2010 elections

Surprise! Meet The House Dems Who Used To Be Safe -- But Aren't Anymore

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 8:57AM

Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO)

Republicans are widely expected to make significant gains this November, possibly, perhaps even probably, taking back control of the House of Representatives. This is to be expected to some extent, as the Democrats enjoyed two big wave elections in 2006 and 2008, and many of those House members won't be coming back. But there are some other Dems, who in many other cycles would be safe bets to be reelected, that have unexpectedly ended up in tough races after longer tenures in Congress.

[TPM'S TOP 10 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH]

The House members we're talking about are folks who have been easily re-elected in past cycles, often without significant opposition, in districts that were leaning Republican in other ways, such as in the presidential vote. But in a year where the GOP has the wind at their backs, these Dems are now being aggressively targeted, and facing tough races.

"You always have some Congressmen who have been shaky," said Professor Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia, in an interview with TPM. "You think of John Spratt. Look at his district, where it is in South Carolina, he's never really that safe. Ike Skelton [of Missouri] -- they're just never that safe. They get a lot of passes, and their incumbency and their chairmanships help them. But every now and then the sun and the moon and the stars align just right and they're in trouble. It doesn't mean they'll lose, but they'll have close and competitive races, anyway."

So let's take a look at some of the Dems who have been in Congress for awhile -- and somewhat surprisingly, will have to work hard this year to stay there. This list is not exhaustive of all suddenly-vulnerable Dems, nor is it meant to imply that all or even any of them are guaranteed to lose. But it does give a sense of the current hostile environment and lack of Democratic enthusiasm -- especially as it spreads to districts that have been becoming more Republican underneath their occupants' feet.

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Health Care

Five Conservative Dems Campaigning On Opposition To Health Care Reform

Eric Kleefeld | August 30, 2010, 8:57AM

Demonstrators rally outside of the U.S. Capitol Building.

An interesting pattern has started to emerge in this midterm election, which could be dominated by the continuing debate over the health care reform law passed earlier this year. A whole bunch of Dems from Republican-leaning districts have been running ads in which they tout their opposition to the bill.

So let's take a look at some of these conservative Dems. Will their votes against the bill -- and their public campaigning on those votes -- actually work for them in November?

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SD-At Large

Dem Herseth Sandlin Talks Up Vote Against Health Care In New Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | July 14, 2010, 11:33AM

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD)

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) has a new ad out for her re-election campaign in this red state -- touting her vote against the health care reform law.

In the ad, Herseth Sandlin talks about her determination to be an independent voice for South Dakotans. "It's why I voted against the bailouts, and a trillion-dollar health care plan -- but for expanding renewable energy and improving veterans benefits."

The TPM Poll Average currently has Republican state Rep. Kristi Noem leading Herseth Sandlin by 51.7%-42.4%.

(Via Jim Geraghty -- who also notes that Herseth Sandlin does not support repealing the new health care law.)

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Steve Hildebrand

Former Obama Campaign Staffer Hildebrand Could Run Against Rep. Herseth Sandlin In Dem Primary

Eric Kleefeld | March 16, 2010, 3:13PM

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD)

Steve Hildebrand, a former top staffer to the Obama campaign in 2008, says that he could potentially run against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) in the Democratic primary -- if she doesn't vote for health care reform.

"I want to see how she votes on health care," Hildebrand, a native South Dakotan, told CNN. "If the vote is very, very close and we lose it or come close to losing it, I will take a seriously look at challenging her."

Hildebrand said he has not spoken to the Obama administration, nor to South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson or former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. He said that if he does decide to run he will have a "conversation with them." However, he added: "But I would not expect them to go against an incumbent within their party."

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin

Poll: Red-State Dem Rep. Herseth Sandlin In Close Race

Eric Kleefeld | December 15, 2009, 12:23PM

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD)

A new survey by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD), a Democrat from a red state, running ahead but nevertheless in a competitive race for her 2010 re-election campaign.

Herseth Sandlin has a 49% approval rating, to 38% disapproval, well ahead of President Obama's 41%-52% rating in this state. She is ahead of Republican state Rep. Blake Curd by a 52%-31% margin, but is in a much closer race against Secretary of State Chris Nelson by only 46%-39%. The margin of error is ±3.7%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Herseth Sandlin's standing is a good microcosm of the difficulties Democrats face this year in Republican areas. Even though she is personally popular and did vote against the health care bill, she still only has a single digit lead against a relatively unknown opponent. If Nelson turns out to be a good candidate this race will be highly competitive but it's hard to say there's really anything Herseth Sandlin should be doing differently -- it's just not going to be easy in places where Obama and the Congressional leadership are so unpopular."