OH-GOV

Republican Kasich Knocks Off Dem Strickland In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 12:03AM

John Kasich

Breaking: a strong conservative has defeated a Democratic incumbent in a swing state with high unemployment. According to the AP, John Kasich has become the latest Republican to play out the storyline of 2010 by defeating Gov. Ted Strickland in the Ohio gubernatorial race.

With 9.593 of 9,910 precincts reporting, Kasich leads 50.3%-47.3% and the AP and Fox News have called the race.

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OH-GOV

Fox News Poll Confirms Kasich's OH-GOV Advantage Heading Into Tomorrow

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 1, 2010, 12:03PM

John Kasich

It's oh-so-close in the Ohio gubernatorial race, but yet another public poll out today shows Republican John Kasich with a slim advantage over incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D).

A Fox News robopoll -- conducted using methodology from Rasmussen Saturday -- shows Kasich head 48-44. That number confirms the Strickland momentum shown in other public polling, suggesting it could be a long night in Ohio tomorrow.

The last Fox News poll of the race, conducted on Oct. 23, showed Kasich ahead 47-43. Another Fox poll from Oct. 16 showed Kasich ahead 49-43.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 48.8-45.7.

OH-GOV

Ohio Poll Shows Ted Strickland Closing, But Not Enough To Win

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 1, 2010, 11:25AM

OH Gov. Ted Strickland

A new round of the "Ohio Poll" from the University Of Cincinnati confirms incumbent Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) momentum against Republican John Kasich, but the pollster reports Strickland's surge is likely not enough to keep the Democrat in office for a second term.

The new survey, conducted among likely voters over the weekend, shows Kasich ahead 52-47. The last poll from the school, conducted in early October, showed Kasich ahead 51-43.

Despite Strickland's movement to close in on the Republican, the pollster "projects victories for Republican candidates" in both the Buckeye State's gubernatorial and Senate races.

The governor's race has become one of the most closely-watched of the final days of the 2010 campaign, with Democrats hoping Strickland can hold off Kasich despite the state's lagging economy and general malaise. A win in Ohio would be some good news for Democrats on a night many expect to be full of bad news for the party.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 48.9-45.9.

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OH-GOV

Dem Strickland Erases GOPer Kasich's Big Lead In Ohio Governor's Race

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 9:47AM

John Kasich

A new Quinnipiac poll suggests Ohio Governor Ted Strickland has almost erased a once-significant gap over his GOP rival John Kasich.

The survey of 848 likely voters gives Kasich a narrow 47-46 lead over the incumbent Democrat. Compare that to the last Quinnipiac poll, conducted just over a week ago, which gave Kasich a significant 49-43 lead over Strickland, and it suggests rapid tightening in the days before the election.

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OH-GOV

Polls Show Late Surge For Strickland In OH-GOV, But Kasich Narrowly Ahead

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 3:47PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

The Ohio gubernatorial race is tightening in the final days of the campaign, with incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland seriously cutting into the lead of Republican former Rep. John Kasich in two separate polls.

The new Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll gives Kasich 49%, Strickland 47%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.3% margin of error. In the previous Dispatch poll from early September, Kasich led by 49%-37% -- meaning that Kasich's support has stayed the same, while Strickland has made an enormous net gain.

In Public Policy Polling's (D) survey, Kasich has 49% to Strickland's 48%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.7% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from late August, Kasich had a much stronger lead of 50%-40%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Kasich a lead of 48.1%-45.6%, but with some clear recent momentum to Strickland's blue line against Kasich's red one. Will it be enough to change the result?

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OH-GOV

Polls: GOPer Kasich Holds Lead In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 4:18PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Two newly released polls on the Ohio gubernatorial race find Republican former Rep. John Kasich on top of Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. A Rasmussen survey has the Republican leading 48%-44%, while a SurveyUSA poll has the contest favoring Kasich 49%-44%, with Libertarian Ken Matesz earning 3% and Green Party candidate Dennis Spisak polling at 1%.

When Rasmussen looked at this race two weeks ago, Kasich was on top 48%-45%, while SurveyUSA's last poll of the race from mid-September found him leading with 52% versus Strickland's 40%, Spisak's 3%, and Matesz's 2%.

The margin of error for both surveys is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

OH-GOV

Polls: GOPer Kasich Leads Dem Strickland In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 19, 2010, 4:03PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Two new polls are out today on the Ohio gubernatorial race, and Republican former Rep. John Kasich finds himself atop both. In a Quinnipiac poll, the Republican leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by 10 points, 51%-41%. The margin is slightly narrower in the new Fox News Poll (conducted by Rasmussen offshoot Pulse Opinion Research), which has the incumbent Democrat trailing by six points, 49%-43%.

Both new sets of numbers show very little movement from these pollsters' last looks at the race: Fox News' October 9 poll had Kasich ahead 47%-42% and Quinnipiac's October 3 survey had him up 50%-41%.

The TPM Poll Average finds Kasich at 48.8% and Strickland at 43.0%.

The margin of error for the latest Quinnipiac and Fox News surveys are ±2.8 and ±3.0 percentage points, respectively.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

OH-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Strickland Down Only 3 In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 13, 2010, 11:30AM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race finds Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland well within striking distance of Republican former Rep. John Kasich.

The latest survey shows the incumbent governor behind 48%-45%-- within the survey's margin of error of ±4.0 percentage points. When Rasmussen took a look at the race on September 27, Kasich was ahead by a more significant eight-point margin, 50%-42%.

The TPM Poll Average still shows Kasich ahead in the contest 48.7%-42.5%.

OH-GOV

Tightening Race Makes For Snippy Final Debate In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 11:06AM

John Kasich

The nominees for governor in Ohio met in their final debate of the race last night, and according to reports from the ground, the narrow gap in the polls made for some fireworks. Republican nominee John Kasich leads incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) by a margin of 48.9-42.2 in the TPM Poll Average, but Democrats say the momentum is with them and predict they'll win in the end. Polls suggest that's something of a Pollyannaesque view of the situation, perhaps, but it seems the numbers were good enough to provoke some jabs from Strickland last night.

The chief issue is the economy, and that was the focus of much of the back-and-forth at the debate, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.

"The free-fall has been stopped and all you and your friends want to do is just criticize and say no, no, no," Strickland said, addressing Kasich and attempting to tie him to national GOP rhetoric. "While we have been working here in Ohio to create jobs, you were working on Wall Street to outsource our jobs. I think the people of Ohio can tell the difference between the two of us."

Kasich's jabs came on the issue of tax increases, the subject all GOP pols likely fantasize about debating when they dream at night.

"You actually have been asleep at the wheel," Kasich said to Strickland, according to the Plain Dealer. "If you had come out of the box when you were elected governor and did what you promised, which was turn Ohio around, you would have created a government that is more effective and efficient and dealt with the tax situation."

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OH-GOV

Ohio GOPer Uses Actor To Portray Disgruntled Worker In GOV Ad (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 7, 2010, 8:59AM

From a Kasich campaign ad, "400,000."

Democrats in Ohio say that Republican gubernatorial nominee John Kasich can't find a single steelworker to back up his claim that blue collar-workers are upset at Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) administration. Yesterday, a C-list actor helped them make their case.

Meet Chip Redden, 818,906 on IMDB's STARmeter: journeyman actor, strip club aficionado and, apparently, the best approximation of a hard-hat wearing Ohio worker Kasich's money could buy.

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OH-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Dem Strickland Trails, Struggling With Independents In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 5, 2010, 9:17AM

OH Gov. Ted Strickland

The new Quinnipiac University poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race shows incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) closing the gap with his opponent, Republican nominee John Kasich, but still trailing badly among the all-important independent vote.

The Q poll of likely voters shows Kasich ahead 50-41. The last poll of the race taken by the firm, released in mid-September, showed Kasich ahead 54-37. Strickland's momentum here echoes other recent polls of the contest that have shown Strickland picking up steam. The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich leading 49.6-41.5.

Despite the apparent good news here for Dems, the new Q poll suggests that Strickland still has quite an uphill climb in the final four weeks of campaigning.

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OH-GOV

Second Poll Shows Tight Race In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 28, 2010, 3:12PM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

Rumors of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's political demise may have been greatly exaggerated. A new Fox News poll conducted by a Rasmussen firm over the weekend shows Strickland just two points behind Republican nominee John Kasich among likely voters.

Kasich leads 45-43 in the poll. Though Democrats generally shy away from both Fox News and Rasmussen, the combination of both seemed to please Strickland's camp, which sent out links to the poll earlier today. That's probably because the poll is the second to shoot down the truly awful poll numbers Strickland was facing just a couple weeks ago. Kasich seemed to be running away with the race. No longer, says Fox.

"Kasich's lead of six points last week was cut down to 2 points," the pollster reports, adding that Kasich "has run into some bumps."

Yesterday, a University of Cincinnati poll showed Strickland was down by just four points.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich leading the race 49.9-41.1.

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OH-GOV

Poll: Strickland Within Four In OH-GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 3:40PM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

The Ohio Senate race may be looking like a runaway for the GOP, but the Buckeye State's gubernatorial fight could still be interesting, according to a new poll from the University of Cincinnati out this weekend.

The poll of likely voters taken last week shows Republican nominee John Kasich leading incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 49-45. A previous poll taken by the university in May showed Strickland ahead 49-44. Since then, polls have shown Kasich with the momentum. Still, with other recent polls showing Kasich ahead by double-digits, Strickland seems to think the university poll -- which is co-sponsored by several newspapers in the state -- is cause for celebration.

"Clearly the race for governor is tightening up -- a contest which takes place as Ohio struggles to lift itself out of a severe economic downturn (unemployment stood at 10.1 percent in August) and a looming multi-billion dollar budget hole," the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. "But there is good news and bad news for the incumbent governor in the fact that the race is now close."

The paper quotes a pollster who says "the fact is, for an incumbent governor, it's a little bit late in the year to be under 50 percent support." For his part, Strickland seemed more than pleased by the numbers.

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OH-Gov

Ohio Dem Gov. Strickland Campaign: Tax Cuts Debate No Big Deal For Us

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 23, 2010, 12:52PM

OH Gov. Ted Strickland

Some Democratic strategists may be worried that by abandoning the debate over the Bush tax cuts on Capitol Hill, party leaders have lost an opportunity to battle Republicans out on the campaign trail over an issue that strikes at the economic concerns at the center of this election. Those Democrats would not be the ones advising Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland in his bid to win a second term.

"It doesn't make that much difference one way or the other," Strickland campaign manager Aaron Pickrell told me on a conference call with reporters today. I asked Pickrell if the debate over tax cuts in Washington was helping or hurting his troubled campaign. Pickrell said that in a governor's race -- even one that appears to hinge on the national issues of jobs and the economy -- the hemming and hawing over tax cuts doesn't really connect with Ohio voters.

"The national narrative really doesn't filter into it," Pickrell said.

Ironically, the purpose of the call was to announce a new Strickland ad that has the governor staring into the camera starkly channeling the national frustration over the economy.

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OH-Gov

Fox News Poll: GOPers Continue To Lead Dems In OH-GOV And OH-SEN

Marc Kilstein | September 21, 2010, 1:04PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Recent polls have suggested that Ohio's high-profile Democratic candidates are falling increasingly behind in the Senate and gubernatorial races, with no indication of a coming momentum shift. A new Fox News poll doesn't really change that narrative.

The survey, conducted by Rasmussen offshoot Pulse Opinion Research using an automated dialing system, finds both Democratic nominees, Gov. Ted Strickland and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, behind in the polls. Republican former Rep. John Kasich is leading Strickland by six points in the gubernatorial race, 47%-41%. In the Senate race, Republican nominee and former Rep. Rob Portman is up big on Fisher, 49%-36%.

When Fox polled both of these contests on September 11, Kasich was found on top of the gubernatorial race, 48%-43% and Portman was ahead of Fisher in the Senate race, 48%-41%. In other polling last week, Strickland was found to be as much as 17 points behind Kasich and Fisher was seen trailing by 20.

The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race shows Kasich ahead of Strickland 49.8%-40.9%. For the Senate race, the TPM Poll Average has Portman ahead 48.6%-39.1%.

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OH-GOV

Trouble Brewing For Ohio Dems: Polls Show Major GOP Momentum In Key Races

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 17, 2010, 8:45AM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

The Republican nominees for Governor and Senator in the crucial presidential swing state of Ohio appear poised to run away with their respective races, according to the latest polls. The situation is not as dire for the Democratic nominee for Senate, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, as it appears to be for Gov. Ted Strickland, who public polls suggest could be in free fall against his Republican opponent, former Rep. John Kasich. But neither Dems look to be in great shape.

Democrats on the ground in Ohio scoff at the notion that the situation is especially bad for their high-profile Democratic candidates, but the numbers really don't look good. And there's at least one report that national Democrats could be considering pulling up stakes in the Buckeye State and sending valuable resources elsewhere to shore up Democratic candidates with better chances in other states.

Publicly released polls of likely voters from Quinnipiac University, CNN/Time and SurveyUSA this week show Strickland down big against his Republican opponent. The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 50.0-40.9. (The average doesn't include the SurveyUSA poll which showed Kasich leading Strickland 52-40 on a general election ballot featuring Green and Libertarian nominees.) Trendlines show that Kasich is taking off like a rocket lately, while Strickland is actually losing support.

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OH-GOV

Quinnipiac Poll: GOPer Kasich Leads Big In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | September 16, 2010, 12:37PM

John Kasich

A Quinnipiac poll out this morning finds Republican former Rep. John Kasich leading Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by double-digits in Ohio's gubernatorial race.

The survey of likely voters has the Republican way out in front, with a commanding 17-point lead over the incumbent Strickland. The 54%-37% margin is by far the largest of any poll conducted for this race over recent months. Quinnipiac hasn't polled this race since late June, when it had Strickland on top of the race, 43%-38%. More recent polls have suggested everything's coming up Kasich -- a September 14 CNN/Time poll found Kasich ahead 51%-44%, a September 13 SurveyUSA poll gave the Republican a 52%-40% advantage, and a September 13 Rasmussen survey showed him up seven.

The margin of error of the Quinnipiac poll is ±3.6 percentage points. The TPM Poll Average has Kasich holding a 50.0%-40.9% advantage in the contest.

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OH-GOV

Fox News Poll: Kasich Ahead By 5 In OH-GOV

Howard Polikoff | September 14, 2010, 6:34PM

John Kasich

Fox News has released a poll of the Ohio gubernatorial race showing Republican John Kasich ahead of Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland 48%-43%.

The five-point Kasich lead is the smallest the race has been since July. There is no prior Fox News poll of this race, but this poll was conducted through an offshoot of Rasmussen, Pulse Opinion Research. The last Rasmussen poll, from Aug. 30, showed Kasich up 52%-40%.

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OH-SEN

Ohio Polls Show GOPers Ahead In SEN, GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 6, 2010, 5:23PM

Ohio Senate candidate Rob Portman (R)

It's a good time to be running for statewide office in Ohio if you're a Republican. That's the message from a pair of polls out this weekend showing Republican nominees for Senate and governor in Ohio with big leads over their Democratic rivals.

The polls were conducted by the Columbus Dispatch Aug. 25-Sept. 3. Surveys were mailed to respondents by the paper and then returned. The total number of respondents is 1,622 and the margin of error is 2.2%.

In the race for Ohio's open Senate seat, Republican Rob Portman is leading Democratic nominee Lee Fisher 50-37 in the Dispatch poll. The TPM Poll Average for that race shows Portman ahead 45.7-40.0.

Recent surveys have shown Portman gaining momentum in the contest as the final two months of campaigning begins:

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OH-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Kasich Increases Lead In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | August 18, 2010, 11:12AM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

A Rasmussen poll released this morning shows former Rep. John Kasich leading Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by double-digits in Ohio's gubernatorial race.

The new survey shows a 10-point lead for Kasich, 52%-42%, which is the largest lead the Republican has had over the last few months of polling. The survey includes leaners' preferential candidate, which was determined through a follow-up question posed to those who did not initially indicate support for either nominee. Kasich leads by 8 points, 48%-40%, on respondents' initial preference. An August 2 Rasmussen poll found a much narrower gap between the two candidates, with Kasich only up 3 points, 45%-42%.

The TPM Poll Average has Kasich ahead in the contest, 46.6%-42.2%. The margin of error of the latest Rasmussen poll is ±4 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

2010 elections

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Kasich Ahead 3 In OH-GOV Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 5, 2010, 10:08AM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Ohio governor's race shows former Rep. John Kasich's (R-OH) lead over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland narrowing to the thinnest margin reported by the pollster in months. The survey gives Kasich a 45%-42% edge over Strickland.

Rasmussen's June and July polling of the race showed Kasich with 5- and 7-point leads over Strickland, who's been under fire from the Kasich campaign for presiding over a state economy that has shed hundreds of thousands of jobs. Kasich, meanwhile, has taken heat for his previous work with Lehman Brothers, where he was a managing director.

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OH-Gov

Kasich Ad: 'I Didn't Run Lehman Brothers' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | July 19, 2010, 11:07AM

Former Rep. and current candidate for Governor John Kasich (R-OH)

Former Rep. John Kasich, the Republican nominee for governor of Ohio, has a new TV ad in which he tells the people of the Buckeye State an important message: He did not run Lehman Brothers.

"Ohio's lost 400,000 jobs under Ted Strickland. He can't campaign on his record, so he and his friends try to tear me down," Kasich says to the camera. "Here's the truth: I didn't run Lehman Brothers. I was one of 700 managing directors. I worked in a two-man office in Columbus."

Kasich has been attacked by Strickland and the Democrats for his time with Lehman Brothers, when he was a managing director in Columbus for their investment-banking division. And clearly Kasich wants to change the subject back to the bad economy. The TPM Poll Average currently shows Strickland edging Kasich by 43.3%-42.9%.

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OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Kasich Leads Dem Strickland In OH-GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 5, 2010, 1:10PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Despite a slew of negative press over the past two weeks, former Rep. John Kasich (R) is building a lead on incumbent Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today which shows Kasich leading Strickland 47-40.

Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters on June 29. The new poll has a margin of error of 4.5%. A similar poll taken by Rasmussen on June 3 showed Kasich ahead 47-42. But other recent polling of the race has shown the race to be closer than that, and some show Strickland in the lead.

The TPM Poll Average shows the race to be a dead heat (Strickland's ahead in the average by a margin of 43.3-42.9.)

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OH-Gov

Poll Gives GOPer Kasich Slight Edge In OH-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | June 29, 2010, 4:58PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

The new survey of the Ohio gubernatorial race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican former Rep. John Kasich edging Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. Other polling shows Strickland ahead, though -- and in either case, this race is definitely one of the big toss-ups of the year.

The numbers: Kasich 43%, Strickland 41%. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. The previous PPP numbers from March showed Kasich ahead by 42%-37%.

Interestingly, this Dem firm's poll showing the Republican ahead is being released on the same day as a non-partisan Quinnipiac poll, which showed Strickland ahead by by 43%-38%. That said, these results aren't all that far apart in statistical terms, so these divergent results in a way just further show the closeness of the race. The TPM Poll Average has Strickland ahead by 44.3%-41.8%.

OH-Gov

Poll: Dem Gov. Strickland Leads GOP Challenger In Ohio

Eric Lach | June 29, 2010, 11:53AM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Ohio governor's race shows incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland with a 43%-38% lead over Republican challenger John Kasich.

Quinnipiac found that Kasich remains unknown to half of Ohio voters.

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2010 elections

Against The Odds: How One Dem Incumbent Is Holding His Own In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 16, 2010, 9:41AM

OH Gov. Ted Strickland

Could Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland be a model Democratic incumbent for 2010? Saddled with a lagging economy, a dyed-in-the-wool conservative opponent and that whole "Pictures Of Me Standing With President Obama" thing, Strickland is running a strong race in a state where a Democratic governor hasn't won a second term since the mid-1980s.

Strickland's background as a rural Congressman is one factor in his current success. For more than a decade, Strickland represented rural and rustbelt voters in Ohio's 6th District, experience his campaign says helps him target voters outside the traditional Democratic base in Ohio.

His Republican opponent, former Rep. and Fox News host John Kasich, is giving him some help in that regard as well. Though he's about as conservative as they come, he's finding that one of his few forays into bipartisanship years ago is costing him dearly. In 1994 Kasich voted in Congress for President Bill Clinton's assault weapons ban. Sixteen years later, the NRA has endorsed Strickland in the gubernatorial race. Strickland, unsurprisingly, is making sure rural voters know it.

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2010 elections

Poll: Dems Lead In Key Ohio Races

Eric Kleefeld | March 31, 2010, 10:43AM

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D-OH) and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D-OH)

The new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio shows the Democratic candidates leading in the gubernatorial race, plus the election for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich -- with the potential for a Democratic turnaround in the wake of the health care bill's passage.

In the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner were each tested against Republican Rob Portman, a former Congressman and former Bush administration official. Fisher leads Portman by 41%-37%, and Brunner has an edge of 38%-37%. In February, Portman led Fisher by 40%-37%, and led Brunner by 40%-35%. The margin of error is ±2.5%. The TPM Poll Average gives Portman an edge of 39.6%-38.6% over Fisher, and a 39.4%-38.1% edge over Brunner, with recent movement in the Democrats' direction.

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