
House Republicans advanced a measure Monday that shifts automatic defense spending cuts the parties agreed to last August as part of a bipartisan debt-limit deal to domestic programs aimed at mitigating poverty and working-class struggles.
In clearing the legislation, the Budget Committee put it on a glide path to passing the full House -- but that's when it falls into limbo. Senate Democratic leadership had a concise message for their GOP colleagues: Dream on.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Under fire from progressives for working with Republicans on legislation that would likely cut entitlements and raise taxes, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer told reporters Thursday he thinks there's an imperative to address long-run budget deficits rationally, before the end of the election, in a way that doesn't end the explicit guarantees of key government programs.
In a roundtable with reporters in his Capitol office, Hoyer said the group's still a long way from achieving broad consensus, but sought to reassure critics, constituents and other observers that he opposes the GOP's radical entitlement proposals.
"I want to emphasize, because I get beat up on, I'm for the Medicare guarantee, I'm not for a Paul Ryan alternative that eliminates the guarantee," he said. "[Some claim] I've said we ought to raise the age. I haven't said that. What I've said is I think everything ought to be on the table."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Amid rumblings that House Republicans may break their end of a major budget agreement they struck with Democrats last fall, and possibly touch off another government shutdown battle later this year, a top Senate Democrat issued a stern warning to the GOP: Don't go there.
"We had a deal last August on the budget numbers, and we expect them to live with that deal," said Sen. Patty Murray (WA) -- a member of the Democratic leadership, high-ranking member of the Budget Committee and erstwhile co-chair of the Super Committee -- in an interview with TPM. "I have been astonished how many times they play with fire. Last August they almost shut the government down, a year ago they almost shut the government down, by trying to go to a place where most Americans don't believe we should be going."
Republican leaders in Congress have all but reneged on a key agreement they reached with the White House last summer rather than reconsider their unwavering stance against new tax revenue.
Relations between the Obama administration and the congressional GOP were already just about as bad as can be. But even so, this sets a precedent future Congresses and White Houses will remember when partisan mismatches force them to strike deals and govern.
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Senate Republicans unveiled a proposal Thursday to avoid or delay looming, automatic cuts to defense and security programs by reducing the federal work force by five percent and freezing federal pay for two and a half years.
In a bid to recruit Democratic support for their legislation, the authors of the plan say it saves enough money to forestall automatic cuts to domestic programs, also set to kick in on January 2013. But they continue to oppose using any new tax revenues to offset any of these costs -- and in so doing they exposed a contradiction at the heart of their fiscal policy. They oppose tax increases, they say, because of their impact on economic growth -- yet their plan to avoid tax increases involves deliberately shrinking demand for jobs.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama sacrificed an awful lot last year to take the debt limit off the legislative table until his second term, or some lucky Republican's first term. More importantly, he wanted it off the table until after the 2012 elections, to prevent a replay of last year's debt limit fight from playing out in the middle of election season, when the political consequences would be farther-reaching. And by "farther-reaching" we mean the doomsday scenario of legislators succumbing to a collective action problem and allowing the country to default on its debt.
Well, it looks like Obama will probably get his wish, but it will be an awfully close call.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Despite a brewing panic among Congressional Republicans (and some Democrats) over automatic, across-the-board defense cuts set to kick in on January 1, 2013, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee says those cuts must stand unless and until Republicans relent on their anti-tax absolutism, and agree on a balanced deficit reduction package that includes higher revenue.
"The purpose of the sequester is to force us to act to avoid the sequester," Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor roundtable. "It's like a nuclear weapon -- it's totally useless; it can't be used except to accomplish some other goal than its use. It's used to deter."
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At a briefing with a handful of reporters in his Capitol suite Monday afternoon, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor outlined the coming year on Capitol Hill -- one he said would be marked by increased oversight of the Obama administration; an ongoing debate between the parties about how best to grow the economy; and what he called a bipartisan effort to prevent automatic cuts to defense spending from kicking in at the end of the year.
But the two issues that have most divided the parties since President Obama took office -- the two most consequential pieces of the budget and the U.S. economy -- will most likely be decided by the election.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)When President Obama and the GOP's primary contenders talk up the 2012 election as a choice for voters between two visions for the country's future, it's only about half hyperbole.
We'll see a prelude of this fact in the months between now and November both on the campaign trail and on Capitol Hill as politicians club each other with their past votes and statements on taxes, Medicare, Social Security, and other potent issues. But it's not just rhetoric.
To an unappreciated extent, the legislative whipsawing in 2011 has set the country and the parties up for a major reckoning about the role and size of government at the end of next year. And the outcome of the election will help determine which side of the argument wins.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)When the House GOP's enormous freshman class arrived on Capitol Hill in January, it wasn't uncommon to hear them sound off on the mistakes their predecessors made in 1995. Despite having shut down the government -- twice! -- House Republicans under Newt Gingrich had caved too easily, didn't push hard enough, didn't embody the true spirit of conservatism.
But the new House leadership wasn't so sanguine. Many had lived through the Gingrich revolution and its aftermath. Others had been around long enough to hear tales of it. And so they mapped out a strategy specifically designed to avoid what they believe were the party's '90s-era mistakes.
In other words, the two factions -- the newly energized backbenchers and the veteran leadership -- were pulling each other in opposite directions. The tug of war left the House GOP's strategic center of gravity stuck in an unstable position. The party was committed to fighting as hard as possible, but stopping short of its most conservative members' slash and burn instincts.
The 2011 version of the House GOP, in not always easy coordination with Senate Republicans, would approve must-pass bills, but only after dragging negotiations down to the wire and extracting as many concessions as possible from Senate Dems and the White House each time. We saw that strategy play out over and over again this year, with mixed results for both parties and largely poor results for the country at large.
Here's a quick lookback at a year of living dangerously -- and the series of recurring crises that it produced.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Is the White House taking advantage of the holiday recess to thumb its nose at Congressional Republicans over the nation's debt limit?
That's one interpretation of an announcement Treasury Department officials made today, which sets in motion an automatic increase in borrowing authority while Congress is out of session.
All of this dates back to the destructive summer fight over whether, by how much, and under what conditions to raise the national debt ceiling. Back then, the White House sought over $2 trillion in new borrowing authority -- enough to assure the country avoided another debt limit fight in the middle of election season, when members of Congress might be even more willing to put the country's creditworthiness at risk for short-term political gain.
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Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) says the right response to the failure of the Super Committee is to let a thousand ad hoc Super Committees bloom.
When the panel failed, it lost all of its power, which was in essence the power to force Congress to hold up-or-down votes on their recommendations -- no amendments, no filibuster.
Lieberman wants to extend these same powers to any sufficiently large bipartisan "gang" in the House or Senate, if they can come up with at least $1.5 trillion in deficit reducing measures over the course of three months.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Former Super Committee co-chair and head of Senate Democrats' 2012 campaign effort Patty Murray will take on the GOP myth that the wealthiest Americans are "job creators" -- and therefore must be protected from higher marginal tax rates.
In prepared floor remarks sent my way, Murray will argue that the GOP has this exactly backwards, and that middle class workers need more money in their pockets -- not the highest earners.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democratic sources confirm that Harry Reid will try to win GOP support for a new payroll tax holiday by shrinking the size of the overall cut, and offering Republicans a few concessions that they've been pushing for both publicly and behind the scenes.
But their proposal will be partially paid for by a small, temporary income surtax on millionaires, and that will be a tough sell with Republicans, according to a top Republican aide, as the GOP overwhelmingly opposes raising taxes on high-income earners.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)For at least the next several weeks, politics will undergo a strange transposition, during which Republicans will warn of the economic dangers of cutting government spending, and President Obama will barnstorm the country warning voters that Republicans are inviting a tax increase on the majority of Americans.
The timelines won't align perfectly, and the Democrats will have a greater sense of urgency. But in the wake of Super Committee failure, Democrats and Republicans are staring down uncomfortable deadlines, and each party's best bet for avoiding outcomes that harm their interests is to adopt the other's rhetoric.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)This is how bad information spreads. Channeling Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson, Mort Zuckerman -- the billionaire real estate and media mogul -- claimed on MSNBC Tuesday that Republicans on the super committee had broken with their anti-tax orthodoxy and proposed to increase taxes, modestly, on upper income Americans.
Here's Zuckerman:
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)If you're having a hard time buying that one party was more reasonable than another in the Super Committee negotiations, read Republican co-chair Jeb Hensarling's obituary for the panel in the Wall Street Journal. Specifically, check out this part about the GOP's big ask:
Democrats on the committee made it clear that the new spending called for in the president's health law was off the table. Still, committee Republicans offered to negotiate a plan on the other two health-care entitlements--Medicare and Medicaid--based upon the reforms included in the budget the House passed earlier this year....PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republicans on the committee also offered to negotiate a plan based on the bipartisan "Protect Medicare Act" authored by Alice Rivlin, one of President Bill Clinton's budget directors, and Pete Domenici, a former Republican senator from New Mexico. Rivlin-Domenici offered financial support to seniors to purchase quality, affordable health coverage in Medicare-approved plans. These seniors would be able to choose from a list of Medicare-guaranteed coverage options, similar to the House budget's approach--except that Rivlin-Domenici would continue to include a traditional Medicare fee-for-service plan among the options.
President Obama has threatened to veto any legislation that attempts to eliminate the automatic penalties for Super Committee failure. But on January 1, 2013 -- the same day the automatic, across the board spending cuts are scheduled to take effect -- all of the Bush tax cuts are set to expire. And the White House plans to use the threat of full expiration the exact same way they're using the threat of sequestration -- to force Republicans to accept a higher tax burden on wealthy Americans.
"He won't sign a full extension," said one Senior Administration Official at a White House background briefing for reporters on the Super Committee.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama on Monday threatened to veto any effort to avoid the automatic spending cuts triggered by the deficit super committee's failure to reach a deal.
Obama -- who spoke for about four minutes and took no questions -- placed the blame for the committee's failure to reach a deal on Republicans, saying that Democrats offered concessions on entitlement programs, but Republicans wouldn't budge. Obama added that, one way or another, the U.S. will trim the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years -- a goal the super committee originally sought to achieve.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A whirl of last minute meetings and shuttle diplomacy weren't enough to help the 12-member deficit Super Committee reach agreement on anything. Late on Monday, co-chairs Jeb Hensarling and Patty Murray put the panel to bed in an official statement.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Massachusetts Democrats are using gridlock on the Super Committee as an opening to drive a wedge between Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and the GOP's leading anti-tax activist Grover Norquist.
"Scott Brown talks the talk on looking for bipartisan compromise, but he doesn't walk the walk," said Massachusetts Democratic Party Chair John Walsh, in a statement provided to TPM. "For Brown, asking the wealthiest Americans to pay their fair share has always been off the table because of his blind allegiance to the Republican Party's agenda. Abandoning Norquist's extremist pledge that protects giveways to Big Oil and other special interests would go a long way toward showing that Scott Brown is serious about taking a balanced approach that asks the wealthiest Americans to share the burden of getting our nation's fiscal house in order instead of dumping it all on senior citizens and the middle class."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)New data from a CNN/ORC poll shows that since the Super Committee seems headed for failure, the resulting budget "haircut" will produce precisely the cuts the American public least desires.
Both parties in Congress are viewed as part of the problem -- Americans disapprove of the job Republicans are doing at a 77 percent clip, and 68 percent think Democrats are doing a lousy job as well. But when it comes to specific policy proposals, it's fairly one sided. Support for higher taxes on businesses and high income individuals is the highest rated idea with two thirds of Americans for it, second is cuts to domestic programs at 60 percent.
One of the least popular options are actually what's slated to happen if the Super Committee doesn't reach an accord -- support for cuts to defense hovers around forty percent. So does "major changes" to the Medicare systems and Social Security. The current plan should the Super Committee fail is a two percent cut to Medicare providers, cuts to defense and to other domestic programs. Of course, leaders can still reach another deal before those cuts become reality in 2013, but they'll have to overcome a filibuster vote.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Super Committee is poised to fail after markets close on Monday -- which is to say the 12 members weren't able to agree on a package of new revenues and lower spending to reduce the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion over 10 years. That was their charge, and insofar as they didn't do what they set out to do, they "failed."
But if Republicans and Democrats keep failing to agree on this stuff for the next year and change, the result will be an extraordinary decrease in federal deficits -- many multiples of what the Super Committee was tasked with finding.
We've been over this before, but the point is actually stronger now than it was earlier this year, because of the outcome of the debt limit fight. Between the looming expiration of the Bush tax cuts and other temporary tax provisions ($4.8 trillion), a large, scheduled drop in Medicare physician reimbursement rates ($300 billion), the soon-to-be triggered penalties for Super Committee failure ($1.2 trillion), and the resulting savings on servicing the national debt ($900 billion), deficits are set to drop by over $7 trillion automatically, unless Congress affirmatively stops it. That's on top of the $1 trillion-plus dollars Congress banked in the debt ceiling fight.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Capitol Hill sources say that barring a highly unexpected, last minute development, Super Committee co-chairs Jeb Hensarling and Patty Murray will issue a statement on Monday acknowledging the panel's failure.
The development comes one day before the panel's drop dead date to submit a plan, and three days before the debt limit law requires them to report legislation to the full Congress. Failure will lock into place deep, across the board cuts to defense and security programs, a two percent cut to Medicare providers, and cuts to other domestic programs. Those spending reductions will kick in on January 1, 2013, unless Congress acts to change the law, or passes more targeted budget cuts and thus agrees to eliminate the automatic penalty.
Those cuts, along with the looming expiration of the Bush tax cuts, promise to be major flashpoints for the 2012 campaign, and lock in a tough legislative food fight over cutting spending and raising taxes.
A highly placed Democratic source weighs in on the current state of Super Committee negotiations.
"Conversations are still happening, but its mostly about how to put this thing to bed," the aide says.
In other words, the ongoing conversations are mainly about putting the best face on failure rather than finding actual agreement.
This will come as no surprise to anybody who's been following the committee's progress (or lack thereof) over the last couple weeks. And it doesn't preclude the slim possibility that the panel will agree on at least a small package of budget cuts before Monday. Other sources say they're holding out hope for a last minute come-to-Jesus moment (for Democrats this means Republicans agreeing to significant new tax revenues). But it's as close to a death knell as we've seen so far.
After multiple meetings Friday, Democrats publicly excoriated a fall-back offer by Super Committee Republicans to cut 10-year deficits by over $600 billion. And for the first time, Democratic members are publicly casting doubt on the panel's chances to meet its Wednesday deadline.
Partisan tempers flared over how Democrats and Republicans describe the offer, which includes a trivial amount of new tax revenue, but doesn't touch entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Dem Super Committee Member Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) hasn't been at many of the recent private meetings between panel Republicans and Democrats. But he's only giving the group even odds to come up with a deficit reduction package by next Wednesday -- and if they do, he thinks it'll be pretty modest.
"I'd say about 50-50...It won't be done before Monday afternoon I don't think. It must be done by then," Clyburn told Bloomberg TV. "We'll have to have about 48 hours. Have to get in CBO scoring so that we can get something marked up on the 23rd."
More Clyburn: "Quite frankly I've kind of given up on big and bold, but I'm never going to give up on balance...whatever size deal will be, $1.2 trillion or $4 trillion, it has to be balanced."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)No one appreciates American veterans' sacrifice more than Stephen Colbert. But why should Colbert keep honoring the troops if they're not still sacrificing when they come home?
That was the subject of Colbert's "The Word" segment on Thursday. Leaders of the House and Senate veterans' affairs committees sent a letter to the deficit super committee, voicing support for capping veterans' affairs funding.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)So far Democrats and Republicans on the Super Committee have acted as voting blocs. And smart money is on the idea that any plan that can pass the committee will get substantial buy-in from both parties.
But for progressive groups there's a Doomsday Scenario where one deal-hungry Democrat defies his colleagues and votes with the entire GOP to pass a plan. The AFL-CIO is petitioning Dems to prevent that from happening.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Super Committee Democrats and Republicans and the leaders of both parties will work through the weekend to avoid missing their fast approaching deadline to cut $1.2 trillion from federal deficits over the next decade. Though the 12 members officially have until Wednesday to reach an agreement, the more realistic deadline is Monday evening, by which time they must have word back from CBO about the impact any plan they send to Congress will have on the budget.
Failure is very much an option. And if failure happens, Capitol Hill politics will take a severe turn heading into the 2012 election.
If November 23 comes and goes and there's no deal, Republicans will declare war on both Democrats and each other, and the most powerful interest groups in Washington will maul both parties in an effort to make sure that Super Committee failure doesn't translate into lost profits.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)If you're looking for evidence that Republicans aren't worried about actual federal deficits, look no further than their about-face on how to count the Super Committee's budget savings.
The details are technical, but crucial, so bear with me.
At the very end of the debt limit fight, Republicans crowed that the Super Committee's inherent design would make it difficult for the panel's Democrats to insist on tax increases. Because of how the Congressional Budget Office typically scores legislation, they argued, any attempt to raise marginal tax rates from their current Bush-era levels would actually score as a big tax cut and thus a budget buster -- a fact that would make it difficult for the Committee to hit its $1.2 trillion target.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With just six days left until the Super Committee deadline, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) acknowledged Thursday that the panel is unlikely to agree on the sort of broad deficit-cutting bargain she and other Democratic leaders have pushed for. And she made a strong case that the GOP's allergy to taxes is the reason her expectations have diminished.
Specifically, she responded to Republican Super Committee co-chair Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) who on Wednesday said Democrats would have to agree to dramatic steps -- such as partially privatizing Medicare -- before Republicans would agree to substantial new tax revenues.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Super committee deficit negotiations aren't going well. At all. And guess who's not surprised?
Jon Stewart, who rattled off the deficit-reduction groups of yore -- including the five people you meet in heaven and the three tenors.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)To hear Super Committee Democrats and Republicans talk about it, the parties really hit a wall early last week after each rejected the other's wildly different offer to cut about $2 trillion from deficits over 10 year.
But discussions continued until late into the week, when they stumbled again over much smaller goals, according to a Democratic aide.
The details, first reported by the Associated Press, underscore just how difficult it will be for the panel to reach an agreement by Monday, which GOP co-chair Jeb Hensarling cited Wednesday as the drop-dead date for the 12 members to act.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Shortly after catching heat from Democrats, Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) addressed reporters in the Cannon House Office Building to revise and extend controversial Tuesday comments, which threw the Super Committee's prospects into doubt. But he indicated that the two parties are stuck in a standoff -- one they don't really have time for. And Republicans won't budge, he insisted, unless Democrats take agree to far-reaching plan to change Medicare.
"Something has to be at the Congressional Budget Office by Monday," Hensarling said.
Hensarling hinted that his hard line on new taxes might not be so hard ... but only if Democrats are willing to fundamentally overhaul Medicare.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Another sign that the Super Committee's about to implode: Panel Democrats just scolded Republican co-chair Jeb Hensarling for taking his bright lines public on Tuesday, contrary to the spirit of the negotiations, which have been mostly leak-free.
"We've been really working hard not to negotiate in public and not to negotiate through you folks but to talk to each other in good faith and try to work through a compromise," said Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) after a closed door meeting.. "I think when people go public and say what they're willing and not willing to do, it isn't as helpful as sitting at a table and trying to work through these things. "
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democratic aides were paying close attention to Super Committee co-chair Jeb Hensraling's appearance on CNBC Tuesday night. For them, the most worrying thing was this part:
"We have gone as far as we feel we can go," Hensarling said. "We put $250 billion of what is known as static revenue on the table, but only if we can bring down rates. We believe we can bring the top individual rate down to 28, 29, maybe at most 30 percent, bring the corporate rate down to the median of the EU, 25 percent. And on balance, we think that would be pro growth. But, listen, any penny of increased static revenue is a step in the wrong direction."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republicans on the Super Committee are openly toying with the idea of reneging on the debt limit deal, which created a penalty designed to get panel members of both parties to compromise on cutting the deficit. If they actually try, though, they'll be rebuking House Speaker John Boehner, who only two weeks ago said he's obligated to follow through on his commitment.
The penalty, which will be triggered if the Committee fails, would cut hundreds of billions of dollars from both defense programs and Medicare providers. The former was designed to bring Republicans to the table, the latter, Democrats. Now even the committee's GOP co-chair is saying that if there's no agreement, he and congressional Republicans will fight to change the defense cuts -- in other words, he and others in the Republican will go back on their commitment.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Something you don't see very often in the Capitol: a Wednesday morning press conference with dozens of House and Senate members of both parties - including Republicans - acknowledging that they'd support a big deficit reduction proposal that includes higher tax revenue.
But wait, aren't several of those Republicans the same ones who recently signed a letter, written by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), asking that the Super Committee recommend "no net tax increase"?
Indeed they are. And asked to address the inconsistency, one of those signatories basically said they don't feel bound to DeMint's demands.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)It's hard to see how the Super Committee can possibly reach a consensus by this time next week after Republican co-chair Jeb Hensarling's appearance on CNBC Tuesday night. The short version is that he left the ball in Democrats court, and hinted that if the committee fails, Congress will spend the next year or so trying to change the terms of an automatic penalty to make sure that hundreds of billions of cuts to defense programs never take effect.
Hensarling claimed that if the committee recommended even a dollar of new net tax revenue -- the kind of revenue Dems are demanding -- it would constitute a step in the wrong direction. He said a GOP plan put forward by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) -- one which Republicans claim would raise revenues by nearly $300 billion over 10 years, but would also make the Bush tax cuts permanent -- is as far as Republicans are willing to go on revenues. But that's an offer Democrats flatly rejected as unserious. And unless one of the parties breaks cleanly with its publicly stated position, the committee will either fall well short of reducing the deficit by $1.2 trillion over 10 years as required by law, or will fail altogether.
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