Mitt Romney

Romney Retreats From 'Unrealistic' Four Percent Unemployment Benchmark

Brian Beutler | May 23, 2012, 2:34PM

Mitt Romney

GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has come a long way from insisting "anything over four percent [unemployment] is nothing to celebrate."

That benchmark, which he set earlier in May, drew criticism from economists of every political persuasion, including GOP loyalists.

On Tuesday, he set a new goal for himself -- one that won't create a hoped-for contrast with President Obama.

"I can tell you that over a period of 4 years, by virtue of the policies that we put in place, we get the unemployment rate down to 6 percent, or perhaps a little lower," Romney said, "depends in part upon the rate of growth of the globe as well as what we're seeing here in the United States, but we get the rate down quite substantially."

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Barack Obama

How Politics Damaged Obama's Recovery (CHART)

Brian Beutler | March 13, 2012, 5:39AM

Last week we brought you this chart, demonstrating that the unemployment rate under President Obama is coming down fairly quickly -- though not as quickly as it did under President Reagan in the months before he won a landslide re-election in 1984.

Here's a major reason why.

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Ronald Reagan

Why Obama Hopes The Recovery Picks Up Even More (CHART)

Brian Beutler | March 9, 2012, 1:53PM

President Barack Obama

Will recent months of economic good news, including today's Department of Labor unemployment report, redound to President Obama's political benefit in 2012?

If the GOP's messaging schizophrenia over the last several weeks is any indication, they seem to think it could. And there are real precedents for this effect. When President Reagan's economy bottomed out and began to improve, it did so early and quickly enough in his term that he pronounced it "morning in America" and won a landslide re-election.

Here's how President Obama's recovery looks by comparison.

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Medicare

The Map That Proves Red Staters Use The Safety Net Too

Brian Beutler | February 22, 2012, 6:17AM

Just over a week ago, the New York Times ran an eye-opening story about a key paradox in U.S. politics: It turns out the biggest critics of federal spending -- Republican base voters -- are some of the biggest beneficiaries of the social safety net.

Expand on that irony, and you'll find that some of the most conservative states in the country are the greatest beneficiaries of transfer payments -- where residents pay on average less in taxes than they receive in federal benefits. Not all "taker" states are red, and not all "giver" states are blue.

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Jobs

Two Charts That Should Terrify Republicans

Brian Beutler | February 20, 2012, 4:52AM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

If Republicans seem spooked to you these days, here's why.

President Obama's political comeback over the past several months aligns neatly with when he began more aggressively attacking the GOP and politicking for economic growth and equality back in September.

But over that same stretch, the economy began moving in the right direction. Indicators of economic growth started moving upward, and the eye-popping indications of economic weakness started moving downward. That's surely had an effect. And if the trends continue, it augurs very well for Obama in the general election.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Senate Passes Payroll Tax Bill Over Broad GOP Opposition

Brian Beutler | February 17, 2012, 12:17PM

Harry Reid (D-NV) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Quick on the heels of the House, the Senate has passed legislation to extend a two percent payroll tax cut through the end of the year.

The final vote was 60-36 with 30 Rs and 6 Ds bucking their leaders to oppose the package. It now goes off to a jubilant White House for President Obama's signature.

The legislation, which also extends emergency unemployment benefits and Medicare reimbursement rates until January 1, 2013.

Payroll Tax Cut

House Passes Payroll Tax Cut Compromise

Brian Beutler | February 17, 2012, 11:41AM

John Boehner

By a comfortable margin, the House of Representatives on Friday passed legislation to extend a two percent payroll tax cut through the end of the year.

The final vote was 293-132, with 91 Republicans and 41 Democrats bucking their party leaders to vote against the package. Five Republicans and four Democrats did not vote.

The bill reflects an agreement between GOP and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate. It also extends emergency unemployment insurance though December, though it reduces the number of weeks in which people looking for work can draw on benefits. And it means that Medicare physicians won't experience a steep pay cut by extending their reimbursement rates for at least 10 months.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Payroll Tax Drama Exposes Rift Between House And Senate GOP

Brian Beutler | February 16, 2012, 1:05PM

The House and Senate have cut a deal to extend the payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician reimbursement rates. But it almost didn't happen. And the near miss is exposing a rift between House GOP leaders and their Senate counterparts.

Late on Wednesday evening, Senate negotiators -- four Democrats, three Republicans -- had a vote count problem. To move the payroll tax cut forward, four of them needed to sign on to the broad agreement. House Dem and GOP negotiators were all lined up. But none of the Senate Republican conferees would put pen to paper. When Democrat Ben Cardin (D-MD) wouldn't sign on either, based on his objection to cuts to federal worker pensions, the Senate found itself one vote shy.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Last-Minute Fights Slow Down Payroll Tax Cut Deal

Brian Beutler and Sahil Kapur | February 15, 2012, 11:31AM

Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)

Barring an unexpected collapse in negotiations, a broad deal to extend the temporary payroll tax cut and other expiring measures will be finalized Wednesday. But with time winding down, top Democrats and Republicans are still fighting over key details -- particularly how to pay for over $50 billion of the approximately $150 billion package.

One of the likely financing provisions would require federal workers to provide greater contributions to their own retirement packages.

"I'm very unhappy with the projected pay-fors which hit average working Americans, otherwise known as federal employees, pretty hard," House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) told TPM and one other reporter in the Capitol Wednesday. "I don't know the exact details and the exact details are being worked on. So from that standpoint I'm not happy."

Hoyer represents a Maryland district that's chockablock with federal workers, which underlies his concerns. Asked if he himself planned to vote for the measure, Hoyer proclaimed "I don't know."

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Harry Reid

As Payroll Fight Wraps Up, Dems Prepare For Next Battle

Brian Beutler | February 14, 2012, 3:47PM

House Democrats will support a GOP bill to extend the expiring payroll tax cut through the end of the year, when Republicans bring it to a vote later this week. That basically puts to rest any remaining doubts that the provision will expire at the end of the month.

Now the fight is on between the parties over whether and how to renew two other expiring provisions -- extended unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician reimbursement rates (the "doc fix") -- before March. And the balance of power in this battle is much less clear.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems Plot Payroll Tax Cut End Game

Brian Beutler | February 13, 2012, 5:29PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

After a few hours of thought, Democrats have decided the GOP's blink on the payroll tax cut is an unvarnished good, not some devious trick.

Republicans have all but agreed to renew the payroll tax cut through the end of the year without paying for it -- a huge tactical swing for them. But they're still insisting that the other expiring measures -- extended unemployment insurance (UI), and Medicare physician reimbursements (the "doc fix") -- are somehow offset with cuts elsewhere.

Having taken the most politically important, and most costly item off the table, are Republicans in the driver's seat in negotiations over extending the other two items? Not necessarily.

A senior Senate Dem aide explains how Democrats might well proceed from here.

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Payroll Tax Cut

GOP Drops Demand For Offsetting Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | February 13, 2012, 2:10PM

Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Facing emboldened Democratic negotiators and a quickly thinning legislative calendar, House Republican leaders have offered to extend the payroll tax holiday through the end of the year without paying for it. The development represents a dramatic reversal for GOP leaders, who nearly allowed the payroll tax cut to lapse in December in part because of their insistence that the package be financially offset.

"Because the president and Senate Democratic leaders have not allowed their conferees to support a responsible bipartisan agreement, today House Republicans will introduce a backup plan that would simply extend the payroll tax holiday for the remainder of the year while the conference negotiations continue regarding offsets, unemployment insurance, and the 'doc fix,'" said GOP leaders in an official statement Monday afternoon.

That's a huge concession to legislative and political realities, and a tacit admission that Republican leaders desparately want to avoid another no-win fight over renewing a tax cut that overwhelmingly benefits the middle class.

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Henry Waxman

Top Democrat Says GOP Will Have To Budge Big Time in Payroll Tax Fight

Brian Beutler | January 18, 2012, 9:51AM

A key Democrat tasked with helping to negotiate a full-year extension of the payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician reimbursements says Republicans will have to move significantly off their December demands or all three will lapse.

"We want to extend the middle class tax cut, we want to extend unemployment insurance, and we want to keep our promise to Medicare beneficiaries that we're going to pay for their doctors, so they can have access to their physicians," Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) told me in a brief interview off the House floor Tuesday. "But I'm not going to support something to pay for that by cutting Medicare or cutting the middle class. We can reach an agreement on these things, but the Republicans are going to have to move."

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Economy

Top White House Economist: Economy Still Vulnerable

Brian Beutler | January 12, 2012, 11:12AM

President Barack Obama

One of the White House's top economists Thursday said recent good economic news is a sign that the economy continues to recover slowly, and suggested it's still susceptible to shocks -- specifically the possibility that Congress will fail to extend the payroll tax cut through the end of the year.

"If you look at the statistics that are coming in, it's clear that they're painting a picture of an economy that is slowly recovering -- slowly but surely recovering," said Council of Economic Advisers chairman Alan Krueger at an event hosted by the Center for American Progress. "I think it's extremely important that we keep that momentum going forward. The steps that I would highlight most importantly are extending the payroll tax cut through the end of the year and extending unemployment insurance benefits. The CBO concluded that of all the measures we've looked at, extending unemployment benefits have the most bang for the buck in terms of supporting demand, raising economic growth and creating jobs."

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Economy

CHART: How The Debt Limit Fight Hurt The Economy, Delayed Recovery

Brian Beutler | January 10, 2012, 11:36AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Last week's surprisingly positive jobs report overshadowed another bit of good news for the economy: last November showed the biggest growth in consumer credit in 10 years. Typically that's a sign that consumer confidence is up, banks are willing to lend, and demand is on the rise.

If you look back at recent monthly data, though, you'll see that this particular green shoot should have poked through the ground months ago, but was stymied by the GOP's debt ceiling hostage drama.

Take a look at the evidence:

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Economy

The Rapid Economic Recovery Republicans Are Praying Against

Brian Beutler | January 9, 2012, 5:20AM

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden

Everything that's supposed to happen in politics this year, and everything that has happened for the last several months, has been premised on the tacit, but seemingly safe assumption: The economy will remain weak for years.

This has underlined Congressional jobs bill theatrics, campaign rhetoric about Obama's record, debates about who's to blame for high unemployment, and which party best represents the interests of the middle class.

But what if that assumption is wrong?

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems Warn GOP: Don't Strangle Recovery By Screwing With Payroll Tax

Brian Beutler | January 6, 2012, 12:24PM

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Top Democrats pulled a little stunt Friday morning, when they tried to upend the House's pro forma session to confer about and debate the payroll tax cut.

But in their remarks to the press afterward, they parlayed today's positive jobs figures into a serious political warning to the GOP: Don't threaten the recovery by playing games with the economy. In essence, today's positive economic news raised the stakes of the payroll tax cut fight -- if Republicans can't get their act together and the tax cut lapses, it will muffle the recovery just as it's finally starting to turn economist's heads.

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Harry Reid

House And Senate Lock In New, Higher-Stakes Fight Over The Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | December 23, 2011, 10:06AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

The end of the payroll tax cut standoff couldn't have been more different from the heat of it: quick, noiseless, drama free.

Without a single objection, the House and Senate passed a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut -- a bill that very closely mirrored the compromise House Republicans had roundly rejected just one week ago. There wasn't even a recorded vote.

It would be a huge mistake, though, to treat Friday's smooth sailing as a harbinger of the payroll tax fight to come.

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Barack Obama

BREAKING: House Republicans Cave, Agree To Two-Month Payroll Tax Cut Extension

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 3:51PM

John Boehner

A top Senate Democratic aide says House Republicans have privately offered up the terms of their surrender on the payroll tax cut, pending sign off from their notoriously unwieldy caucus.

As Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) suggested Thursday morning, it will involve House Republicans passing a temporary extension of the payroll tax cut (and unemployment insurance and reimbursement rates for Medicare physicians) in exchange for Senate Dems agreeing to a formal conference committee to work out a year-long extension of all items.

The temporary extension won't be identical to the one Senate Dems passed. It will differ in very minor technical ways. House Republicans have already rejected the bipartisan Senate compromise bill, so they'll have to draw up essentially the same bill from scratch, pass it in the House and then have the Senate readopt it by unanimous consent.

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Payroll Tax Cut

It's Unanimous: All Stakeholders Say It's Time For House GOP To Cave On Payroll Tax

Brian Beutler | December 22, 2011, 1:42PM

President Barack Obama

If there's one thing that House Democrats, Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans, political strategists of both parties and the White House all agree on, it's that House Republicans need to cave in and end the payroll tax stand off.

Speaking at the White House Thursday, President Obama gave a sloppy wet kiss to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's suggestion that House Republicans fold, with only the thinnest of covers. Essentially, all of the principals involved, except House Republicans, now agree that House Republicans should do what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) proposed all along -- pass the Senate's stopgap bill to extend the payroll tax cut (and other expiring provisions) for two months with the promise that Democrats will work with Republicans on a year-long agreement.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Watch GOPer Literally Walk Out On Dem Attempt To Push Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | December 21, 2011, 11:14AM

Steny Hoyer speaks at press conference with House Ways and Means Committee Democrats. November 30, 2011.

While Republican leaders gathered in Speaker John Boehner's Capitol office Wednesday morning for a photo op with reporters -- hectoring Democrats and making the case that they're on the right side of the payroll tax fight -- an unusual scene played out on the House floor.

In an attempt to illustrate just who's at fault for the payroll tax stalemate Minority Whip Steny Hoyer showed up to ask for a vote on the Senate's compromise bill. Republicans could have simply objected and given Hoyer his talking point. Instead they gave him so much more.

Republicans just ignored Hoyer and refused to hear his unanimous consent request. The fill-in Speaker simply walked away.

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Payroll Tax Cut

How The Payroll Tax Fight Descended Into Chaos

Brian Beutler | December 21, 2011, 5:45AM

John Boehner

The fight over renewing the payroll tax cut into next year has escalated into a multi-front political war, both between Republicans and Democrats, and within the Republican party itself.

But lost in the gamesmanship and the arguments about process, hypocrisy, and leadership are the issues at stake.

So let's review.

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Payroll Tax Cut

In Gamed Vote, GOP 'Rejects' Senate Payroll Tax Cut Compromise

Brian Beutler | December 20, 2011, 1:03PM

Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH)

Thanks to a complicated manipulation of House rules, Republicans Tuesday rejected a broadly bipartisan Senate stopgap plan to extend the current payroll tax cut and other key provisions for two months.

The final vote was 229 - 193. In effect, those voting "yes" were voting to nix the Senate bill and to instead move ahead with House-Senate negotiations to pass a full-year extension of the payroll tax cut, emergency unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician payments, all of which are set to expire on January 1.

After staging a dramatic rebellion from GOP leadership, and putting the payroll tax cut at real risk of expiring, House Republicans are now taking an enormous leap of political faith. By nixing the broadly bipartisan Senate plan, they're hoping to force Senate Democrats' hand and bring them back to Washington to negotiate a 12-month extension of the payroll tax cut, in the final days of the year.

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John Boehner

House GOP Coalesces Around Plan To Reject Bipartisan Payroll Tax Compromise

Brian Beutler | December 19, 2011, 9:29PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

After a much-longer-than-anticipated caucus meeting Monday night, House Republican leaders announced a plan to vote Tuesday to nix a broadly bipartisan Senate stopgap bill to extend the current payroll tax cut for two months. But they won't be doing this with a standard up or down vote.

The development comes after House conservatives launched a full scale rebellion against a Senate bill negotiated by Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that passed with an overwhelming 89 votes.

However House Republicans are aware of the political peril that will come with killing a bipartisan plan to extend the payroll tax cut, and they know they'll likely be held responsible if the tax holiday expires. So they're structuring the votes in a manner that's designed to give their members cover from that charge and, perhaps, preserves their right to reconsider the Senate bill in the coming days.

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Payroll Tax Cut

GOP Goes To War With Itself Over Payroll Cut

Brian Beutler | December 19, 2011, 5:30PM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) conducts a news conference along with fellow GOP members on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on November 30, 2011.

A civil war between House Republicans and their Senate counterparts had gone public over the possibility that the GOP will be held to blame if the current payroll tax cut expires on January 1. The Senators feel abandoned after having voted overwhelmingly on Saturday to pass a two month extension of the holiday -- only to have conservatives in the House GOP conference reject it publicly, and insult the legislation itself.

GOP Leaders on both sides of the Capitol are trying to contain the fallout, but with vulnerable Senate Republicans exposed, and the payroll tax cut set to lapse in less than two weeks, that's a tall order.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Standoff: A Guide To The Ongoing Fight Over The Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | December 19, 2011, 1:25PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

At a Capitol press conference Monday morning, House Speaker John Boehner told reporters he expects his members will kill the bipartisan, Senate-passed, two-month payroll tax cut bill. Instead he said Republicans will insist that Senate Democrats return to Washington and hash out the differences between that package, and the partisan one-year bill the House GOP passed a week ago.

That's setting up a new round in the ongoing fight over how to prevent that tax cut -- and other expiring policies like emergency unemployment benefits, and reimbursement rates for Medicare physicians -- from expiring.

Where we go from here depends on Boehner making good on his threat. To that end House and Senate Democrats, along with key Senate Republicans -- who voted for the compromise measure, and whom Boehner is hanging out to dry -- are pressing the House GOP to follow through on the deal.

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John Boehner

Boehner Faces Key Test After GOP Mutiny Over Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | December 19, 2011, 6:01AM

House Speaker John Boehner with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the foreground.

Long, long ago - well, on Friday night to be exact - it looked like a two month extension of the expiring payroll tax cut was on a glide path to passage in both the House and Senate -- preventing an automatic tax increase on 160 million workers on January 1 and giving Republicans and Democrats until the end of February to negotiate an extension through the end of 2012.

But as soon as the deal was announced, House GOP aides privately speculated that the deal wouldn't fly with the majority of their caucus despite buy in from Speaker John Boehner, Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, all of his deputies and the vast majority of Senate Republicans.

Sure enough, they were right. The deal collapsed in spectacular fashion early Saturday. After passing the Senate with an overwhelming majority, Boehner presented the deal to his members, many of whom -- including Boehner's top lieutenants -- rejected it. Sunday morning, he appeared on NBC to declare it dead on arrival.

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Payroll Tax Cut

GOP Wins On Keystone As Senate Agrees To Two Month Payroll Tax Cut Extension

Brian Beutler | December 16, 2011, 7:17PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

Senate leaders have agreed to a plan that will prevent key policies, including a two percent payroll tax cut for employees, from lapsing on January 1, 2012, according to top aides. But the agreement will only extends the measures for two months, setting Democrats and Republicans up to relitigate this same fight fight early next year. And it comes at a political cost to Democrats who were forced to relent on a provision forcing President Obama to take a public position on the Keystone XL oil pipeline.

The $30 billion package will be paid for by increasing the fees lenders pay to mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It includes two month extensions of the existing two percent payroll tax; emergency unemployment benefits; and the "doc fix" which prevents Medicare physicians from experiencing a deep automatic pay cut.

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Payroll Tax Cut

McConnell Demands Keystone XL In Any Payroll Tax Agreement

Brian Beutler | December 16, 2011, 1:12PM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) conducts a news conference along with fellow GOP members on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on November 30, 2011.

This post was updated at 1:30 p.m.

It's gut check time for Congressional Democrats on the payroll tax cut bill.

Regarding that legislation, Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell emails me with the following statement: "The Leader will not support any bill without the Keystone XL language as part of the agreement."

House Speaker John Boehner is also insisting that he'll amend any Senate-passed payroll tax cut bill to add the Keystone provision to it, if it's not already in there. So Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama now have a choice: stick to their guns and object to the provision -- at the risk of allowing the payroll tax cut (and unemployment insurance and the Medicare "doc fix") to expire? Or give in to the GOP.

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Payroll Tax Cut

How The Payroll Tax Deal Is Likely To Play Out

Brian Beutler | December 16, 2011, 11:41AM

U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) speaks to the press during his weekly press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on December 1, 2011.

With a government shutdown averted, the final item on the Congressional agenda before the year's out is to finalize legislation to renew the payroll tax, extend unemployment benefits, and temporarily fix the Medicare payment formula so that doctors don't take a huge pay cut on the first of the year.

Senate Dem and GOP leaders say they're nearing agreement on such a package, which will be offset with budget cuts and savings, but not with a surtax on millionaires, which Dems finally, officially dropped Thursday night.

So here's the plan now: Later today, the House will pass legislation to fund the government, averting a shutdown. House members will leave town for the weekend while the Senate hammers out its final compromise -- which barring a snag, could pass this weekend with little fuss.

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Government Shutdown

Shutdown Averted As Dem, GOP Leaders Hash Out Payroll Tax Deal

Brian Beutler | December 15, 2011, 9:52PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

House and Senate leaders have reached an agreement on a deal to avoid a government shutdown, and are nearing a separate deal on legislation to renew a soon-to-expire payroll tax cut, unemployment benefits, and a "doc fix" measure to prevent a steep, automatic pay cut to Medicare physicians.

The breakthrough comes just over 24 hours before funding for the government was set to run out, though the principals continue to squabble over policy measures and payfors attached to the payroll bill.

Democrats have officially dropped their push for a small surtax on millionaires as one means of offsetting the cost of the bill. And it's unclear what they got in return, aside from a pledge from Republicans not to jam Democrats with their partisan payroll tax bill.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems, Republicans Negotiate On Two Tracks To Avoid A Government Shutdown

Brian Beutler | December 15, 2011, 1:37PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

Democratic and Republican sources say that a two track process will likely resolve the current standoff on Capitol Hill -- the key questions now are about timing and choreography.

House Republican and Senate Democratic appropriators are close to a deal to avert a government shutdown and fund federal programs through the end of September.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Boehner Outlines Path Forward In Government Shutdown Fight

Brian Beutler | December 15, 2011, 12:21PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

At his weekly Capitol briefing, House Speaker John Boehner outlined a way around the current impasse in Congress that will result in a government shutdown if it's not resolved by Friday night. And it could alleviate Dem fears that Republicans are trying to jam them with partisan legislation that would renew the payroll tax cut and extend unemployment benefits, but with a significant number of poison pills thrown in.

"There's an easy way to untangle all of this," Boehner said in introductory remarks. "First I think Democrats should join Republicans and sign the conference report [on appropriations legislation] to fund our government. House and Senate appropriators have done their jobs. There's an agreement on a bill that would keep the government open. They've worked out all the details and shook hands, and the bill's done. It's bipartisan, it's bicameral, Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate are both ready to vote on this."

Here's part two:

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Government Shutdown

House GOP Pushes The Envelope In Shutdown, Payroll Tax Fight

Brian Beutler | December 15, 2011, 10:40AM

John Boehner

Late Wednesday night -- in the early hours of Thursday morning, really -- House Republicans decided to go all in on the latest government shutdown fight.

Testing the limits of compliance with their own rule that legislation be posted online for three days before a final vote, GOP leaders, over White House objections, unveiled major appropriations legislation that must pass by Friday at the stroke of midnight if Congress is to avoid a government shutdown.

The move raises one key question for each party. Can Republicans pass these appropriations on their own, if Democrats stick to their guns and withhold their votes. And, if the GOP succeeds, will Senate Democrats and President Obama hold their ground and block the legislation until a key policy issues are addressed, and the parties reach agreement on the separate issue of how to extend the current payroll tax cut into next year.

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Unemployment

Dem Governors Press Congress To Fully Extend Unemployment Benefits

Brian Beutler | December 15, 2011, 5:52AM

U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) speaks to the press during his weekly press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on December 1, 2011.

In a letter to key Congressional principals, 16 Democratic governors are seeking the full renewal of extended unemployment benefits, which are set to lapse (along with the payroll tax cut) on January 1, 2012.

"We write to urge you to swiftly pass a one-year extension of the Emergency Unemployment Compensation Program ("EUC") and 100% federal funding of the Extended Benefits ("EB") Program before they expire on December 31," the governors write. "We are extremely concerned about the potential impact of the expiration of these programs on families and our economic recovery as a whole. Unless Congress extends these programs before adjourning for the holidays, nearly 2 million unemployed workers will lose this critical support in January 2012 alone."

House Republicans passed a bill this week that would limit the extended benefits over time. That legislation is at the center of a massive legislative conflict on Capitol Hill that could result in a government shutdown Friday evening.

You can read the full letter below the fold.

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Payroll Tax Cut

GOP Pushes Dems To Accept Medicare Cuts For Current Retirees

Brian Beutler | December 14, 2011, 3:35PM

U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) speaks to the press during his weekly press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on December 1, 2011.

Senate Democrats are under pressure to adopt the payroll tax cut bill House Republicans passed last night -- or something very close to it. President Obama has threatened to veto it, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has declared it dead on arrival in his chamber.

But as explained here and here the issue has now become tied up with funding the government for the rest of the fiscal year. If appropriations legislation doesn't pass by Friday night, the government will shut down. And even if Congress manages to avoid that mishap, the current payroll tax cut -- along with extended unemployment benefits and a patch to prevent Medicare doctors from experiencing a big pay cut -- all expire on January 1. Hamstrung by the GOP's filibuster powers, Dems can't pass an alternative version without GOP help, and so the heat is on them to cave.

Despite all that, here's one reason Democrats might hold firm:

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Government Shutdown

Reid, McConnell Trade Tactics On Senate Floor Over Looming Government Shutdown

Brian Beutler | December 14, 2011, 11:49AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

We're at that point again. The one where Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell try to prove they're not precipitating a government shutdown.

On the Senate floor Wednesday morning, each leader pulled a couple confusing procedural levers designed to prove the other is acting in bad faith.

To recap, last night the House passed partisan legislation to renew the expiring payroll tax holiday, replete with payfors and add-ons that led all but 10 Democrats to reject it. Democrats in the Senate don't want Republicans to leave town for the holidays and jam them with that bill so they're playing a bit of hardball. They've raised objections to a number of riders and provisions in separate legislation to fund the government, which will shutdown Friday night if appropriations aren't passed. If Republicans skip town, they're shutting down the government. And Reid is using this leverage to force Republicans to deal on Democrats' terms on both bills.

So what happened this morning?

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Payroll Tax Cut

House GOP Passes Payroll Tax Cut Bill Obama Has Threatened To Veto

Brian Beutler | December 13, 2011, 6:53PM

Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Despite loud warnings from Senate Democrats and a veto threat from President Obama because of poison pills within the text, House Republicans Tuesday passed legislation to renew a 2 percent payroll tax holiday and extended unemployment benefits of one more year.

The bill passed 234 - 193, with 10 Democrats joining with the Republicans and 14 Republicans pitching in with the Dems.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Dems To GOP: Deal Fairly On Payroll Tax Or Shut Down The Government

Brian Beutler | December 13, 2011, 1:05PM

Senate Democrats and the White House are executing a strategy to prevent House Republicans from jamming them with legislation to extend the current payroll tax cut that's been larded up with GOP goodies, according to White House and Congressional aides. For all practical purposes, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has linked the payroll tax issue -- and other key end-of-the-year issues -- with legislation to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year. And he's presenting Republicans with a choice: deal in good faith on the payroll tax issue, or trigger a government shutdown.

Democrats were worried that House Republicans would close ranks around a version of a payroll holiday that included both must-pass items (such as an extension of unemployment insurance and a patch to prevent Medicare physicians from experiencing a severe pay cut on the first of the year) and GOP poison pills (including a provision forcing the Obama administration to give thumbs-up or thumbs-down to the Keystone XL oil pipeline within 60 days)...then pass it and skip town, leaving Democrats little choice but to swallow their bill whole.

That's exactly the strategy they tried to execute -- and until late Monday it looked like it might work.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Lieberman A 'No' On House Payroll Tax Cut Bill

Brian Beutler | December 13, 2011, 10:15AM

Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

At a breakfast roundtable with reporters hosted by the Christian Science Monitor, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) said he will not cross the aisle and support GOP legislation to extend the current payroll tax cut, which is expected to pass the House later today.

"I wouldn't accept the House bill," Lieberman said.

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