content, including depictions of public sex, rape and necrophilia.

McMahon was asked about it in an online chat hosted by The Day:

WWE is a company that produces fiction. It's a soap opera that runs 52 weeks a year. I think instead of focusing on fictitious content, we need to focus on the issues that are real: unemployment, job creation, healthcare, education and the direction our country is taking in terms of fiscal issues. Those are the serious issues of the day, not the fiction that WWE creates for its entertainment product.

I will also say that the people I have spoken to around this state smile when I give the analogy that I don't believe the voters who elected Arnold Schwarzenegger expected him to show up in one of his outfits from the movie "Terminator" in Sacramento.

Read more »

Mitch McConnell

McConnell Takes Sides For Grayson, Ayotte In Key Senate Primaries

Eric Kleefeld | November 17, 2009, 2:59PM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and KY-SEN candidate Trey Grayson (R)

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is taking sides in two key open-seat Republican primaries for Senate, Chris Cillizza reports, with an upcoming fundraiser for Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson and former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.

Both of these candidates are in primary races. Grayson is being opposed by Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), with similar small-government libertarian positions. Ayotte is running against businessmen Jim Bender and William Binnie, and former state Board of Education chairman Ovide Lamontagne.

In the Kentucky race, Rand Paul recently had a gaffe in which he failed to fully commit to supporting McConnell for Republican leader -- not the best move to make in McConnell's own state, where he is the biggest name in the state GOP.

Late Update: The Rand Paul campaign has given us this statement from the candidate:

After the primary, I will want to work with Senator McConnell. We will need each other. He and I agree on many issues such as the unconstitutionality of McCain-Feingold.

Until then, it would be unfair of me to to ask Grayson to compete on his own merits, all by himself. I think the only way we can be evenly matched is for him to have significant help from DC insiders, PACs, and special interest money.

Even then, it will likely not be enough. 2010 will be the year of the outsider. The Tea Party movement wants reform of government and they are embracing our message of Term Limits, Balanced Budgets, and the Read the Bills Act.

Charlie Crist

Flashback: Crist 'Absolutely' Would Have Voted For Stimulus

Eric Kleefeld | November 17, 2009, 10:52AM

Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R)

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) has been trying to downplay or even deny his past support for the stimulus package, which has been used as a major wedge issue in his Senate primary by the more conservative Marco Rubio. Now Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson digs up some further evidence against Crist:

"Most revealing, he told CNN on November 4th: "I didn't endorse it, I didn't even have a vote on the darn thing."

But when I interviewed Crist this spring for my piece The GOP Jihad, here's what he told me he'd have done had he had a darn vote:

Rolling Stone: Just a final question: Had you been in the Senate, would you have voted with the other Republicans for the stimulus package?

Crist: Absolutely.

DE-SEN

Poll: Beau Biden Ahead Of Mike Castle In Delaware Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 16, 2009, 3:19PM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) and state Atty. Gen. Beau Biden (D-DE)

A new Susquehanna (R) poll of the Delaware Senate race gives Democratic state Attorney General Beau Biden, a son of Vice President Joe Biden, a five-point lead over long-time GOP Congressman Mike Castle in the 2010 race for Joe Biden's former Senate seat.

The numbers: Beau 45%, Castle 40%, with a ±3.36% margin of error. Way back in April, the last time Susquehanna polled this race, they had Castle with a whopping lead of 55%-34%.

This is big news, considering that Castle has been in state politics for over 40 years and has never lost a race, and was seen as a moderate candidate whose entrance into the race gave a huge boost to the GOP.

The pollster's analysis says that this is the first public poll in which Beau Biden has been ahead, and suggests that Castle's current decline "may be a result of negative publicity he received in the state after casting a 'no; vote for President Obama's health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress. The current poll was conducted 11/10 - 11/15, the week immediately following the weekend when the U.S. House of Representatives voted on this landmark legislation."

(Via Dave Weigel)

Chuck DeVore

GOP Senate Candidate DeVore Seeks To Defuse Birtherism Story

Eric Kleefeld | November 16, 2009, 2:45PM

CA-SEN candidate Chuck DeVore (R)

Chuck DeVore, a California state Assemblyman running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in California, is working to defuse comments that seemingly made him out to be a birther-sympathizer.

"The president is doing himself no favors by spending millions of dollars to block the release of documents surrounding his birth certificate," DeVore said to Dave Weigel. "As long as the president keeps fighting tooth and nail to prevent the release of such things, people are going to remain skeptical."

In an interview just now, DeVore's communications director Josh Trevino told TPM that key statements the candidate made were omitted from the published report. "Assemblyman DeVore believes that Barack Obama is the rightful, legitimate and constitutional President of the United States," said Trevino. "He said 10 years ago that the move to impeach Bill Clinton was a distraction from countering his liberal policies, and he believes that the movement now to question Barack Obama's birth is a similar distraction."

Weigel has responded to inquiries about this by posting a full transcription of DeVore's answer to his question -- and maintains that DeVore did not fully repudiate the birthers: "I was a little surprised that DeVore didn't knock this down harder; it seems to be stinging him today."

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Rand Paul

Rand Paul Meets With McConnell, After Failing To Commit To Supporting Him For GOP Leader

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 12:01PM

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senate candidate Rand Paul (R-KY)

Rand Paul, a candidate in the Republican primary for Senate from Kentucky, had a meeting yesterday with the state's top Republican, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell -- following a gaffe in which Paul failed to commit to supporting McConnell for GOP leader.

The meeting came after Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), made a gaffe in an interview this past weekend, when the ABC affiliate in Louisville asked whether he would support McConnell for Republican Leader, if given the choice of the very conservative Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). "I like both of them and I don't know that I could make a judgement," Paul said at the time, adding: "I have to win the primary first. So I don't think I'd make a judgement on how I'd vote for leader, but I think obviously Kentucky having a leader is good for Kentucky."

Paul's opponent in the primary, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, has pounced on him for this. Paul apparently worked to undo the damage. "I have nothing but high compliments about his job as minority leader," he told reporters. "I have no reason not to support him."

"We had a very cordial conversation," Paul explained "I think it's probably better not to go into any detail about what we talked about."

Mark Kirk

Mark Kirk Denies Moving To The Right For Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 12, 2009, 4:56PM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), a candidate for President Obama's former Senate seat in 2010, says he is not moving to the right in order to secure the GOP nomination -- but the Chicago Tribune sees some inconsistencies:

"I am a social moderate, fiscal conservative. But this is a big race, and we are building a broad coalition, and it will be, for a Republican candidacy, a center-right coalition," said Kirk, a five-term North Shore congressman who is seeking a promotion to the Senate next year. "But for me, I haven't changed my views."

Last week, a day after appearing noncommittal about getting Palin's support during a Chicago visit next week, Kirk wrote a memo seeking to get the conservative ex-governor to say something nice about him in the Senate race.

Another fun example would be when Kirk changed his position on the climate-change bill in the middle of his speech to a Republican audience -- and the crowd liked it.

Stormy Daniels

Porn Star Stormy Daniels: 'I Have Nothing To Hide'

Eric Kleefeld | November 11, 2009, 5:10PM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) and Stormy Daniels

Porn star Stormy Daniels, who is running for U.S. Senate in Louisiana against incumbent Republican David Vitter, said in an interview with Marie Claire that she would provide a contrast to the hypocrisy of the incumbent, a family-values politician who was implicated in a prostitution scandal.

Q: Why shoot for the Senate?

A: I was drafted by a group called Draft Stormy, a grassroots movement in Louisiana that wanted someone who was the polar opposite of current senator David Vitter. They figured I would be perfect because I am open and honest about my sexuality, unlike Vitter. I realized that this is my chance to make a difference, to do something unselfish, noble, and to help a lot of people.

Q: You're referring to Senator Vitter's link to a Washington, D.C. escort service . . .

A: I'm not one to judge someone's sexual activity, but what annoys me is that he's so hard-core "family values," and he puts his wife and kids out there, saying he's a Christian family man. Then he's caught up in a prostitution scandal. He's a hypocrite.

Daniels also said that her career won't be a problem. "It's actually starting to work in my favor," she said. "I have nothing to hide. A sex tape of me isn't going to pop up and shame me; there are 150 of them at the video store."

Read more »

Senate '10

TPM's 2010 Senate Low-Down: Who's In Trouble And Who's Not

Eric Kleefeld | November 10, 2009, 6:38PM

Sens Harry Reid (D-NV) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Looking ahead to the 2010 Senate races, when Democrats hope to expand their 60-seat supermajority and Republicans want to chip away at it, there are a whole bunch of competitive races on each side -- and with no immediately obvious sure bets for which seats might flip, a whole lot could happen.

In theory, the Democrats could expand their ranks even further, after two consecutive wave elections, for the reason that only one-third of the Senate is up at a given time. Thus, the Senators who are up in 2010 were shielded from the 2006 and 2008 Democratic waves, in which the Dems won nearly all the Senate races they could possibly take. To sweeten the deal for Democrats, more Republican-held seats are up in total than Democratic ones -- because 2004, when this Senate class was last up for election, was a Republican year.

A lot will depend on the national environment. In marginal cases, whether it's a Democratic or Republican year, and the extent of this, can make the difference for the candidates involved, and likely made the difference in some of those close races in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

Let's take a look at some of the top races.

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Franni Franken

Franni Franken Working To Defeat Bachmann -- And Becoming Friends With Bachmann, Too!

Eric Kleefeld | November 10, 2009, 4:00PM

Franni Franken, Rep. Michele Bachman (R-MN)

Sen. Al Franken's (D-MN) wife Franni has been taking an active role in his Senate office and in Minnesota politics, the Star-Tribune reports in a new profile of her -- and could be making some very unlikely friends along the way:

Franni Franken has also begun to explore the political side as well as the policy and will co-host a fundraiser this month for Tarryl Clark, a state senator seeking the DFL endorsement in a race to unseat Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann.

But when Franken found herself this summer sitting on an airplane next to Bachmann, the two bonded unexpectedly over a love of good deals and spent the plane ride swapping local bargain spots.

Senate '10

Who Will Be The Next Hoffmania Victim In 2010 -- Or The Next Hoffman?

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 5:23PM

NY-23 Candidate Doug Hoffman (Conservative)

The NY-23 special election saw an amazing political phenomenon, with the right wing taking down a moderate Republican, as grassroots conservatives mobilize against a traditionally more cautious party establishment. So what are some other races out there?

We're not talking about any old crowded Republican primary -- for example, the fields right now in New Hampshire and Nevada are still taking shape -- though of course those races could potentially become Hoffmanized down the road. We're talking about races in which a push from the right can upset the balance of a race, pushing out an establishment-favored candidate due to insufficient conservatism.

Florida: Crist vs. Rubio
The Club For Growth, which heavily backed Hoffman, has made the Florida Senate race a new priority, endorsing the more conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio over moderate Gov. Charlie Crist, who had supported the stimulus and campaigned for it alongside President Obama. (Interestingly enough, Crist now says he didn't endorse the stimulus, but was simply working to get the best possible deal for Florida. The Rubio camp and his backers, as you can imagine, aren't taking that for an answer.)

Read more »

NV-SEN

Lowden Facing Opposition From Group Of Ron Paul Supporters In Nevada GOP Senate Primary

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 1:49PM

Sue Lowden (R), NV Sen candidate

Sue Lowden, a former Nevada GOP chair and currently a candidate for Senate, could face an interesting obstacle in her quest for the party's nomination to go up against Democratic Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid, the Reno Gazette-Journal reports -- Ron Paul supporters.

A new group called the Fair Nevada Elections PAC, run by nuclear science consultant and Paul-supporter Robert Holloway, contends that Lowden unfairly used her position to prevent Paul delegates from being chosen at the state convention last year. "Sue Lowden basically stole the election for John McCain," said Holloway, a very strong charge to say the least. "We need to elect people who have respect for law and order, and our electoral process."

Lowden spokesman Robert Uithoven fired back, saying that Lowden had in fact allowed Paul to speak at the state convention, and had promoted his appearances around the state. "I think some people want to get stuck reliving the 2008 election cycle," said Uithoven.

Lowden is running in a contested primary against Danny Tarkanian, a former UNLV basketball player.

CA-SEN

Poll: Fiorina And DeVore Tied In California

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 12:28PM

CA-SEN Republican candidates Chuck DeVore and Carly Fiorina

A new Los Angeles Times poll finds a tie in the California Republican Senate primary, with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and state Rep. Chuck DeVore at 27% each, for the right to go up against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.

A whopping 40% of Republican primary voters were undecided, plus 4% who refused to answer and 2% who said they preferred another candidate. The take-away from this poll is that both candidates have a long way to go in building up their respective name identifications.

Expect both candidates to tout the big-name conservatives who are supporting them. DeVore is running an antiestablishment campaign, and has the endorsement of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Fiorina has the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) -- for whom Fiorina had been a campaign surrogate during the 2008 presidential election - as well as the conservative hero Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK). (The NRSC itself is not backing Fiorina, but the endorsement of the top leaders in the caucus is a pretty strong statement.)

FL-SEN

Club For Growth's New Involvement In Florida Race Spurred By Rubio's Fundraising Success

Eric Kleefeld | November 6, 2009, 5:17PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)

Yesterday, the Club For Growth launched a new attack ad against Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL), a moderate who is facing a challenge in the GOP primary for Senate from the more conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio -- which was, in fact, a change from the Club's previous skepticism about getting involved in this race.

Back in July, when Crist was much further ahead in both polls and fundraising, the Club's executive director David Keating had said the Club was still looking at where it could best spend its money: "We have to look at his race versus all the others we're interested in, and there are going to be a lot of competitive races."

Today, Keating told TPM that Rubio's recent pick-up in fundraising, taking in about $1 million for the previous quarter, was an encouraging sign.

Read more »

Mark Kirk

Kirk Seeking Palin's Endorsement For Senate Run -- After Badmouthing Her In 2008

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2009, 4:41PM

Fmr. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) has been actively seeking seeking the endorsement of none other than Sarah Palin in his race for Senate, the Washington Post reports, a sharp turnaround from prior image as a moderate and even his own open criticism of Palin herself.

In a memo, Kirk wrote that he was hoping for Palin to support his candidacy when she comes to Chicago to appear on the Oprah Winfrey show, saying that "the Chicago media will focus on one key issue: Does Gov[ernor] Palin oppose Congressman Mark Kirk's bid to take the Obama Senate seat for the Republicans?"

Kirk has formerly had a reputation as a moderate Republican able to win in Democratic areas, such as his own district that voted for Barack Obama by 61%-38%. And in October of 2008, he openly declared of Palin, "I would have picked someone different."

But the pressure of seeking the Republican statewide nomination, with a primary electorate that has become increasingly right-wing, sure has him looking for the Palin stamp of approval.

KY-SEN

Poll: Rand Paul Leads In Kentucky Republican Senate Primary

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2009, 12:04PM

Senate candidate Rand Paul (R-KY)

A new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky finds that Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), has a narrow lead in the Republican primary for Senate against the establishment favorite, Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

The numbers: Paul 35%, Grayson 32%, within the ±4.7% margin of error. Back in August, Grayson was ahead of Paul by 37%-26%. This is a Republican-held open seat, currently occupied by retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning.

In the Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo leads state Attorney General Jack Conway by 39%-28%, with a ±4.1% margin of error, compared to a 39%-31% Mongiardo lead in August.

And here are the general election match-ups: Grayson leads Conway by 43%-39%, and he leads Mongiardo by 48%-38%. Conway leads Paul by 44%-39%, and Mongiardo and Paul are tied at 43%-43%. The margin of error is ±2.4%.