WA-SEN

Rasmussen: Rossi Leads WA-SEN By One Point

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 10:32AM

US Senate candidate Dino Rossi (R-WA)

Republican Dino Rossi has taken a one-point lead over incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) according to the latest poll from Rasmussen. Murray leads in the poll 48-47.

That's a big momentum shift for Rossi, who trailed Murray by seven in Rasmussen's last poll of the race which was taken on Sept. 14. Both polls were conducted among likely voters, using the Rasmussen screen that Democrats have long contended is slanted toward the GOP (Rasmussen has just as long denied this).

Other polling from the contest shows a tightening race as well. The TPM Poll Average shows Murray leading 49.6-47.2.

The last three polls of the race -- two of which were conducted using Ramussen's methodology and automated call system -- have shown the race to be razor-close. A live-interview poll of the race conducted by CNN/Time on Sept. 14 showed Murray leading by 9 points.

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WA-SEN

Fox News Poll: Dem Leads By One In WA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 28, 2010, 3:59PM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

It couldn't be closer in the Washington Senate race, according to a new poll from Fox News. Well, I take it back -- it could be just a little closer. The poll of likely voters conducted for Fox by a branch of the Rasmussen polling empire shows incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Republican nominee Dino Rossi by just one point. Murray is ahead 48-47 according to the new numbers.

There is no previous Fox News poll for direct comparison. The TPM Poll Average shows Murray leading 50.0-47.0.

The Fox poll is the latest in a string to show the race tightening since the state's well-respected Elway Poll showed Murray ahead by nine back on Sept. 12. Since then, automated pollsters Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have shown the race to be closer, though a live telephone interview CNN/Time poll showed the Elway margin holding.

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Bush Tax Cuts

Some Think Reid Bowing To Pressure From Dem Candidates

Christina Bellantoni | September 23, 2010, 1:34PM

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

How did Senate leadership go from all-systems-go on extending tax cuts for the middle class to let's wait for the lame duck? Some aides think it has everything to do with the elections.

A Senate Democratic aide told TPM that while leadership has opted to scrap plans for a tax cuts vote before the election, the caucus isn't so clearly against holding a vote now.

The aide said it's closely divided among the Democrats who want to punt until November and those who want to take a vote now to draw a distinction between their party and the Republicans in clear terms.

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WA-SEN

The Good Democrat: Patty Murray Quietly Surging In WA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 22, 2010, 9:07AM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

While the political earth shifts around her, Sen. Patty Murray appears to have grounded herself in Washington state. While the national press largely passes her race by, Murray -- who at the start of the summer was, according to conventional wisdom, a Vulnerable Democrat -- appears to have built the momentum she needs to comfortably compete for a third term.

Of course, as must always be said at this point, nothing is set in stone. Murray is up against Dino Rossi, one of the few establishment Republican nominee picks to make it past a tea party primary opponent this year. Rossi was, at one time, one of the brightest stars in NRSC chair John Cornyn's 2010 universe, and the party is expected to keep pumping support Rossi's way as long as things stay close.

And they are close.

If Murray was the Vulnerable Democrat in the original Washington state narrative, Rossi was (in the view of most Republican establishment figures) the ideal Formidable Opponent to defeat her. But as election season has proceeded, that storyline has proven to be more and more far-fetched. Murray, quite simply, is winning while Rossi is losing. And it's been that way for awhile.

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WA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Murray Up Five In WA-SEN Race

Howard Polikoff | September 16, 2010, 5:26PM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi by five points in the Washington Senate race, 51%-46%, according to a Rasmussen poll released today.

The recent survey of likely voters is the latest good news for the Washington Democrat. Two other polls this week have each given Murray a nine-point lead against Rossi.

The previous Rasmussen poll of the race, from August 31, gave Rossi a 50%-47% lead.

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WA-SEN

Poll: Dem Murray Leads By 9 in WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 15, 2010, 6:22PM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

A new CNN/Time poll of the Washington Senate race finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) up nine points on her Republican opponent, Dino Rossi.

The survey of likely voters finds Murray leading the race, 53%-44%. There is no prior CNN/Time poll for direct comparison, but these findings come a day after an Elway Poll also showed a nine-point lead for the Democrat. An August 31 Rasmussen poll painted a different picture of the contest, finding Rossi on top of Murray 50%-47%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±3.5 percentage points. The TPM Poll Average has Murray leading Rossi, 49.7%-46.7%.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

WA-SEN

Poll: Dem Murray Out In Front By 9 In WA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 14, 2010, 3:41PM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Sen. Patty Murray (D) is comfortably ahead of her Republican opponent, Dino Rossi, in the Washington state Senate race, according to a poll released last night. The Elway Poll, a respected Washington-based survey company, reports Murray is leading 50-41.

Other polling from the contest suggests the race is a good deal closer than that. The TPM Poll Average shows Murray leading 48.9-47.3. The last Elway poll, taken way back in June, showed Murray ahead of Rossi 47-40.

In his analysis of the new numbers pollster Stuart Elway says things are closer than his numbers may make them appear on first glance.

"Although Murray is at 50% in this survey, there are enough "soft" supporters for each candidate, plus undecided voters and supporters of other candidates -- not to mention time on the calendar -- to determine the eventual outcome," Elway said, according to the Seattle Times.

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

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