
The friendly email Republican Trey Grayson got from Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) last Friday night, congratulating him on a new job, came amid a flood of similar messages. The Kentucky Secretary of State, and erstwhile Senate candidate, recently accepted a position as director of Harvard University's Institute of Politics. It was only the next day that Giffords' message took on a particular significance.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The night before she and 19 others were shot at an event in Tucson, Arizona, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) wrote a warm email to Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, where she told the Republican "we need to figure out how to tone our rhetoric and partisanship down."
Giffords remains in the hospital in critical condition after being shot in the head Saturday.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Turns out that Rand Paul -- who has been incensed over Jack Conway's suggestion that Paul's college hijinks are relevant to the Kentucky Senate race -- was very recently the candidate making attack ads aimed at the decisions another man made in his college years.
Back in the hotly contested Republican primary, which pitted Paul against establishment pick Trey Grayson, Paul had a field day making an issue out of Grayson's college-age support for Bill Clinton. Grayson, the current Kentucky Secretary of State, told a group of students in 2008 that when he cast his first presidential ballot in 1992, at age 20, he cast it for Bill Clinton. Most other Kentuckians did, too -- Clinton won the state that year, and did it again four years later.
Grayson said he became a Republican later, "when he realized he agreed more often with the GOP on issues."
As our Eric Kleefeld reported back in February, Paul had a field day with the story, fielding a TV ad calling Grayson and Clinton "dangerous allies" and highlighting the fact that Grayson "admitted to voting for draft-dodger Bill Clinton."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)If it looked like things were tough for Kentucky's Republican Senate nominee Rand Paul at the end of the week, they didn't get much easier this weekend. He canceled a scheduled interview on NBC's Meet the Press, which returned the favor with a segment wondering if his bad week left him a "weaker candidate than he was Tuesday night" when he walloped his rival Trey Grayson in the GOP primary.
Protesters turned out at the Paul-Grayson unity rally on Saturday, local GOPers said he had hit a "rocky start" and top Republicans in Washington did not seem eager to defend the party's newly crowned nominee, distancing themselves from Paul's remarks about the Civil Rights Act.
RNC Chairman Michael Steele was the harshest, saying on Fox News Sunday in response to Paul's comments on discrimination that the country already has "litigated the issue of separate but equal" and praising his own Republican party on civil rights. "I think his philosophy is misplaced in these times ... But I think in this case Rand Paul's philosophy got in the way of reality," Steele said.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)As if it wasn't bad enough for Trey Grayson, the establishment candidate, to apparently lose the Republican primary in the Kentucky Senate race to conservative Rand Paul -- he even lost his home county. In a landslide.
Boone County, where Grayson lives with his family, went to Paul 67%, with all precincts reporting. Grayson only got 31% of the vote.
Overall, with 32% of precincts reporting, Paul has 59% of the votes to Grayson's 37%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Updated at 11:07 ET
The tea party movement got its best chance at winning a seat in the U.S. Senate tonight when Kentucky voters chose Rand Paul as the the GOP nominee. As expected, Paul has won decisively, dealing a blow to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOP establishment, which spent much time and effort trying defeat Paul's insurgent campaign and secure the nomination for Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.
Rand currently leads Grayson by 59% to 35% with 99 percent of the precincts reporting.
Paul faces a general election campaign that will put the purest form of the tea party message on the Senate ballot so far this year. Democrats are enjoying the opportunity to mock McConnell for losing a battle with the ultra-right in his home state, but they haven't said much about how they plan to beat Paul themselves. Republicans, meanwhile, have said they're ready to stand behind Paul and say signs are good he'll hold the seat for the GOP.
The polls give Republicans reason to be confident -- Paul has performed well against Democrats in hypothetical matchups all year, and definitely starts the general election race as the frontrunner. In a matchup with Democratic nominee Jack Conway, the TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead by a margin of 44.7-38.4.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)This is not the political theme you're looking for. Pay no attention to those three tough primaries on the Democratic side, or Richard Blumenthal's problems in Connecticut. The Democratic National Committee is spinning away from some of the big stories of the day, telling reporters the real national trend is what's happening among Kentucky Republicans.
The DNC this afternoon will send out a memo titled "It's On: Who Will Win the McConnell vs. DeMint Leadership Proxy Battle In Kentucky?" The Dems think that Rand Paul's likely win in Kentucky will diminish Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) but also push the Republican party to the furthest-right fringes.
Kentucky Democrats, meanwhile, are slugging it out as well.
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This is the day we've been waiting for. By the end of Tuesday night, we'll know if Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) could still have a job next year, if angry progressives are a threat and if the tea partiers will hand Mitch McConnell a defeat in his home state.
It's 2010's first Super Tuesday -- and the political landscape could look much different when all is said and done.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With just one day to go until the Republican Senate primary in Kentucky, Rand Paul still holds a big lead, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released this morning.
Paul leads Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson 52-34 in the PPP survey.
The TPM Poll Average for Tuesday's race shows Paul leading Grayson 42.3% to 25.3%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)For almost a year, Mitch McConnell's protege Trey Grayson has been the standard bearer of the state GOP establishment in the Kentucky senate primary. But today on Meet The Press, his benefactor seemed to suggest that that the outcome of Grayson's battle with Tea Party favorite Rand Paul might not matter much one way or another.
"We don't have incumbency on the line in Kentucky," he said. "We have two non-incumbents running for an open seat."
That's probably not the view of many of Paul's supporters. They appear poised turn the race in McConnell's home state into the second anti-establishment victory over the GOP mainstream since Sen. Bob Bennett was deposed at the Utah Republican convention May 8.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)With polls showing Rand Paul ahead by double digits in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary, the Republican party establishment that once feared him is now ready to hug and make up. Less than a year ago, twenty-three Republican Senators -- including the chair of the NRSC, John Cornyn -- held a joint fundraiser for the party's choice in the race, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Now, Republican operatives in Washington say they'd be happy to have Paul on the ticket.
At the RNC's annual state party chair's meeting this week, party leaders from across the country were chatting about the Kentucky race, which pits the tea party -- and supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul -- against the establishment GOP represented by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But as the race has shifted in favor of Paul, top Republicans are preparing to embrace him the same way they embraced Marco Rubio when it became clear the voters were with him in Florida.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced today that it's endorsing Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson in the state's May 18 Senate primary.
The TPM Poll Average shows Rand Paul leading Grayson in the Republican Senate primary 42.3% to 25.3%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Kentucky Senate Republican primary is continuing to heat up, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) officially endorsing the establishment favorite Trey Grayson -- and another poll showing insurgent candidate Rand Paul way ahead in the race.
McConnell said in a statement that Grayson, the Kentucky Secretary of State, "has a track record of leading by example." This crucial endorsement for Grayson comes just a day after James Dobson dramatically retracted his endorsement of Grayson, and claimed that senior Republicans had misled him about Paul's views on abortion.
Meanwhile, the new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Paul continuing to maintain a huge lead in the race.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In a major development in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary, James Dobson has retracted his endorsement of establishment favorite Trey Grayson and switched to Tea Party insurgent Rand Paul -- and Dobson claims that top Republicans had misled him about Paul's positions.
"Senior members of the GOP told me Dr. Paul is pro-choice and that he opposes many conservative perspectives, so I endorsed his opponent," Dobson said. "But now I've received further information from OB/GYNs in Kentucky whom I trust, and from interviewing the candidate himself."
Dobson had endorsed Grayson just last week, saying at the time that he was "the only candidate with the conviction to lead on the issues that matter to Kentucky families." The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 42.3%-25.3% in the Republican primary, which will be held on May 18.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)James Dobson, the founder and former head of Focus on the Family, has endorsed Trey Grayson in the Republican Senate primary in Kentucky, involving himself in a key primary that is pitting the GOP establishment against Grayson's Tea Party-courting opponent, Rand Paul.
"Trey Grayson is the only candidate with the conviction to lead on the issues that matter to Kentucky families," Dobson said in a statement. "His unwavering commitment to the sanctity of human life and the family resonates with me. I know that he will be a leader on these issues, not just another Senator who checks the box."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Republican primary in the Kentucky Senate race is shaping up to be a proxy fight between the neoconservative wing of the Republican party and the more libertarian strands. Key neocons are backing Secretary of State Trey Grayson over conservative activist Rand Paul -- and attacking Paul by criticizing his father Ron Paul's (R-TX) stances on Iraq, 9/11 and Guantanamo Bay.
Rudy Giuliani endorsed Trey Grayson yesterday, boldly vilifying the opposition: "He [Grayson] is not part of the 'blame America first' crowd that wants to bestow the rights of U.S. citizens on terrorists and point fingers at America for somehow causing 9/11." Another big-name neoconservative endorsing Grayson is former Vice President Dick Cheney, who in his own endorsement spoke of Grayson's dedication to keeping Guantanamo open and upholding the surges in Iraq and Afghanistan.
TPMDC asked Rand Paul campaign manager David Adams for comment on efforts by Giuliani and others to tie Rand Paul to his father's foreign policy stances, and whether this might reflect an effort to stop a candidate with ties to Ron Paul. "I wouldn't speculate on what their motivations are," said Adams. "We'll put our endorsements up against anybody, and so far I think it's clear that Sarah Palin and Sen. Jim Bunning and the conservative pro-life groups that have endorsed Rand far outweigh what Secretary Grayson's been able to pull together."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)Both of the Republican candidates for Senate in Kentucky spent Tax Day courting the Tea Party vote -- with Rand Paul's campaign crediting the movement with his own success in the polls as an insurgent candidate.
Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and a son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), spoke to two Tea Party events Thursday, one in Louisville and the other in Lexington. Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who began as the frontrunner for the nomination but has fallen behind in the polls, attended the Louisville event and another in Covington.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Kentucky finds that Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), has been succeeding in his anti-establishment, Tea Party-style campaign for the Republican nomination for Senate.
The numbers: Paul 40%, Secretary of State Trey Grayson 28%. In the last Kos/R2K poll, conducted back in late August and early September 2009, Grayson was ahead by 40%-25%. Grayson started the race as the clear choice of the party establishment, but Paul has thus far been able to mobilize conservative activists and bloggers. The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 42.3%-25.3% in the Republican primary.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rand Paul has a new ad in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary, slamming his rival Trey Grayson for having voted for Bill Clinton in 1992, and alleging that Grayson and President Obama are "dangerous allies." Grayson's spokesman fired back, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports -- by slamming Rand Paul for supporting his father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX).
The Paul ad blasts Grayson on national security. "He admitted to voting for draft-dodger Bill Clinton," the announcer says. "Worse, listen to what Grayson said about Barack Obama."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul, a conservative activist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), has just put out a press release officially announcing the endorsement of Sarah Palin. Paul also announced that his campaign has received a "generous contribution" from Palin's PAC.
"Governor Palin is providing tremendous leadership as the Tea Party movement and constitutional conservatives strive to take our country back," Paul said in the press release. "Sarah Palin is a giant in American politics. I am proud to receive her support."
Paul is running in the Republican primary against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is widely regarded to be the party establishment's favored candidate in the race.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new survey of Kentucky by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republicans the early advantage to hold on to this state's open GOP-held Senate seat in 2010, with both GOP candidates Rand Paul and Trey Grayson leading the two Democrats.
Paul, a conservative activist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), leads state Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo by identical margins of 42%-36%. Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of State, leads Conway by 40%-33% and Mongiardo by 44%-35%. The margin of error is ±2.8%.
A PPP survey released yesterday gave Paul a 44%-25% lead over Grayson in the Republican primary, and Conway a 37%-33% edge over Mongiardo for the Democratic nomination.
PPP's Tom Jensen notes that the candidates are still largely unknown, with 38% having no opinion of Mongiardo, 51% with no opinion of Paul, 63% with no opinion of Conway, and 64% with no opinion of Grayson. "The dynamics of the race could change a lot as the eventual nominees become better known and voters in the state react favorably to them or not," Jensen writes. "For now though in a Republican state in what's shaping up to be a Republican year the Republicans are favored to hold this seat."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new survey of Kentucky by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Rand Paul, a conservative activist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), a huge lead over the establishment candidate in the Republican primary for Senate in 2010.
The numbers: Rand Paul 44%, Secretary of State Trey Grayson 25%. Grayson was recruited to run in place of two-term GOP Sen. Jim Bunning, who is retiring. Paul, however, has mobilized his campaign around the Tea Party movement and his outsider conservative message.
From the pollster's analysis: "Paul is winning the votes of conservatives by a 47-20 margin, while Grayson holds a 36-34 lead with moderates. Paul is having a particularly good amount of success with folks who think that the Republican Party in Washington has become too liberal -- his lead with them is 54-18."
The Democratic primary is a tight race with state Attorney General Jack Conway at 37%, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo at 33%, within the ±4.2% margin of error.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is taking sides in two key open-seat Republican primaries for Senate, Chris Cillizza reports, with an upcoming fundraiser for Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson and former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.
Both of these candidates are in primary races. Grayson is being opposed by Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), with similar small-government libertarian positions. Ayotte is running against businessmen Jim Bender and William Binnie, and former state Board of Education chairman Ovide Lamontagne.
In the Kentucky race, Rand Paul recently had a gaffe in which he failed to fully commit to supporting McConnell for Republican leader -- not the best move to make in McConnell's own state, where he is the biggest name in the state GOP.
Late Update: The Rand Paul campaign has given us this statement from the candidate:
After the primary, I will want to work with Senator McConnell. We will need each other. He and I agree on many issues such as the unconstitutionality of McCain-Feingold.PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)
Until then, it would be unfair of me to to ask Grayson to compete on his own merits, all by himself. I think the only way we can be evenly matched is for him to have significant help from DC insiders, PACs, and special interest money.
Even then, it will likely not be enough. 2010 will be the year of the outsider. The Tea Party movement wants reform of government and they are embracing our message of Term Limits, Balanced Budgets, and the Read the Bills Act.
Rand Paul, a candidate in the Republican primary for Senate from Kentucky, had a meeting yesterday with the state's top Republican, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell -- following a gaffe in which Paul failed to commit to supporting McConnell for GOP leader.
The meeting came after Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), made a gaffe in an interview this past weekend, when the ABC affiliate in Louisville asked whether he would support McConnell for Republican Leader, if given the choice of the very conservative Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). "I like both of them and I don't know that I could make a judgement," Paul said at the time, adding: "I have to win the primary first. So I don't think I'd make a judgement on how I'd vote for leader, but I think obviously Kentucky having a leader is good for Kentucky."
Paul's opponent in the primary, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, has pounced on him for this. Paul apparently worked to undo the damage. "I have nothing but high compliments about his job as minority leader," he told reporters. "I have no reason not to support him."
"We had a very cordial conversation," Paul explained "I think it's probably better not to go into any detail about what we talked about."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky finds that Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), has a narrow lead in the Republican primary for Senate against the establishment favorite, Secretary of State Trey Grayson.
The numbers: Paul 35%, Grayson 32%, within the ±4.7% margin of error. Back in August, Grayson was ahead of Paul by 37%-26%. This is a Republican-held open seat, currently occupied by retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning.
In the Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo leads state Attorney General Jack Conway by 39%-28%, with a ±4.1% margin of error, compared to a 39%-31% Mongiardo lead in August.
And here are the general election match-ups: Grayson leads Conway by 43%-39%, and he leads Mongiardo by 48%-38%. Conway leads Paul by 44%-39%, and Mongiardo and Paul are tied at 43%-43%. The margin of error is ±2.4%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rand Paul, son of congressman Ron Paul, has picked up a strong head of steam in his bid for Kentucky's open Senate seat. As FEC reports come in, Paul is leading the fundraising race by a considerable margin.
This afternoon, the Paul campaign announced it has raised just over $1 million in the third quarter. The haul is $400,000 more than his chief rival for the GOP nomination, Secretary of State Trey Grayson -- and more than double the fundraising total claimed by the leading Democrat, Lieutenant Gov. Dan Mongiardo.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new Rasmussen poll in the open Senate race in Kentucky, where incumbent GOP Sen. Jim Bunning is retiring, shows a potentially close race in this red state, with high undecideds all around.
There are currently two Republican candidates, Secretary of State Trey Grayson and Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Ron Paul. Competing for the Democratic nomination are Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost as the Senate nominee against Bunning in 2004, and state Attorney General Jack Conway.
Grayson leads Mongiardo by 44%-37%, and Paul leads Mongiardo by 43%-38%. Conway ties with Grayson at 40%-40%, and Conway narrowly leads Paul by 42%-38%. The margin of error is ±4.5%.
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