2012 elections

Poll: Manchin In Good Shape For 2012 Reelection

Jon Terbush | January 25, 2011, 3:46PM

Joe Manchin (D)

It looks like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is carrying over the momentum from his double-digit win in November's special election, as a PPP poll out today shows him leading three potential Republican challengers for reelection in 2012.

Manchin's only reasonably close contest in the poll came against Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R), whom he led 50% to 41%. Against Rep. David McKinkley--who was just elected to his first term last year--Manchin posts a huge 29-point lead, 57% to 28%. John Raese, the Republican nominee who fell to Manchin in the midterms, also trailed by 29 points, 60% to 31%.

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Joe Manchin

Manchin Apologizes For Missing DADT Vote To Attend Family Christmas Party

Eric Kleefeld | December 21, 2010, 5:31PM

Joe Manchin

Freshman Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has been subjected to much public criticism after he was absent for this past weekend's votes on the DREAM Act and the successful repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" in order to attend a family Christmas party -- which his office described as "a family obligation that he just could not break -- is now apologizing for the fumble.

West Virginia MetroNews Network reports:

"Let me apologize to anybody and everybody within our listening and reading areas. I'm very sorry for missing the two votes," Manchin said during a conference call with reporters Tuesday.

Manchin says his oldest daughter is divorced and has one child from that first marriage. She and her ex-husband take turns when it comes to custody on the Christmas holiday.

...

"Saturday was our Christmas and Saturday evening was our Christmas dinner. I got up Sunday and came back to Washington to make the votes I had to make," he said.

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2012 elections

DeMint Targets Red-State Dem Senators In Fundraising Email

Eric Kleefeld | December 2, 2010, 9:42AM

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)

Sen. Jim DeMint is already hitting the virtual campaign trail for the 2012 Senate races, National Journal reports, with his Senate Conservatives Fund leadership PAC sending out a fundraising email targeting four red-state Democrats who voted against the earmark moratorium.

The targeted Senators are Jon Tester (D-MT), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Kent Conrad (D-ND) and the newly-elected Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who just won a special election and is up for a vote again in 2012. All four of them hail from states that were carried by John McCain in 2008.

"These senators are nice folks but they have ignored the will of the American people and they must be replaced with principled conservatives in 2012," DeMint says in the email. "That's where the Senate Conservatives Fund comes in and it's where you can help."

DeMint then adds that his PAC will need "at least $4 million" for these four targeted races.

WV-SEN

Country Roads Take Dems Home: Manchin Wins West Virginia Senate Seat (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:41PM

Joe Manchin

We now have a result in a key red state -- where Democrats have been saved the loss of the seat that was previously held by the late Dem Senator Robert Byrd since 1958 -- as Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has defeated Republican businessman John Raese.

With 12% of precincts reporting, Manchin leads by 54%-43%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and Fox News.

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2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

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WV-SEN

Polls: Dem Manchin Ahead In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 9:27AM

Two new polls of the West Virginia Senate special election both give Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin a narrow lead against Republican businessman John Raese, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

From Rasmussen: Manchin 50%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Manchin led by 49%-46%.

From Public Policy Polling (D): Manchin 51%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.4% margin of error. In PPP's numbers from last week, Manchin led by 50%-44%.

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WV-SEN

Manchin Web Ads: John Raese Is An Imperial Storm Trooper (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 12:40PM

A new Web video from West Virginia Democratic Senate candidate Joe Manchin, "Lasers"

Democratic Senate candidate Joe Manchin has an amazing set of new Web videos in the West Virginia Senate race -- possibly the best Web-based campaign spots of the whole cycle. Remember that fun moment when Republican nominee John Raese said that the country needs "1,000 laser systems put in the sky, and we need it right now," and said it would only cost $20 billion? Well, now Manchin's campaign is connecting that to Raese's other positions -- and also to the Death Star and those white-armored storm troopers.

"We need 1,000 laser systems put int he sky, and we need it right now," Raese is shown saying in the video clip.

Then in comes that John Williams Darth Vader theme music, images of people in storm trooper costumes on parade, and laser beams from the sky wiping out a public school, clean drinking water and a Social Security card. The final image: John Raese's head on a storm trooper body, with laser beams raining down upon Earth in the background.

"John Raese's ideas aren't just crazy -- they're downright dangerous," the announcer says.

And there are more, too.

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WV-SEN

Manchin Ad: 'Both Democrats And Republicans Are Dead Wrong' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:28PM

Joe Manchin campaign ad, "Fighting for West Virginia"

Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, continuing his theme of distancing himself from national Democrats in this anti-Obama state. For this spot, Manchin attacks both the national Democrats and the Republicans, positioning himself against each of them.

"I'm as mad as you are with what's going on in Washington. Both Democrats and Republicans are dead wrong. They put their party first, their personal agenda second, and our country last. And they want you to believe I'm going to be a rubber stamp for that? Not a chance. That's not how we've made things better in West Virginia.

"Give me the chance to shake up Washington, just like I did here as governor. I'm Joe Manchin. I approve this message, because I've always put West Virginia first, and I always will."

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WV-SEN

DSCC Ad: 'Would John Raese Represent West Virginia -- Or Florida?' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 3:56PM

Ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Florida"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, casting Republican nominee John Raese as an out-of-touch businessman -- who they say really lives in Florida.

"Would John Raese represent West Virginia -- or Florida?" the announcer says. "The Raeses have a mansion in Palm Beach, and signed an official form calling Florida their home. His wife even registered to vote there.

"So maybe he should be Florida's Senator, because John Raese just doesn't get us. Opposing the minimum wage, and siding with China on steel. That might be okay with the CEOs at the club in Florida. But around here, it's just out of touch."

The TPM Poll Average gives Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin a narrow lead of 47.3%-46.4%.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Manchin Retakes Lead In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 1:03PM

Joe Manchin (D)

In a piece of rare good news for the Democrats, the new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Gov. Joe Manchin, a relatively conservative Dem, retaking the lead over Republican businessman John Raese in the special election to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 49%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous survey from last week, Raese enjoyed a healthy lead of 50%-43%. The last time Rasmussen had Manchin ahead was in September.

This race has pitted Manchin's widespread popularity as governor against President Obama's deep unpopularity in the state. Manchin has taken various steps to distance himself from the national Democrats -- most notably when he taped a commercial in which he took a rifle and shot a "cap and trade bill." He may have also gained some traction by casting Raese as a "crazy" right-wing extremist.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a narrow lead of 47.3%-46.4%.

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WV-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By Two Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 10:10AM

West Virginia Senate candidates John Raese (R) and Joe Manchin (D)

The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Republican businessman John Raese holding on to a narrow lead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from last week, Raese led by a similar 48%-45%.

This race has been neck and neck, as two factors compete against each other: Manchin's profile as a relatively conservative Democrat and his very high approval rating as governor, at 69% in this particular poll, compared to President Obama's similarly high disapproval in this state, which is at 65% in this survey.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Manchin an edge of just 46.7%-46.5%.

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2010 elections

Manchin Ad: 'John Raese's Ideas Are Crazy' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 5:27PM

Ad from. Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV), "Good Message"

Democrat Joe Manchin has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, attacking a variety of Republican John Raese's right-wing positions.

The ad cuts together different video clips of Raese speaking: "I've already been defeated three times. That's a pretty good message from West Virginia, I think. But I'm gonna tell you this...I don't agree with minimum wage...I'm in the business of not providing jobs. I'm in the business of making money...We don't need the Department of Education...We need 1,000 laser systems put in the sky -- and we need it right now."

An announcer cuts in: "John Raese's ideas are crazy," with the word "CRAZY" across the screen.

Then back to Raese: "Why am I running? Do I need this?"

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Manchin a lead of 46.9%-46.0%, in a race that has been neck-and-neck for several weeks.

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WV-SEN

PPP Poll: Manchin Leads By Six Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 2:55PM

The new survey of the West Virginia Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin the lead against Republican businessman John Raese.

The numbers: Manchin 50%, Raese 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from three weeks ago, Manchin had taken a lead of 48%-45%, after Raese had been ahead two weeks before that.

This race pitted Manchin's massive popularity as governor against President Obama's equally formidable unpopularity as president in this state. The polls have been very close, with alternating bouts of momentum by both Manchin and Raese.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a lead of 46.9%-46.0%.

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WV-SEN

DSCC Ad Hits Raese On Minimum Wage, Trade (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 4:55PM

From a DSCC campaign ad, "Around Here"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, attacking Republican businessman John Raese as being out of touch with working people.

"John Raese opposes the minimum wage. But around here, we know it's about a second job to help pay bills," the announcer says. "Raese opposes cracking down on China's unfair trade practices. We know it's about fairness, a chance to compete. And Raese signed a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations sending jobs overseas. We know 'Made in America' should mean something again. And we know, West Virginia can't afford John Raese."

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a narrow lead of 46.8%-45.6% over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.

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WV-SEN

NRSC Ad: Manchin Is 'Hunting For Votes' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2010, 1:52PM

From a NRSC campaign ad, "Hunting Trip"

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, accusing Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin of "camouflaging" his support for President Obama.

The ad uses a video of clip of Manchin with a hunting rifle -- but no camo gear -- lifted from Manchin's ad in which he distanced himself from national Dems by shooting a paper labeled as "Cap And Trade Bill."

"Joe Manchin is on a hunting trip -- he's hunting for votes," the announcer says. "But Manchin's camouflaging his support of President Obama's worst policies. Joe Manchin supported Obama's government takeover of health care. Joe Manchin supported Obama's stimulus bill. It wasted billions and created more debt. A good governor -- has a bad idea. Send Joe Manchin back to Charleston, and send a message to Obama."

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican nominee John Raese a lead of 46.8%-45.6%.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By 7 Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2010, 1:10PM

West Virginia Senate candidates John Raese (R) and Joe Manchin (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race gives Republican businessman John Raese a strong lead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 50%, Manchin 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese was only ahead by 49%-46%.

Despite Manchin's high popularity, Raese has taken the lead in many polls as a result of President Obama's deep unpopularity in the state. Raese's momentum was recently blunted as a result of a fumbled ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which was taped in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors. But in this poll, at least, he appears to have recovered his footing.

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 46.8%-45.6%.

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WV-SEN

Fox Poll: GOPer Raese's Lead Shrinks To Three Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 19, 2010, 12:23PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows Republican businessman John Raese just holding on to a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the contest to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.8% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from two weeks ago, Raese had a wider lead of 48%-43%.

Raese had previously enjoyed a strong lead over Manchin, even though the Dem is a very popular governor, because of President Obama's overwhelming unpopularity in the state. However, Raese's momentum was recently blunted as a result of an ad from his own party, via the National Republican Senatorial Committee, that was taped in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin an edge of 46.5%-45.7%.

Sarah Palin

Palin Endorses Raese In Pennsylvania -- But He's From West Virginia

Brian Beutler | October 19, 2010, 12:16PM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Pennsylvania voters can't afford cap and trade legislation, says Sarah Palin. And that's why they need to send Republican John Raese to the Senate.

Except that John Raese is the Republican nominee in West Virginia.

Welcome to the latest Sarah Palin Twitter #fail.

This morning, the former half-term Alaska Governor turned kingmaker and kingbreaker in GOP politics told her hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers: "Pennsylvania:makes sense 2 send GOP 2 DC 2 avoid PA economic disaster that will occur under Obama/Pelosi Cap & Tax scheme; workers need Raese."

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WV-SEN

Mountaineers On Parade: The West Virginia Senate Debate

Eric Kleefeld | October 18, 2010, 10:59PM

West Virginia Senate candidates John Raese (R) and Joe Manchin (D)

The candidates for Senate in West Virginia met tonight for their one and only debate -- if it can be called a debate. For the most part, the four candidates seemed to use the night as an opportunity to present themselves for the first time to the voting audience. Republican businessman John Raese pitched himself as a man of the right; Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin put himself forward as a man of the commonsense middle; Mountain Party candidate Jesse Johnson, the candidate of the state's Green Party affiliate, was a man of the left; and Constitution Party candidate Jeff Becker was a man of the loony bin.

To be sure, there were attacks and replies between the candidates. But in many ways, even this was a part of them presenting themselves to the public. Going into the debate, the TPM Poll Average gave Manchin a very narrow lead of 46.8%-45.2%. So how did they do?

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WV-SEN

Poll: Dem Manchin Leads By 10 Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2010, 11:08AM

Joe Manchin (D)

A new Orion Strategies/Marshall University poll of the West Virginia Senate race has some good news for Democrats -- with Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin sporting a double-digit lead against Republican businessman John Raese in the contest to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 48%, Raese 38%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.6% margin of error. There is no prior Orion/Marshall poll for direct comparison.

The TPM Poll Average now gives Manchin a lead of 46.8%-45.2.

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WV-SEN

NRSC Admits Responsibility For 'Hicky' Casting Call, Fires Vendor

Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2010, 12:33PM

Ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, "Stop Obama"

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is now admitting something they had previously denied: Their ad production company, Jamestown Associates, was directly responsible for the infamous casting call for "hicky" looking actors for an ad in the West Virginia Senate race.

The NRSC had previously denied responsibility for the casting call, pinning the blame on a subcontractor who handled the casting. But as Politico reported this morning, the casting agent Kathy Wickline has produced an e-mail from Jamestown Associates, containing that very language: "We are going for a 'Hicky' Blue Collar look. These characters are from West virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks."

Now, as Greg Sargent reports, the NRSC is admitting that their vendor was responsible -- and sacking them immediately -- and that the NRSC's previous statement to the contrary for the past week were "incorrect."

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WV-SEN

Kaine On Manchin's Rifle Ad: 'I'm Not Wild About It'

Christina Bellantoni | October 14, 2010, 11:37AM

Joe Manchin and Tim Kaine

DNC Chairman Tim Kaine said this morning he doesn't love West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin's much ballyhooed Senate ad featuring the Democrat firing his rifle at the "cap-and-trade" climate bill, but the gun isn't the problem.

"I'm not wild about it," Kaine told reporters at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast this morning.

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WV-SEN

DSCC Ad Attacks Raese On Jobs, Minimum Wage In WV-SEN Race (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2010, 10:46AM

From a DSCC campaign ad, "Spreadsheet."

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, employing a populist touch to attack Republican nominee John Raese as an out-of-touch big businessman.

"Around here, jobs are more than where you work. They're food on the table, and a better quality of life," the announcer says. "John Raese doesn't get that. How could he not pay worker's comp? Eliminate the minimum wage? Or sign a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations sending jobs overseas?

"John Raese's job is CEO. So for him, maybe jobs are just another line on a spreadsheet. But around here, we know better."

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 48.4%-45.4% over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.

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WV-SEN

CNN/Time Poll: WV-SEN Race Tied

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2010, 6:17PM

The new CNN/Time poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows a tie in the contest to succeed the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd. Furthermore, the race could potentially be spoiled -- though who knows how -- by a left-wing third party with a very rural-friendly name.

The poll has Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese tied at 44% each, plus 5% for Jesse Johnson with the "Mountain Party," the state affiliate of the Green Party. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. There is no prior CNN/Time poll of this race for direct comparison.

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 48.4%-45.4%.

WV-SEN

One GOPer's Proposal To Save The World: '1,000 Lasers' (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 13, 2010, 3:14PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

West Virginia's Republican nominee for Senate, John Raese, has a plan. And that plan is to put 1,000 lasers in orbit to save us all.

Not 999. Not 1,001. 1,000 frickin' lasers.

"If there is a rogue missile aimed at our country, we have 33 minutes to figure out what we're going to do," Raese said told the crowd at a recent campaign stop, according to NBC's Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann. "We are sitting with the only technology in the world that works and it's laser technology. We need 1,000 laser systems put in the sky and we need it right now. That is [of] paramount importance."

The cost of such a program? A cool "$20 billion," according to Raese.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese's Lead Shrinks To Three Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2010, 1:35PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

The new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows Republican businessman John Raese still ahead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, but with his lead tightening from where it was before.

The numbers: Raese 49%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese led by 50%-44%.

This poll comes in the wake of a recent fumble by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which launched an ad that was produced in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors. (The NRSC condemned the casting call when it was first reported, saying that it was done without their knowledge by a subcontractor.)

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WV-SEN

Firefighters Ad In WV-SEN: 'Joe Manchin Doesn't Hire Philadelphia Actors To Play Hicks' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 2:31PM

Fire Fighters TV Ad "Responds to Carpetbagger John Raese's Attack Ad"

The International Association of Fire Fighters labor union has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, hitting back at the now-infamous ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee that was produced outside the state, using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors. And this new ad features blue-collar guys boasting that they're real firefighters, and they're actually from West Virginia!

One firefighter declares: "I'm a Huntington firefighter. And like Joe Manchin, West Virginia is my home."

Another: "I'm a Dunbar firefighter. Joe Manchin doesn't hire Philadelphia actors to play hicks in his ads."

And another: "I'm a Charleston firefighter, and I heard Florida John Raese got a tax break on his Palm Beach mansion."

As a point of clarification, it wasn't Raese who put up the ad featuring "hicky" actors to show West Virginia voters that he was on their side. It was the national Republicans, who have said that the casting call was produced through a subcontractor without their approval.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Raese a lead of 47.9%-45.1%.

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WV-SEN

Raese On 'Hicky' Ad: 'There Is No Such Thing As A Perfect Campaign'

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 2:05PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

Appearing on ABC News's Top Line, West Virginia Republican Senate nominee John Raese tried to brush off the recent flap over a national Republican ad in this key race, which much to the party's embarrassment was produced using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors.

Raese said that the controversy over the ad "doesn't throw me off any rails." He also added: "There is no such thing as a perfect campaign. Have you ever met anybody who ran a perfect campaign? You let me know about it."

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WV-SEN

PPP Poll: Dem Manchin Retakes Lead In WV-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 11:17AM

In a rare piece of good news for Democrats, the new survey of the West Virginia Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) has Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin retaking the lead over Republican businessman John Raese, in the big-ticket race to succeed the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 48%, Raese 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from three weeks ago, Raese led by 46%-43%.

The poll continues to find Manchin being extremely popular as governor, with a 68% approval and only 22% disapproval. However, he continues to be hindered by President Obama's extraordinary unpopularity here, with an approval rating of 33%-61%.

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WV-SEN

Meet John Raese: Wealthy Businessman, Frequent Candidate -- And Maybe Robert Byrd's Replacement

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 8:32AM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

So just who is John Raese, the Republican businessman who could potentially be West Virginia's next Senator, if he wins the special election for the seat formerly held for over 50 years by the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd? He's a man who has been longtime political fixture in the state, but never actually winning anything -- except perhaps until now.

Raese comes from a family with a large presence in West Virginia business. He is president and CEO of Greer Industries, a major mining company, and also president of the West Virginia Radio Corporation, which owns more than 25 radio stations. He has run for office three times before, each time unsuccessfully.

He first ran for Senate way back in 1984, losing by a narrow 52%-48% against Democrat Jay Rockefeller in an open-seat race, which was held in the middle of the 1984 Reagan landslide. He later ran for governor in 1988, challenging the scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Arch Moore in the GOP primary, losing by 53%-47%. He ran for Senate again in 2006, challenging Byrd -- and spent $2.2 million of his own money -- ultimately losing by a very wide margin of 64%-36%.

With a Stassenesque electoral record like that, one would think of Raese as a sacrificial lamb on his way to yet another defeat. But maybe not this year -- as of right now, he's ahead, with a current lead of 49.4%-43.4% in the TPM Poll Average against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin. And this is despite the fact that Manchin remains an overwhelmingly popular figure as governor.

"I've been a conservative in West Virginia before that was popular," Raese told CNN. "I've seen a change in West Virginia. Not a change in John Raese, but a change in West Virginia and a change in America.

Read more »

WV-SEN

Joe Manchin Promises To 'Take On' Obama, Shoots Climate Bill (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | October 11, 2010, 1:39PM

Campaign ad from West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D), "Dead Aim"

Gov. Joe Manchin literally takes aim and fires upon Democrats' climate legislation in a new television ad, promising voters if they elect him to the U.S. Senate next month he'll "take dead aim at the cap-and-trade bill, because it's bad for West Virginia."

In a remarkable ad for a Democrat, Manchin is seen wearing sportsman-style clothes and touting his NRA endorsement as he loads a rifle.

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WV-SEN

Manchin WV-SEN Ad: 'John Raese Thinks We're Hicks' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | October 9, 2010, 5:34PM

Joe Manchin

West Virginia Democratic Senate candidate Gov. Joe Manchin is quickly trying to capitalize on the news that a casting call for an ad against him sought "hickey" actors. A new ad by Manchin's campaign hammers his Republican opponent John Raese, and puts the blame for the incident on Raese's shoulders.

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WV-SEN

GOP Ad-Men Sought 'Hicky' Actors For West Virginia Senate Race Spot (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 7, 2010, 9:30AM

Ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, "Stop Obama"

Oh, this is rich. As the Politico reports, the National Republican Senatorial Committee's advertising people sought out just the right kind of actors for a recent ad in the West Virginia Senate race -- the "hicky" kind.

(Late Update: The NRSC reportedly plans to pull the ad -- and are vigorously disavowing the casting call. "No one at the NRSC, or associated with the NRSC, had anything to do with the language used in this casting call," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh. "We do not support it, and suffice to say, we would encourage our contractors to never work with this outside agency again.")

The ad featured three blue-collar guys at a diner, talking about how the only way to stop President Obama was to vote against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin in the race for Senate. It appears that the ad was shot in Philadelphia, not in West Virginia, and sought out that key "hicky" actor type, in the GOP's efforts to show West Virginia voters that the party is on their side.

"We are going for a 'Hicky' Blue Collar look," a casting call for the ad said. "These characters are from West Virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks."

And just to further damage their street cred, the casting call misspelled a key down-home brand name, asking for actors with "John Deer [sic] hats (not brand new, preferably beat up)."

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WV-SEN

West Virginia Gov (And Dem Senate Candidate) Manchin Sues Obama Admin. Over Coal Policy

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2010, 4:41PM

President Barack Obama and West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin (D).

Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV), the Democratic nominee in the West Virginia Senate special election, is now taking a very bold step -- his administration is suing the Obama White House over its coal mining policies.

As the Associated Press reports:

Manchin on Wednesday denied any connection between the federal lawsuit and his campaign to finish the remaining two years of the late U.S. Sen. Robert C. Byrd's term.

The Democratic governor said the suit was already being prepared amid rising concern that U.S. coal policies harm West Virginia's mining economy months before Byrd died in June. The state hired a Charleston law firm to prepare for a suit and state Environmental Protection Secretary Randy Huffman said in June that litigation was imminent.

"Over the past year and a half, we have been fighting President Obama's administration's attempts to destroy the coal mining industry," Manchin said at a news conference Wednesday.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By Six Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2010, 1:02PM

West Virginia Senate candidate John Raese (R)

Another Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Republican businessman John Raese extending his lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the race for the Senate seat that was held for over 50 years by Democrat Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 50%, Manchin 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese had just taken a narrow edge of 48%-46%.

Polls have consistently shown that Manchin is very popular, and few would question the idea that he is the best candidate the Democrats could have recruited for the race. However, President Obama remains highly unpopular in this state, Republicans are clearly capitalizing on this very effectively.

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 49.4%-43.4%.

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WV-SEN

NRSC Ad In West Virginia: 'A Vote For Manchin Is A Vote For Obama' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 5, 2010, 3:41PM

From a NRSC campaign ad, "Stop Obama."

The National Republican Senatorial Committee's new ad in the West Virginia special Senate election sums up their message in this race. The ad doesn't promote the Republican nominee, businessman John Raese, and doesn't even employ all that much vigor to attack the Democratic nominee, the popular Gov. Joe Manchin. Instead the on-screen text simply says: "A vote for Manchin is a vote for Obama."

Keep in mind that in the 2008 election, Obama only received 43% of the vote in this state, and the TPM Poll Average currently gives him only a 30.3% approval rating here, with 64.9% disapproval. As a result, the Obama card is an obvious way for Republicans to go in this historically Democratic state, in the race to get the Senate seat that was held for over 50 years by the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The ad features three blue-collar men in a diner, talking about how much they don't like Obama.

"Joe's not bad as governor, but when he's with Obama--" says one man.

"He turns into 'Washington Joe,'" another says.

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WV-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By Five Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 5, 2010, 11:00AM

The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race is giving Republican businessman John Raese a solid lead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no previous Fox News poll of this race. However, this poll was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, which performs made-to-order robopolls. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese led by 48%-46%.

One key number is that Manchin is actually very popular, with a 66% approval rating and only 24% disapproval of his job as governor, while Raese's personal favorable rating is at only 42%-37%. But on the other hand, President Obama's rating here is a ghastly 29%-65% -- and that is likely what's dragging Manchin down and bringing Raese up.

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 48.1%-43.6%.

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WV-SEN

DSCC Ad Attacks GOPer Raese In WV-SEN (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 10:50AM

Ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Opposes"

In a sign of national Democratic concern about the West Virginia Senate race, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new TV ad attacking the Republican nominee, businessman John Raese, for his right-wing stances on economic issues in this blue-collar state.

"John Raese. He wants to eliminate the minimum wage. Failed to pay workers compensation for on-the-job injuries," the announcer says. "But one thing John Raese does support: A pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations who ship our jobs overseas. It's true. Protecting tax breaks that reward corporations for sending our jobs overseas.

"West Virginia working families, we can do better -- and we have to."

This ad comes on the heels of recent polls that have shown Raese narrowly leading Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin in the race thanks to the state's high disapproval of President Obama. For example, a Public Policy Polling (D) survey last week put Raese ahead by 46%-43%, and a Rasmussen poll released this morning puts him ahead by 48%-46%. Republican advertising has aggressively tied Manchin to Obama, so the Dems are firing back by going after Raese's background in big business.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese Leads Manchin By Two Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 9:20AM

In a big development in the West Virginia Senate race, the new Rasmussen poll shows Republican businessman John Raese taking a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.0% margin of error. The previous Rasmussen poll from last week was quite different, with Manchin ahead by 50%-43%.

From the pollster's analysis: "This race has been closer than expected for weeks as Manchin, despite his popularity with voters in the state, faces an electorate that is even unhappier with the national Democratic agenda than voters in most other parts of the country."

2010 elections

AFL-CIO Drops Millions Of Mailers In Key Races

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 4:50PM

Richard Trumka, President of the AFL-CIO

The AFL-CIO is continuing to throw its weight into the midterm elections, Politico reports, with a whole new load of mailers in different key races.

All in all, the AFL-CIO is dropping 3.5 million mailers into 66 races this week. Among the key picks:

• A mailer in the Connecticut Senate race, featuring a pro-wrestler in a mask, with the text proclaiming: "Don't let Linda McMahon put the smack down on Connecticut workers.

• A mailer in the West Virginia Senate race, hammering Republican businessman John Raese and promoting Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin: "After the deadliest mining disaster in 40 years, one Senate candidate wants to 'unshackle' management from safety regulations, and one is fighting to make them stronger."

• A mailer in Florida's 8th District, home to the fiery liberal Dem Congressman Alan Grayson, attacking Republican candidate Dan Webster for wanting to renew the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy: "Wall street wrecked our economy, and America's middle class paid the price. Now, Daniel Webster wants to repeat the past."