CO-GOV

PPP Poll: With Or Without Tancredo, Dem Hickenlooper Leads In CO-GOV Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 11, 2010, 4:06PM

CO-GOV Democratic Nominee John Hickenlooper

A new PPP (D) poll of the Colorado governor's race shows the Democratic mayor of Denver John Hickenlooper out in front -- with or without third-party candidate Tom Tancredo in the mix. In a one-on-one match-up with Republican nominee Dan Maes, who won last night's GOP primary, Hickenlooper leads 50%-38%. With Tancredo in the race, Hickenlooper leads with 48%, Maes 23%, and Tancredo 22%.

As past polling has shown, the addition of Tancredo effectively splits the GOP vote, giving Hickenlooper a considerable advantage.

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14th Amendment

Tom Tancredo Comes Out Against Repealing 14th Amendment

Thomas Rhiel | August 11, 2010, 3:11PM

Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO)

It turns out that Tom Tancredo, a man not known for his moderation when it comes to immigration policy, actually opposes changing the Constitution in order to end birthright citizenship. In an interview with CNN, the former Republican congressman and current Colorado gubernatorial candidate said that the debate over the 14th Amendment is "almost a ruse." Instead of changing the Constitution to put a stop to so-called "anchor babies," Tancredo says he would instigate a good old-fashioned court battle.

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14th Amendment

Poll: Half Of Americans Wants To Amend Constitution To End Birthright Citizenship

Thomas Rhiel | August 11, 2010, 1:30PM

Anti-immigration protesters march in Fort Worth, Texas

A new CNN poll finds the public divided on whether the Constitution should be amended to end birthright citizenship. The survey of 1,009 adults reports that 49% favor changing the Constitution to prevent the children of non-citizens from gaining automatic citizenship when born in the United States, while 51% oppose such a change.

Recently, a number of Republicans -- including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader John Boehner -- have opened the door to considering changes to the 14th Amendment, which has guaranteed birthright citizenship since 1868. Several Republicans claim the amendment rewards illegal immigrants who have so-called "anchor babies," children born as citizens in the United States to non-citizen parents. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said the push to repeal the 14th Amendment is evidence that Republicans have "either taken leave of their senses or their principles."

The poll has a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points.

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Ben Quayle

Dan Quayle's Son In Frightening Ad: Obama Is 'The Worst President In History' (VIDEO)

Thomas Rhiel | August 11, 2010, 12:14PM

AZ-03 House candidate Ben Quayle's (R) new ad.

Republican Ben Quayle, son of former gaffe-prone vice president Dan Quayle, is running for Congress in Arizona's third district. He's out with a new TV ad! And it's so crazy.

The ad opens with a close-up on Quayle staring intensely into the camera. "Barack Obama is the worst president in history," he says. "In my generation, we'll inherit a weakened country. Drug cartels in Mexico, tax cartels in D.C....what's happened to America?"

Quayle, who's been sitting, dramatically stands up. "Somebody has to go to Washington and knock the hell out of the place." Yikes!

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CT-SEN

Richard Blumenthal Rolls Out First Post-Primary Ad (VIDEO)

Thomas Rhiel | August 11, 2010, 11:28AM

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal

Just hours after Republican Linda McMahon won the GOP's Senate primary in Connecticut last night, Democratic nominee Richard Blumenthal is out with a new television spot. The ad focuses on Blumenthal, the state's attorney general, who touts his record of fighting against corporate interests.

"As I look at Washington D.C., I don't see a lot of people standing up for the people, against the special interests," Blumenthal says in the ad, citing battles against the pharmaceutical industry, utilities, and tobacco companies. "The people of Connecticut know me, and one thing they know about me for sure is that I will fight for them," he says. "No matter how big or powerful the foe, I will stand up for them."

Watch the ad:

McMahon, meanwhile, told ABC's Good Morning America that she's willing to spend up to $50 million of her own money to defeat Blumenthal.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Bringing The Smackdown: Linda McMahon's Campaign For Senate, And Her Colorful Pro-Wrestling Past]

The TPM Poll Average shows Blumenthal leading McMahon, a former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, 51.4%-39.6%. Check out TPMDC's full coverage of the race here.

2010 elections

Poll: Dem Murray And GOPer Rossi In Good Shape To Win WA-SEN 'Top Two' Primary

Thomas Rhiel | August 11, 2010, 11:00AM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Washington's Senate primary is next Tuesday, and with a week left before voters head to the polls, it looks like Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi will advance to the general election, a new SurveyUSA poll finds. Washington state has an open primary, meaning the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to compete in November. In SurveyUSA's new poll, Murray leads with 41% of the vote and Rossi gets 33%. Clint Didier, a Tea Partier and former NFL player, is a distant third with 11%.

Past polling of the race has also shown Murray and Rossi to have commanding leads over other primary contenders. The last time SurveyUSA polled Washington, they found Murray with 37% and Rossi with 33%, while Didier lagged behind in third with 5%.

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FL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Rubio And Crist In Tight FL-SEN Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 11, 2010, 10:11AM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

Rasmussen's new poll of the Florida Senate race contains some good news for Republican Marco Rubio -- sort of. Rubio, who's trailing Independent Gov. Charlie Crist in most polls, is up 38%-33% over Crist in Rasmussen's new survey when the Democrat in the race is Kendrick Meek, who trails with 21%. Against the other Democrat, Jeff Greene, Rubio doesn't fare as well -- he trails Crist 37%-36%, while Greene takes third with 20%.

When Rasmussen last polled the contest on July 21, Rubio's lead over Crist with Meek in the race was only two points, and with Greene in the race, Rubio was down two to Crist. The new poll, then, is a slight improvement for Rubio, albeit one within the poll's ±4.0-point margin of error.

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GA-GOV

Georgia's GOP Gov Race Too Close To Call With 99% Precincts Reporting

Thomas Rhiel | August 10, 2010, 11:29PM

GA GOV Republican candidates Nathan Deal and Karen Handel

The results are almost all in from Georgia's GOP gubernatorial runoff election -- and it's still too close to call.

With 99% of precincts reporting tonight, Ex-Rep. Nathan Deal leads Karen Handel 50.2%-49.8% -- a difference of just about 2,500 votes out of nearly 600,000 ballots counted so far.

The Associated Press has reportedly announced that it will not call the race tonight, as it remains too close to call.

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2010 elections

Indiana Democrat Bashes Obama In New Campaign Spot (VIDEO)

Thomas Rhiel | August 10, 2010, 4:18PM

A new ad from Joe Donnelly (D-IN)

A political TV ad railing against Nancy Pelosi and President Obama would hardly be out of place this election season. But from a Democrat?

Rep. Joe Donnelly, a sophomore Blue Dog Democrat from Indiana's 2nd district who's facing a tough challenge from state Rep. Jackie Walorski, is out with a new campaign ad targeting House Speaker Pelosi and President Obama for belonging to the "Washington crowd." The focus of the 30-second ad is immigration, with Donnelly voicing support for efforts to secure the border and opposition to legislation that would grant amnesty to illegal immigrants.

"Because no one should be ever rewarded for breaking the law," Donnelly says in the ad. "That may not be what the Washington crowd wants. But I don't work for them. I work for you." As Donnelly says the words "Washington crowd," the ad pans over a photograph of President Obama, Pelosi, and House Minority Leader John Boehner.

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CO-SEN

PPP Poll: Dem Bennet In Better Shape For CO-SEN General Election Than Romanoff

Thomas Rhiel | August 10, 2010, 1:46PM

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

If Sen. Michael Bennet comes out on top in today's Democratic Senate primary in Colorado, he'll be ahead against either of his potential Republican challengers, a new PPP (D) survey shows. Democrat Andrew Romanoff, on the other hand, will be in a slightly tougher spot if he wins.

In its general election match-ups, the new PPP survey shows Bennet, the appointed incumbent, ahead of Republican Jane Norton 46%-40% and edging Republican Ken Buck 46%-43%. Andrew Romanoff, the Democratic challenger who sold his house to help fund his campaign, is down a point to Norton and up a point against Buck. The poll's margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points.

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IN-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Coats Up 21 Points In IN-SEN Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 10, 2010, 12:37PM

Former Senator Dan Coats (R) and Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), candidates for US Senate in Indiana

In the race to fill retiring Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) seat in Indiana, Republican former Sen. Dan Coats has a considerable lead over Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth, a new Rasmussen survey finds. The poll has Coats ahead of Ellsworth 50%-29%.

Coats's 21-point margin over Ellsworth is identical to the one he had in Rasmussen's last survey of the race from July 8, and it's even more favorable to Coats than the results from a Coats internal poll released last week, which showed Coats up 50%-35%.

The TPM Poll Average has Coats ahead 50.0%-31.2%. The margin of error of the latest Rasmussen poll is ±4.5 percentage points.

Check out TPMDC's full coverage of the race here.

GA-GOV

Last-Minute Poll: Deal Pulls Even With Handel In GOP GA-GOV Runoff

Thomas Rhiel | August 10, 2010, 10:28AM

GA GOV Republican candidates Nathan Deal and Karen Handel

Nathan Deal has pulled out in front of Karen Handel in today's GOP gubernatorial runoff in Georgia, a last-minute Landmark survey (PDF) finds. The poll shows Deal edging Handel 43.7%-41.9%, a lead that fall's within the poll's 3.9-point margin of error.

Landmark's last poll of the race, from August 1, showed Handel in the lead, 45.8%-37.1%.

Handel seems to have the wind at her back going into today's runoff election -- she won more votes in July's primary and boasts an endorsement from Sarah Palin. Landmark's new numbers, though, may give Deal supporters a reason to be hopeful as they await tonight's results.

The TPM Poll Average gives Handel a slim 43.7%-41.6% lead. Check out TPMDC's full coverage of the race here.

CO-SEN

Outside Groups Put Up Late Ads In CO-SEN Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 9, 2010, 1:27PM

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Sen. candidate Jane Norton (R-CO)

Outside groups are making their presences felt in the closing days of the Colorado primaries as two new ad campaigns -- one attacking Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, the other praising Republican Jane Norton -- hit the airwaves.

One series of ads, sponsored by a 527 group called "New Leadership For Colorado," slams Bennet for voting to "bail out Wall Street" and for voting against benefits for seniors. The ads (which you can hear on the 527's website) are made to sound like news reports -- and that's not the only reason they're misleading:

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CT-Gov

Quinnipiac Poll: Connecticut's Dem Gov Primary A Toss-Up

Thomas Rhiel | August 9, 2010, 10:21AM

CT Democratic Gov. candidates Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy.

It looks like Connecticut's Democratic gubernatorial primary will go right down to the wire. A new Quinnipiac survey of the race shows Ned Lamont edging Dan Malloy 45%-42% -- a statistical tie, given the poll's ±4.6-point margin of error. The primary is tomorrow.

While Lamont's support has hovered around 45% in the past month, Malloy's has jumped five points since July 13, when a Quinnipiac poll pegged his support at 37%. The TPM Poll Average shows Lamont leading 43.2%-33.0%.

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CT-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: McMahon Leads By 22 In GOP's CT-SEN Primary

Thomas Rhiel | August 9, 2010, 9:18AM

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) and Republican CT Senate Candidate Linda McMahon.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Linda McMahon -- the former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO -- maintaining her considerable lead over former Rep. Rob Simmons and financial commentator Peter Schiff going into tomorrow's Connecticut Republican Senate primary. The poll gives McMahon 50%, Simmons 28%, and Schiff 15%.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Bringing The Smackdown: Linda McMahon's Campaign For Senate, And Her Colorful Pro-Wrestling Past]

McMahon's 22-point lead in the latest poll is bigger than her 17-point lead in last week's Quinnipiac survey, although the difference is just outside the poll's ±3.8-point margin of error. Quinnipiac, in fact, is the only public pollster to have looked at this race so far, and their numbers have been more or less consistent since June. McMahon has been polling between 45% and 52%, Simmons between 25% and 30%, and Schiff between 13% and 15%.

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